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Captain Shortwave

SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

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16 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

God I really hope this verifies, living 6 miles from the North Sea Snow machine it has been 8 long years since the last Thundersnow here after 2 episodes in 2009 and 2010.

I just want to make a video like this one below :rofl:

 

love that video, we had thundersnow here last year, first time in my life i'd seen that

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What a miserable day here today, such a contrast to the last three!

Foggy up at home when I left this morning and persistent rain/drizzle all day long down in town. Breeze is chilly but certainly warmer than the last few days.

Still exciting model watching going on though I see! Literally wishing for this week to be gone and get to Friday evening so I can begin snowflake watch prep (involves gin and snacks) :rofl:

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Just now, lottiekent said:

Still exciting model watching going on though I see! Literally wishing for this week to be gone and get to Friday evening so I can begin snowflake watch prep (involves gin and snacks) :rofl:

My prep will be going to asda on friday to get a few things in preparation, dont need bread or milk so will watch the others fighting over the last loaf while i peacefully stock up on fresh fish for my bird.

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Oh my days mad thread going CRAZY a happy crazy thank goodness

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Yep ECM finally smelling the coffee and we now have everyone aboard the happy ship, all ready to sail now

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just watched lookeast  no mention of any  snow that went up to next tuesday!!

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5 minutes ago, tinybill said:

just watched lookeast  no mention of any  snow that went up to next tuesday!!

Now Meteogroup have the contract for providing data for BBC forecasts, I wonder if the quality of forecasting will change? Look east forecast and that on the website look totally wrong going by what the models are showing currently. 

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Looks like the cold will arrive, question is, will we get snow?  It would be gutting to finally have an easterly only for it to remain dry!

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Just the smallest hint of the unspeakable "TS" word off the back of that 12z ECM run

us_model-en-999-0_modez_2018021912_240_5137_108.thumb.png.836e15da9e607008c0a7b13ba750f00b.png

Though nothing especially impressive totals wise it should all of course be taken with a huge dollop of salt at this range

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4 minutes ago, suffolkboy_ said:

Now Meteogroup have the contract for providing data for BBC forecasts, I wonder if the quality of forecasting will change? Look east forecast and that on the website look totally wrong going by what the models are showing currently. 

Maybe they just don't want to start a panic, they want all the bread and milk to themselves.

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Just been in the MAD thread, and my God, are they excited little kids or what. They are going so overboard with this cold snap. The Meto dont seem overly excited just yet. Everyone knows things will go tits up nearer the time, as it's still way off and the charts throw up these pictures on purpose I'm sure just to wind these people up. ! 

I do love watching them get so excited then the very next day,when the charts change, and they always do, they become  almost suicidal.

i am aware that there is now cross Model  agreement on the cold Easterly arriving, and I'm having a bad day hence my moody rant.

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27 minutes ago, tinybill said:

just watched lookeast  no mention of any  snow that went up to next tuesday!!

lookeast aren't looking east enough

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9 minutes ago, fatyido said:

Just been in the MAD thread, and my God, are they excited little kids or what. They are going so overboard with this cold snap. The Meto dont seem overly excited just yet. Everyone knows things will go tits up nearer the time, as it's still way off and the charts throw up these pictures on purpose I'm sure just to wind these people up. ! 

I do love watching them get so excited then the very next day,when the charts change, and they always do, they become  almost suicidal.

i am aware that there is now cross Model  agreement on the cold Easterly arriving, and I'm having a bad day hence my moody rant.

Thats because the meto only jump on at a short range, give it a few days and they will be the same as they are always behind on the models.

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3 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

lookeast aren't looking east enough

they need a telescope 

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23 minutes ago, snowking said:

Just the smallest hint of the unspeakable "TS" word off the back of that 12z ECM run

us_model-en-999-0_modez_2018021912_240_5137_108.thumb.png.836e15da9e607008c0a7b13ba750f00b.png

Though nothing especially impressive totals wise it should all of course be taken with a huge dollop of salt at this range

Yes! Huge Salt dollops on steps and driveway !

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Grotty day here, rain on and off all day and grey skies. Tomorrow doesn’t look great, either. 

After that.......if the crazy posts on the mad thread are to be believed, we are on the cusp of The Day After Tomorrow. All these, admittedly amazing charts being churned out still show the real cold in FI, so I’m not taking anything for granted lol. It’s gone tits up waaaay too many times. Pretty cold if modelling is correct, though! 

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54 minutes ago, tinybill said:

just watched lookeast  no mention of any  snow that went up to next tuesday!!

Then their not looking east :rofl:

edit - Lassie beat me to it 30mins ago :pardon:

Edited by Mark wheeler

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39 minutes ago, Dbarb said:

Thats because the meto only jump on at a short range, give it a few days and they will be the same as they are always behind on the models.

That’s not strictly true, they obviously have a much better understanding than us of the models and have access to far more data. 

Simply, they won’t tout any severe cold until they are 100 % sure it will happen. If they call a big freeze with disruption and it doesn’t happen the implications could be massive for them. I’d imagine they will start putting out tentative warnings come the end of the week. 

BBC forecasts on the other hand are a bit of a joke, may as well look at an app past 3 days. 

Edited by shotski
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Just now, shotski said:

That’s not strictly true, they obviously have a much better understanding than us of the models and have access to far more data. 

Simply, they won’t tout any severe cold until they are 100 % sure it will happen. If the call a big freeze with disruption and it doesn’t happen the implications could be massive for them. I’d imagine they will start putting out tentative warnings come the end of the week. 

Have you been on there website there already releasing press releases about the coming cold spell!!!

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3 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:

Have you been on there website there already releasing press releases about the coming cold spell!!!

Ahead of schedule 😁

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10 minutes ago, shotski said:

That’s not strictly true, they obviously have a much better understanding than us of the models and have access to far more data. 

Simply, they won’t tout any severe cold until they are 100 % sure it will happen. If they call a big freeze with disruption and it doesn’t happen the implications could be massive for them. I’d imagine they will start putting out tentative warnings come the end of the week. 

BBC forecasts on the other hand are a bit of a joke, may as well look at an app past 3 days. 

 You said APP 😂😂😂😂

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Well one more day of horrid drizzle then hopefully we will see a drier flow move in from the continent though it will be slack. So variable cloud and a mix of sunshine with overnight frost and fog. It looks like the weekend will be when the easterly starts to crank up with a few showers before the deep cold potentially arrives by Monday. 

It is coming, this time.... :cold:

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8 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Well one more day of horrid drizzle then hopefully we will see a drier flow move in from the continent though it will be slack. So variable cloud and a mix of sunshine with overnight frost and fog. It looks like the weekend will be when the easterly starts to crank up with a few showers before the deep cold potentially arrives by Monday. 

It is coming, this time.... :cold:

#springonhold 

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1 hour ago, snowking said:

Just the smallest hint of the unspeakable "TS" word off the back of that 12z ECM run

us_model-en-999-0_modez_2018021912_240_5137_108.thumb.png.836e15da9e607008c0a7b13ba750f00b.png

Though nothing especially impressive totals wise it should all of course be taken with a huge dollop of salt at this range

It would be tenfold that 4cm imo in places I don’t have any interest in these charts. Not only Thames Streamer there’d also be a risk of Thunder Snow, steep lapse rates.... frequent, heavy, snow shower heaven! 

 

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Thinking about stocking milk, bread, salt and other things right now before everyone else catches wind of the beast.

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