SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

[kold weather]

Looks like the 06z EURO4 output was enough to justify an upgrade to amber (the warning zone and the higher precip line up near perfectly.) As others have said don't take the locations it shows too literaly BUT that would be the main zone for sure. I also think this would be the rough area any red alert may needto be issued down the line.

Come Tuesday I expect most of the yellow zone to be amber, and amber zone to be red.

[Shunter]

Shower activity forming now North of Groningen  ( Nederlands ).  

http://weathernews.co.uk/radar/

Edited February 25, 2018 by Shunter

[Speedbird]

4 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Fantastic!!

kerrrrching

[Great Plum]

1 minute ago, pureasthedriven said:

I knew it was a mistake to leave Beckenham...

I’ve never heard that said before ?

[Long haul to mild]

4 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Fantastic!!

Classic streamer territory. Wouldn't be surprised to see other streamers set up too, given all the instability and deep cold pool.

[Mark wheeler]

5 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

BOOM! I’m not in it but was expecting it. First amber snow warning since 2013 issued for parts of Greater London and SE don’t take too literally the areas,

Bizarrely, I’m glad I’m not the Amber Zone , not that I don’t want loads of snow ( I do ) but on a personal note as a store manager of a supermarket it’s going to be a nightmare. So for me a gradual increase in snow without infrastructure issues etc will be perfect, although I’m fully aware these things don’t happen that way ?.

edit - in 2010 we got pummelled here by the Thames streamer so I still think the area may be extended.

Edited February 25, 2018 by Mark wheeler

[pureasthedriven]

10 hours ago, SLEETY said:

should be some excellent sliding conditions on the Downs behind my house as the snow will be so dry next week,can't wait,anyone else in the Worthing area want to meet up for a big slide next week

 

Desperate times, GP! ?

[Lampostwatcher]

Monday = snow 

tues = snow 

weds = snow 

metoffice warnings 

it' going to snow guys 

ENJOY 

id also think the whole of our region will be Amber by weds 

[CK1981]

Good luck to those in the east of the region. After reviewing the latest output, I’m expecting very little here in Berkshire.

Things could change, but a few flakes in the wind just won’t cut it  

I think a shift to a more NE flow is killing the chances further west!

[SLEETY]

Thought the amber warnings would go up once the high res models come into play,Think most the region will get buried by either lake effect snow on the coast and streamers for others

We are nearly at the start line ,people

[SMU]

Centre point of the orange zone as expected ?

20-30cm please.

 

[Darren Dilliway]

Hello all!Noob here!Anything due for Colchester?I've got two excited little boys that have never had the chance to make a snowman!

[Southender]

Southend snow machine active ❄️

[Tom Jarvis]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Centre point of the orange zone as expected ?

20-30cm please.

 

I’m just inside it Steve so hopeing for a good dumping. Unfortunately my place of work is outside it so they might wonddr why I’m stuck lol

[Coopsy]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Centre point of the orange zone as expected ?

20-30cm please.

 

There’s no reason why not. I’m hopeful up here near bluebell hill 

[snowblind]

I'm in between the two amber warnings. Nutz!

[slater]

Great Norfolk and Suffolk between the two Ambers warnings just like Dec 2010 and Feb 2013 

[E17boy]

Steve any thoughts of how things stand for Walthamstow this is outside of the amber zone at the moment. Regards 

[pureasthedriven]

13 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

Met Office outlook for our patch is not great. After the potential snow event on Friday, they go on to mention near normal temperatures in the south. The midlands seem best placed for continued snow events.....what a surprise!!

Yep, that’s actually a change from their early hours update that I read in real-time. So following GFS and ECM trend more prominently and starting to gradually drop what I assume was the more MOGREPS driven idea. Well done GFS? We’ll see. All references to south and east beyond this Friday being at highest risk now shifted north in the medium to long term. So, volatile as models are, I would be looking to see this week as THE week for my location and then turn attention towards Spring warmth, although blocked and anti-cyclonic going forward screams bland and cool. Let’s hope we go out with a bang this week. 

[Lampostwatcher]

if your not in the Amber zone only 

expect 20 cms don' be greedy 

[echodelta21]

I'm not betting on my chances of even getting to East Ham Tuesday evening....the trains will probably be screwed, ditto the roads and public transport, and i'm a 5 series owner ? It's not looking good......

[Daenerys]

9 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Bizarrely, I’m glad I’m not the Amber Zone , not that I don’t want loads of snow ( I do ) but on a personal note as a store manager of a supermarket it’s going to be a nightmare. So for me a gradual increase in snow without infrastructure issues etc will be perfect, although I’m fully aware these things don’t happen that way ?.

edit - in 2010 we got pummelled here by the Thames streamer so I still think the area may be extended.

I agree, I’m just outside of it too, but given what happened to us back then, I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s extended nearer the time. 

[southbank]

Sadly the Meto updates are a significant downgrade for us in the some.  Gone is the bullish text for cold / snow to continue for next weekend with North /South developing in country with temp returning to near normal

 

lets hope this now cold snap goes with a bang rather than a whimper 

[london-snow]

Thames streamer looks to be the reasoning behind the amber warning. I’d expect to see areas just west of that amber to be upgraded as we get down to that event. Remember 5+ years ago it dumped nigh on a foot of snow here in Morden.

[Speedbird]

11 minutes ago, Essexgooner said:

Lovely 

with such a long fetch, that could dump a serious amount of snow in this and surrounding areas and I imagine that's why the alert has gone out quite a way in advance . . . .