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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

Captain Shortwave

By Captain Shortwave
in Regional

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classylady Enthusiast

classylady

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: hot and sunny, freezing cold and snowy!!
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted

Cannot believe the "real" cold is finally arriving!! Its been a long week (or two).... Just love it when all of us on here are "buzzing". I enjoy keeping up with all the banter and reports of temps, dew points, pink blobs on the radar etc and as from tonight snow depths that will be coming in!! Thank you to you all!!

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

I still believe it will correct south and stand by my original track prediction. If the low passes just south of the Channel Islands and then heads ENE through the Cherbourg Peninsular, we’ll all be happy!

Who knows, what I do think is the GFS has gone way OTT this afternoon with the power of the low, gets down to 964mbs, unlikely!

A weaker low advects less milder air and also arrives later, which if this does become marginal, the later it arrives into the night the better. Snow to rain sadly most likely solution now though...

Edited by kold weather
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chelsea01 Apprentice

chelsea01

Posted
  • Location: Strood Kent asl 63m
  • Weather Preferences: cold and hot in summer
  • Location: Strood Kent asl 63m
Posted
23 minutes ago, LJS22 said:

Stay safe mate. Don't think tomorrow will be too bad. Dreading Tuesday. I'm all around the highest parts of Kent. Bluebell Hill,  Wrotham,  Meopham,  New Ash Green. Great fun ?

you too mate. watch out the nutters on roads

 

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted
Just now, Steve Murr said:

Great UKMO 12z - a major step for prolonged cold as @144 the low has split & moving east ( -10c back over us @168 )

Yep, unfortunately though the air becomes too marginal at 120hrs,so we will probably have a snow-rain then maybe back to snow on the back edge type situation down here. 

Still, the LP is better placed and weaker which is good than the GFS

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CK1981 Rising Star

CK1981

Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Who knows, what I do think is the GFS has gone way OTT this afternoon with the power of the low, gets down to 964mbs, unlikely!

A weaker low advects less milder air and also arrives later, which if this does become marginal, the later it arrives into the night the better. Snow to rain sadly most likely solution now though...

I agree with you. There’s no way it will deepen like that. The GFS always incorrectly blows up these dartboard lows.

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Vesuvius Contributor

Vesuvius

Posted
  • Location: Rayleigh, Essex. 68m asl
  • Location: Rayleigh, Essex. 68m asl
Posted
9 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Yeah, probably the Thames will be the natural divide between higher and lower totals, to the north of the Thames and your probably going to be needing unexpected troughs to get much in the way, to the south and its going to depend on the exact variation.

Also worth saying those that aren't too far from the coast along the east coast will probably do very nicely as well.

That's out of line with the Met warning, Kold. That has southern Essex in the firing line so I don't get your Thames and unexpected troughs comment.  Unless I'm missing something?

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Speedbird Community Regular

Speedbird

Posted
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and ice
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
Posted
Just now, Vesuvius said:

That's out of line with the Met warning, Kold. That has southern Essex in the firing line so I don't get your Thames and unexpected troughs comment.  Unless I'm missing something?

absolutely V . . . we do appear to be in the sweet spot

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Bazza118 Enthusiast

Bazza118

Posted
  • Location: Coulsdon, Surrey 147M (asl)
  • Location: Coulsdon, Surrey 147M (asl)
Posted

There' much talk about Friday and uppers being to warm, but I think given the cold pooling below and snow cover , coupled with the likelihood from meto of low stalling in channel that it will be snow all the way. 

Mind you it is 5 days away yet, and we'e plenty to enjoy before then. 

 . 

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Speedbird Community Regular

Speedbird

Posted
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and ice
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
Posted
1 minute ago, CK1981 said:

A local weather station is now reporting a dew point of -10 ??

i don't think that's wired up correctly . . . 

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beng Enthusiast

beng

Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
Posted
1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Yep, unfortunately though the air becomes too marginal at 120hrs,so we will probably have a snow-rain then maybe back to snow on the back edge type situation down here. 

Still, the LP is better placed and weaker which is good than the GFS

Worth bearing in mind that in N France and the low countries receive more snowfall than the global models expect now, then the actual 850 temps may be lowered slightly - assuming the synoptic pattern verified. At t120 on the ukmo the surface wind has an extremely short sea track too, so chance of surface cold undercut off the continent. Extremely complicated setup IMHO, glad I don't have to give a forecast!

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Seasonal Trim Rising Star

Seasonal Trim

Posted
  • Location: Linford, Essex
  • Location: Linford, Essex
Posted

Although I'm almost smack bang in the middle of the amber warning for Tuesday, I can't help but have this nagging doubt that things are going to go the way of the pear! Logic tells me that the chances are I'm going to get a pasting. But I've heard enough horror stories of people being in Amber and even Red warnings and getting F' all!

 

God please let this be an epic spell! :cold:

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Speedbird Community Regular

Speedbird

Posted
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and ice
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
Posted
Just now, Snowflake Queen said:

Are we lamp post watching tonight ? :cold:

I will be ;-)

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Roy Apprentice

Roy

Posted
  • Location: Dartford, Kent
  • Location: Dartford, Kent
Posted

I'm thinking of getting myself a life next winter. Just think of all those people out there without a care in the world and enjoying life as it happens. 

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CK1981 Rising Star

CK1981

Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
Posted
Just now, Speedbird said:

i don't think that's wired up correctly . . . 

Well LHR has a dew point of -9c, so it could be correct.....

 

83D8849C-F553-43D9-8DFE-DC0C7ABE1A66.png

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Flaked Queen Veteran

Flaked Queen

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Speedbird said:

I will be ;-)

Brill what time ? 

1 minute ago, Roy said:

I'm thinking of getting myself a life next winter. Just think of all those people out there without a care in the world and enjoying life as it happens. 

Would know what one of them is ( a life ) I have 4 children ?

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Speedbird Community Regular

Speedbird

Posted
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and ice
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
Posted
1 minute ago, CK1981 said:

Well LHR has a dew point of -9c, so it could be correct.....

 

83D8849C-F553-43D9-8DFE-DC0C7ABE1A66.png

wowsers

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stainesbloke Maestro

stainesbloke

Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
Posted
Just now, Steve Murr said:

Last hour sat rep !!!!

5C17C9A1-1F5D-480E-B08A-525A1E79434B.thumb.png.1f6c030a12505c1f357a085ad1f89fbf.pngCB5A3ABD-D960-4F1D-B30D-A5D89202E893.thumb.png.f7beb110cb42dad9f44de674c52bae80.png

 

Higher tops !!

Isn’t that the sinking sun causing deeper shadows?

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snowrye Seasoned

snowrye

Posted
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow,thunder,tornados
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl
Posted
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Last hour sat rep !!!!

5C17C9A1-1F5D-480E-B08A-525A1E79434B.thumb.png.1f6c030a12505c1f357a085ad1f89fbf.pngCB5A3ABD-D960-4F1D-B30D-A5D89202E893.thumb.png.f7beb110cb42dad9f44de674c52bae80.png

 

Higher tops !!

Come my friends

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Big Snow Explorer

Big Snow

Posted
  • Location: Cricklewood, north London
  • Location: Cricklewood, north London
Posted
2 minutes ago, Roy said:

I'm thinking of getting myself a life next winter. Just think of all those people out there without a care in the world and enjoying life as it happens. 

Ditto. If my friends knew I did this...

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