SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

[snow raven]

3 minutes ago, Nick F said:

The Met Office Amber warnings tie in quite well with the greatest accumulations on the 00z EC snowfall accumulations by Weds.

SE25 where I live right on the edge of the Amber, so be interesting to see if the streamer of heaviest snow showers moves a little further N, potential the amber maybe expanded nearer the time. Though I will be working at Heathrow in the afternoon and evening - where it will probably be less snowy.

SE Essex, N and W Kent, parts of SE London and down into north E Sussex looking the sweet spots

Is the amber warning more for a mid Kent streamer or a Thames streamer set up?  

[lottiekent]

I've decided I'm in the amber warning zone. Positive thinking works on the weather right? 

[Retron]

21 minutes ago, Delka said:

freezing rain is rain, but the ground temperature is still freezing so it hits the surface and turns into ice, making everything turn into a giant ice rink. very disruptive and dangerous, they get some almighty ones in America!

Nope. Freezing rain is in fact supercooled rain (i.e. still liquid below zero, not having had time to refreeze into an ice pellet). It turns to ice on hitting anything, whether that surface is below zero or not.

 

[CK1981]

7 minutes ago, Ben Blizzard said:

Another Friday post - soz I'm probably looking at the wrong one, but the 6-30 day long range text forecast from the MET Office that I can see on their website, doesn't mention milder/less cold air getting into our region at all? (1st - 10th March) just talk of 'heavy' and 'disruptive' snow on Friday, and thereafter 'likely to remain very cold through early March, with further snow showers in the east and southeast' ??

That was yesterday’s, it has changed today.

[Storme]

Why am I moving to the East Midlands in 9 weeks? I am sceptical we will get much here near Gatwick.

[Long haul to mild]

14 minutes ago, Delka said:

not a common event in the UK at all, if you google image search USA ice storms there's some good pictures of the damage it does over there, but when it occurs here it's a much more toned down version to any of those pictures

Can remember it happening once while driving. All the cars had to stop where they were. When I tried to get out of the car, I slipped and had to hold on to it to stop myself falling over! It was like an ice rink; very dangerous.

[Southender]

7 minutes ago, Nick F said:

The Met Office Amber warnings tie in quite well with the greatest accumulations on the 00z EC snowfall accumulations by Weds.

SE25 where I live right on the edge of the Amber, so be interesting to see if the streamer of heaviest snow showers moves a little further N, potential the amber maybe expanded nearer the time. Though I will be working at Heathrow in the afternoon and evening - where it will probably be less snowy.

SE Essex, N and W Kent, parts of SE London and down into north E Sussex looking the sweet spots

Loving that ??❄️?

[JennyJane1]

6 minutes ago, Roy said:

It all kicks off in about 6 hours. Countdown time. Tbh, in reality, I think most people will be sick of snow and freezing cold by the end of the week, and welcome some less cold conditions. Apologies to those who are perhaps not in the so called sweet spots

After I have my bath this evening, it'll be about 8pm, so in about 6 hours time, so i'll grab a hot chocolate and go and lamppost watch till bedtime.Although if it does stat snowing, bedtime will be delayed.

[crazysnowcatz4]

What ever happens over the next few days, firstly people should keep safe and look in on their elderly neighbours . Also check the anti freeze in your car and check that you have appropriate washer solution or it will just freeze on your windscreen. Anything that drops out the sky from mid Monday until late Friday will be snow. How often have we been able to say that. Local events ie streamers, etc are almost impossible to forecast, so I would just watch the window and radar, have fun if you enjoy snow, turn up the heating if you don't.

[Ben Blizzard]

Just now, CK1981 said:

That was yesterday’s, it has changed today.

Ok thanks - any idea why the old one is still showing on the website & how do I see the new one?  

[CK1981]

2 minutes ago, Ben Blizzard said:

Ok thanks - any idea why the old one is still showing on the website & how do I see the new one?  

Here it is...

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/mobile/forecast/gcpkqpwmr#?date=2018-03-03

[kold weather]

10 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

I really think those outside the zones not worry, it looks like its bands of showers North to South that sweep across the area into organised lines, obviously they lose some power the further west you go, I still think everyone will do well out of this, then the plus side of the potential blizzard hitting your areas harder than areas further to the east of our area. The weather has an amazing way of balancing things out

Agreed, I suspect the models are badly underestimating any streameron Monday mindyou.

Here is my gut instinct on any streamer:

1: Sets up around 6am Mon and steaidly strengthens but CLOSE to the estruary mouth, motion WSW.

2: Waxes and wanes during Monday, probably won't be ever present, though my guess is within 10-20 miles of the mouth will probably have a fairly constant snow rate.

3: Tuesday AM (3-6am) shifts the streamer towards N.Kent coasts and out through Brighton roughly. Strong model hints that we see a strengthening helped by the shortwave coming through to our north which klicks some extra instability into the system.

4: Some point later on Tuesday (roughly afternoon) winds bends back ENE at steering level and probably streamer gets a rough Feb 09 orientration. Probably will peak shower intensity due to cold pool aloft. This remains till Wed morning.

