SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

[snowblind]

2 minutes ago, slater said:

Great Norfolk and Suffolk between the two Ambers warnings just like Dec 2010 and Feb 2013 

I was in the amber zone in Feb 2013 and got nothing but did get 15cm in December 2010.

[snowking]

42 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Yep focus on the disruptive snow could be shifting North from this mornings updates

Yes it will certainly be interesting to see how this plays out. If we go by what is currently modelled then outside of the two amber zones you would think that chances would be very hit and miss. However that is assuming what is currently modelled is what plays out - as Darren alludes to, we quite often see some surprises crop up which are not modelled in these scenarios

The big problem for anywhere west of the amber zone right now is that the flow is so variable. When we do see a more perfect flow to push stuff further inland on Tuesday, we then see that little disturbance run just in to the North-West of the region which one would suspect will lower the showery activity further south across us - just unfortunate timing really.

But let's see what happens - it's not that outside of the amber zones I'm not expecting a cm or 2, but for the serious snowfall amounts this currently looks a little less widespread (pre-friday at least) for our region than say 2009.

Anyway, let's see what plays out!

[Met4Cast]

Forget about the end of the week/breakdown. We've got 5/6 days of cold and snow, can we not just enjoy that?

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

Good luck to those in the east of the region. After reviewing the latest output, I’m expecting very little here in Berkshire.

Things could change, but a few flakes in the wind just won’t cut it  

I think a shift to a more NE flow is killing the chances further west!

Probably not going to be too easy on the northern side of the esturary however funny things can happen with shortwave features and sometimes little surprises can crop up in the flow.

PS, E.Sweden has got heavy streaming snow showers...with a pressure of 1042mbs!!

https://weather.us/radar-hd/norway#play

Amazingly upper air temps are no colder than what we will have soon. Also here is the 06z GFS forecast for the time...look familiar?

 

[slater]

@danholly @ weatherquest has just tweeted this for EA! 

[eddy88888]

Hi guys just had this warning from the met office whats my chances in sunny old bournemouth, do you think we might get some snow here just need and experts opinion thankyou in advance

[CK1981]

2 minutes ago, pureasthedriven said:

Yep, that’s actually a change from their early hours update that I read in real-time. So following GFS and ECM trend more prominently and starting to gradually drop what I assume was the more MOGREPS driven idea. Well done GFS? We’ll see. All references to south and east beyond this Friday being at highest risk now shifted north in the medium to long term. So, volatile as models are, I would be looking to see this week as THE week for my location and then turn attention towards Spring warmth, although blocked and anti-cyclonic going forward screams bland and cool. Let’s hope we go out with a bang this week. 

I’m with you there!

My location is pretty crap for next week’s early snow event, and then if we get snow to rain and slush on Friday, I’ll be pretty gutted!

[Froze were the Days]

1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

Forget about the end of the week/breakdown. We've got 5/6 days of cold and snow, can we not just enjoy that?

Steve Murr said earlier the EC ens were looking somewhat better for a slider this morning regarding Friday...

[Mikel Nimbus]

1 minute ago, E17boy said:

Steve any thoughts of how things stand for Walthamstow this is outside of the amber zone at the moment. Regards 

 

I think our best chance along with the home counties is on Wednesday when winds shift more to the east. A bit too early for the Met Office to issue ambers in that time frame yet. The track of Thursday's approaching low pressure is still uncertain and could have a big effect on if and how long we might be under a streamer for on Weds.

[Big Snow]

2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Forget about the end of the week/breakdown. We've got 5/6 days of cold and snow, can we not just enjoy that?

SOME of us do mate, some of us.

[Speedbird]

13 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

Monday = snow 

tues = snow 

weds = snow 

metoffice warnings 

it' going to snow guys 

ENJOY 

id also think the whole of our region will be Amber by weds 

i wouldn't be surprised to see some reds in due course . . .

[Chris101]

Poor bloke at the meto can't go fast enough for the gun jumpers

[Number 23]

Great news guys good luck!

As I alluded to earlier in the week, my location perfectly sums up the local variability in snow distribution in these conditions. Literally just outside the amber zone! 

20 miles South of me probably getting hammered. 

It will be a frustrating time for some on here but I'm just happy for those who missed out in December. 

[tomp456]

So my phone is now saying Snow on a Tuesday and Thursday, don’t think it will amount to much considering I am bang on the coast.

then it’s forecasting freezing rain on Friday.

 

but what exactly is freezing rain (frozen rain obviously ;)) but is this not what hail is?

[SLEETY]

4 minutes ago, Speedbird said:

with such a long fetch, that could dump a serious amount of snow in this and surrounding areas and I imagine that's why the alert has gone out quite a way in advance . . . .

That’s heading straight to us on the se coast ,the details will change end of week major blizzard for our region seem most likely

[jayney69]

Bang in the middle of the Amber zone ???

[SLEETY]

Just now, tomp456 said:

So my phone is now saying Snow on a Tuesday and Thursday, don’t think it will amount to much considering I am bang on the coast.

then it’s forecasting freezing rain on Friday.

 

but what exactly is freezing rain (frozen rain obviously ;)) but is this not what hail is?

I’m near you but we can get hammered by the streamers ,it’s happened many times before in these setups 

[TEITS]

Looking great at the moment for those in the Peterborough area.

Snow showers from tonight into tomorrow. Chance of the heavier snow hitting our area during Monday night/Tues. More snow showers on Wed. Heavy snow end of the week with a greater chance of this being snow than freezing rain. 

Basically at the moment the ideal location!

[Delka]

1 minute ago, tomp456 said:

So my phone is now saying Snow on a Tuesday and Thursday, don’t think it will amount to much considering I am bang on the coast.

then it’s forecasting freezing rain on Friday.

 

but what exactly is freezing rain (frozen rain obviously ;)) but is this not what hail is?

freezing rain is rain, but the ground temperature is still freezing so it hits the surface and turns into ice, making everything turn into a giant ice rink. very disruptive and dangerous, they get some almighty ones in America!

[pureasthedriven]

Shouldn’t really say this and I know it hasn’t really started yet but pottering in my garden near Gatwick out of the wind it really feels like, er... Spring! ?

[Uxbridge90]

18 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

Monday = snow 

tues = snow 

weds = snow 

metoffice warnings 

it' going to snow guys 

ENJOY 

id also think the whole of our region will be Amber by weds 

Not so good for us though in NW London sadly.

[CK1981]

7 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Probably not going to be too easy on the northern side of the esturary however funny things can happen with shortwave features and sometimes little surprises can crop up in the flow.

PS, E.Sweden has got heavy streaming snow showers...with a pressure of 1042mbs!!

https://weather.us/radar-hd/norway#play

Amazingly upper air temps are no colder than what we will have soon. Also here is the 06z GFS forecast for the time...look familiar?

 

I think there will be some surprises, but I still can’t see much more than a dusting here, which is pretty lame if the rest of the region gets buried.

Time for me to do my snow dance again ?

[Daenerys]

So to cut a long story short, driving the M25 from junction 8 to Plumstead wouldn’t be the best of ideas, come Tuesday? 

[Snowman31]

Just now, Uxbridge90 said:

Not so good for us though in NW London sadly.

Never is with showers 

[Delka]

Just now, pureasthedriven said:

Shouldn’t really say this and I know it hasn’t really started yet but pottering in my garden near Gatwick out of the wind it really feels like, er... Spring! ?

sitting by the window in the sun and it's warming me up enough to not need the heating on!