SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

[Paul1968]

Never mind the MOD thread cobblers of+ so many hours,we in the SE could well be on the cusp of something quite memorable next week

[SMU]

The nose of the Eastery at just 78 hr now

 

The chris fawkes tweet just underpinning what we already new...

[Froze were the Days]

10 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

Oh my! Great tweet from BBC forecaster Chris Fawkes. Embedded troughs.... heavy snow for Eastern England....!! Bring it on!

 

Nice to Chris has no splinters up his bum!...unlike a few others

[Coopsy]

Interesting forecast from the met office. Is that a channel low they refer to? 

[Paul Sherman]

5 minutes ago, c00ps said:

Interesting forecast from the met office. Is that a channel low they refer to? 

I would say so yes, looks like they are expecting a push up from the SW into the Block.

[Met4Cast]

BBC are off of the fence - Latest forecasts talking about the cold air early next week and they've even started mentioning the forbidden S word.

[Paul1968]

Snow or Siberian? 

[Paul Sherman]

6 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

BBC are off of the fence - Latest forecasts talking about the cold air early next week and they've even started mentioning the forbidden S word.

Sleet ?

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

Sleet ?

Ugh!

Imagine if we had another Feb 2009 scenario..

[Hotspur62]

Yeah saw Tomasz on News 24 and he is a coldie at heart and graphics sais Chance of snow and very cold with him emphasing our weather"could" come from Siberia!!Even my daughter has asked me is it going to snow next week and she has no interest in the weather at all-She is only asking as she hopes the school is closed and she can go sledging with her mates.One problem we only have one sledge and that is mine lol!!

I know we are a week away from potential snow but we all got to dream haven't we?

[Paul Sherman]

Nah - I think this one will affect a much wider audience, that cold pool was quite small in comparison to this one, this does have a real look of 1987 to it must admit. Add to that the strength of the sun enhancing those showers and anywhere could cop a massive dumping really from Kent, Sussex across to Hampshire and the Estaury westwards along with further north of our region over Suffolk, Norfolk and westwards into Beds Herts and Midlands.

The only thing putting me off at the moment is I have a nagging feeling this could still drop too far south into France, Spain etc.

Hope I am wrong and everything falls into place

[Froze were the Days]

25 minutes ago, c00ps said:

Interesting forecast from the met office. Is that a channel low they refer to? 

Sounds a bit akin to what the GFS op runs have been showing...

[lawrenk]

GFS 18 seems like another upgrade.

-17s into Kent.

[Wivenswold]

52 minutes ago, tinybill said:

bbc look east  to-night!!

I never bother with Look East, always behind the latest forecast. 

Is anyone else on here surprised that proper weather enthusiasts would even look at an app forecast or one of those 5 symbols for 5 days thingy? It's like the people who ask whether there will be snow in a particular town in 5 days on the Model threads. Baffling. 

[Darkcloud]

I have to admit I'm getting a little edgy about this upcoming easterly...sods law my boss is away for a fortnight from Wednesday which means I have sole charge of 4 horses a 5 mile drive away through hilly narrow lanes (and no 4x4!) Can't even bunk down at work as have own animals to look after too. Would love to be able to enjoy any snow we get but instead fear I will be walking 10 miles twice a day. Bloody typical!!

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, Wivenswold said:

I never bother with Look East, always behind the latest forecast. 

Is anyone else on here surprised that proper weather enthusiasts would even look at an app forecast or one of those 5 symbols for 5 days thingy? It's like the people who ask whether there will be snow in a particular town in 5 days on the Model threads. Baffling. 

Yup, I don't understand it either - TV forecasts are better to an extent because of human input, the apps are utterly pointless unless it's either sunny or a frontal system bringing PPN. Sunshine and showers, or as per next week snow showers, the apps are more useless than asking Sid the Squirrel.

[E17boy]

good evening guys and girls hope you all are ok, I must say I am still here sitting at the edge of my seat but still not fallen off yet ?. Another day gone and we are another day closer. It's so hard not to get excited especially with the thought of what could be a special present for us. Still I am trying to control my excitement and know fully well there is still a bit more left to climb so caution is still not to be thrown away. 

At this moment of time it is really hard to probably predict how much snow there is going to be, but from my experience in these setups showers can appear at short notice. 

My guess would be we will initially see snow grains and then proper snow showers. I am no expert on this I might be wrong but that is just my thoughts.

whatever happens very interesting period coming up but with the covaits. I can't wait to see heavy snow falling after it's gone dark I just love the lamppost view. 

Fingers still crossed few more stops and we will be at our destination hope this train is not delayed. 

Wishing you all a relaxing evening 

all the best regards ????

[Paul Sherman]

So ECM brings in -15c into Kent and Essex on the 12z and GFS says

Not having that

I raise you a -17c into Kent

Crikey!

[Redmc13]

They are all at it ????

 

[kold weather]

Well 18z is basically a Jan 1987 reduex, 850hpa temps are more or less at the same level as that cold burst on this run, maybe even slightly MORE sustained. Lapse rates would be slightly less due to the cooler SSTs, but the convection should have more staying power inland. Regardless your looking at massive falls in the east pretty much across the board on this.

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

So ECM brings in -15c into Kent and Essex on the 12z and GFS says

Not having that

I raise you a -17c into Kent

Crikey!

Surely record breaking for the time of year? Hell, we haven't had -17c in mid winter since what, the 80's? Perhaps before that even? This is ridiculous.

As someone who has just started a driving job literally today, I either want no snow or enough snow that I can call into work without it being a problem, I feel like the latter is going to happen.

[mishy]

This surely can't go pear shaped now? Can it?!?

 

[Dbarb]

Just thought about all the homeless people we see now in our towns and how they will survive. I remember walking through Chelmsford on a chilly night and they where all so cold and shivering. What will they do?

[Paul Sherman]

Daniel 

I was born in 1972

The 1987 Snow was incredible because I was at school and it simply shut for 1 week due to the depth of the snowdrifts.

1991 I had literally just passed my Driving test and started working in London. I drove to Upminster Station went to work that morning, think it was a thursday or a friday, they sent us home at 1pm and by the time I got to Upminster the train could not get any further east due to drifting further east. I then went to my Car an old Mark 3 Escort and that was the first time I had driven in the snow, I kid you not I like most people just abandoned the car and walked home.

Good luck mate but dont take any silly risks, have already told my 18 year old she wont be driving to college next week if it comes as expected, not worth the risk

[Paul Sherman]

3 minutes ago, mishy said:

This surely can't go pear shaped now? Can it?!?

 

Oh it can, have seen them go wrong at T72