5: Brief switch to ESE winds late Wednesday. Some uncertainties about this though as there maybe some more stable air starting to come into play from France aheadof the low pressure. Probably decent chance of snow, and probably best shot for those say in NW London.

6: Things settle down somewhat for Thursday.

Edited February 25, 2018 by kold weather

[Lazarus42]

2 minutes ago, Retron said:

Nope. Freezing rain is in fact supercooled rain (i.e. still liquid below zero, not having had time to refreeze into an ice pellet). It turns to ice on hitting anything, whether that surface is below zero or not.

 

Spot on, you beat me to it! Supercooled water droplets just itching to turn to ice if anything disrupts their equilibrium. Hits anything, cold or not, and immediately turns into ice glazing anything and everything. Brings down trees, power cables, encases cars... Dramatic, dangerous and beautiful!

[claret047]

2 hours ago, Essex Chelle said:

Crown hill is awful road also bread and cheese in Benfleet church hill thundersley surrising how many big hills with main roads there are around here. 

Hello Chelle.

Yes you are right . before I retired I used to visit one of my employer's area offices in Rayleigh and I really hated going up Crown Hill. It was especially bad early morning with the sun low especially if the road was wet from earlier rain. The sun reflected off the road surface and i could hardly see to drive.

I wish I had a sledge, but I might look a bot silly at my age.Hopefully the snow on any Thames Streamer will reach as far as Chelmo.

Kind Regards

Dave

[Nick F]

7 minutes ago, snow raven said:

Is the amber warning more for a mid Kent streamer or a Thames streamer set up?  

I'd be inclined to say that it is Thames streamer set-up, convergence over the sea between Essex and Kent as the coastline narrows into the Thames Estuary, the streamer of heavier showers favouring SE Essex, N and W Kent due to the ENE/NE wind direction, though subtle changes in the wind direction may favour more of S London or more of Kent/E Sussex

[Easily sled]

The last proper Thames streamer, back in 2010, my area ( near Heathrow) did exceptionally well, any reasons why that is not expected this time around.

[Southender]

That long range met outlook is unbelievable isn’t it. What a huge change for the worse. Oh well, bring on Mon-Fri. Then perhaps Spring slowly ushering in. If we all get a good dump, then that will make it easier to take. Huge turnaround from Exeter on the extended though ?

Edited February 25, 2018 by Southender

[Weathizard]

1 minute ago, Southender said:

That long range met outlook is unbelievable isn’t it. What a huge change for the worse. Oh well, bring on Mon-Fri. Then perhaps Spring slowly ushering in.

We get the wash out whilst the north profits, same old! 

[turkishfella]

This is the maximum snow coverage for Brighton according to weather.us, it looks like I will spend all my Thursday evening outside making the most of snow  before it starts melting on Friday.

 

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, Southender said:

That long range met outlook is unbelievable isn’t it. What a huge change for the worse. Oh well, bring on Mon-Fri. Then perhaps Spring slowly ushering in.

Met office extended updates flip and flop like a flag in the wind!

[mulzy]

Just now, Southender said:

That long range met outlook is unbelievable isn’t it. What a huge change for the worse. Oh well, bring on Mon-Fri. Then perhaps Spring slowly ushering in.

To be honest, it did start showing up in the NWP modelling yesterday and that trend has continued today.

Let's enjoy the next few days - sadly I think snowfall will be localised and many in this region will be disappointed come the end of the week.  The big hope was always Friday but even that is receding now.

[CK1981]

1 minute ago, Southender said:

That long range met outlook is unbelievable isn’t it. What a huge change for the worse. Oh well, bring on Mon-Fri. Then perhaps Spring slowly ushering in.

Yes, very disappointing. Kent will do well next week, but for most other areas it may turn out to be a damp squib!

I was feeling very positive yesterday, but that is fading now, especially for us in the west of the region.

[snow raven]

1 minute ago, Nick F said:

I'd be inclined to say that it is Thames streamer set-up, convergence over the sea between Essex and Kent as the coastline narrows into the Thames Estuary, the streamer of heavier showers favouring SE Essex, N and W Kent due to the ENE/NE wind direction, though subtle changes in the wind direction may favour more of S London or more of Kent/E Sussex

Thanks Nick.  I went on the METO weather warning map for Tuesday and using my phones location (ie home in Bexleyheath) I am just about in the amber zone.  I was just surprised it didn't cover more of SE London. 

[Nick F]

2 minutes ago, Southender said:

That long range met outlook is unbelievable isn’t it. What a huge change for the worse. Oh well, bring on Mon-Fri. Then perhaps Spring slowly ushering in.

Kind of inevitable that the Met Office forecasts would update for the worse for our area, given the operational output turning it less cold from the S and SW after Friday, seems the Met Office forecasts are slow to catch up! But, pretty much most of a working week of very cold and snowy weather to look forward too. 

[Nick F]

1 minute ago, snow raven said:

Thanks Nick.  I went on the METO weather warning map for Tuesday and using my phones location (ie home in Bexleyheath) I am just about in the amber zone.  I was just surprised it didn't cover more of SE London. 

Well early days, they may expand the amber zone tomorrow or even Tuesday when it looks more apparent where heaviest and frequent snow showers will align.