SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

[Speedbird]

19 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

Is that 1mm every 3 hours?

the light blue is 1-2mm every 3 hours, the slightly darker blue is 2-5mm every three hours - working on a basis 13 to 1 it could easily equate to between 2.5 - 6.5 cm snow per 3 hour period - it could be more if, as predicted, the charts are undercooking the precipitation rates

dry snow can have a ration of up to 50/1 so i will let you do the maths ;-)

Edited February 25, 2018 by Speedbird

[Kent Blizzard]

If anyone needs me I'll be in the garage, polishing up my sledge ...I purchased it in the sales after 2010, I've obviously hardly used it!

I was getting Fed up of the old bath tub getting suck halfway down the hills, plus I was looking a bit silly in it.

Edited February 25, 2018 by Kent Blizzard

[kold weather]

Gosh I can't get over just how close the 06z is to a total snow event, the SE *JUST* misses out and instead gets snow-freezing rain and then back to snow away from the coasts.

Honestly this may just about be one of the tightest set-ups I've ever seen for this neck of the woods, literally 10-20 miles difference would make a big difference!

Anyone claiming with any confidence about what happens on Friday is being brutally dishonest with you, its way to uncertain for confidence and probably will be upto 24hrs out.

[FetchCB]

The important point re Friday is that on focusing on what happens afterwards ie it turns to rain (If it does) we lose sight of the disruption and chaos it will bring. 

Blizzards anyone actually been in one? 

They represent a real  danger to life and it doesn't matter if your rural or in a major town, things will go down hill very quickly, people will get isolated very quickly as emergency services struggle to cope with demand and conditions 

[snowblind]

11 minutes ago, danm said:

Interesting graphic just posted by John Hammond on Twitter. 

 

I've always liked John Hammond.

[turkishfella]

4 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

You were making some quite outlandish statements regarding the return to much milder weather and rain this weekend, which made it look like you were trolling. At the end of the day none of us know the precise track of Friday’s low (not even the professionals in Exeter), but from past experience, it should correct south over time putting us all in the game for more prolonged cold.

hope you are right @CK1981

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, FetchCB said:

The important point re Friday is that on focusing on what happens afterwards ie it turns to rain (If it does) we lose sight of the disruption and chaos it will bring. 

Blizzards anyone actually been in one? 

They represent a real  danger to life and it doesn't matter if your rural or in a major town, things will go down hill very quickly, people will get isolated very quickly as emergency services struggle to cope with demand and conditions 

I'm far more worried about the freezing rain potential, have a look at what happened in Jan 1940 and now imagine it happening in 21st century Britain...blizzard would be bad, but at least people do have some minimal experience with snow...barely anyone has experience with freezing rain.

06z still ends up giving this region a solid 5-10cms (more the further west and north you are) despite the freezing/ rain.

Plus, remember what I said, even 20 miles makes a difference!!

Edited February 25, 2018 by kold weather

[CK1981]

5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Gosh I can't get over just how close the 06z is to a total snow event, the SE *JUST* misses out and instead gets snow-freezing rain and then back to snow away from the coasts.

Honestly this may just about be one of the tightest set-ups I've ever seen for this neck of the woods, literally 10-20 miles difference would make a big difference!

Anyone claiming with any confidence about what happens on Friday is being brutally dishonest with you, its way to uncertain for confidence and probably will be upto 24hrs out.

Already correcting south, so should be a total snow event at the time ?

[pureasthedriven]

2 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

It’s gonna be an interesting country file forecast later!

I would absolutely have nothing to do with that, for our region, personally. Suspect it will be vague, played down and equivocal. Will most likely focus on the cold. 

Unless you’re up north, where it always snows! 

[snowray]

What a glorious morning here, lovely sunshine, birds are singing, bits of cloud though starting to build up from the east already.

[turkishfella]

50 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

Ties in nicely with my thoughts last night, with the low passing south of the Channel Islands and then ENE through the Cherbourg Peninsular.

hopefully, if this is true then we will get good snow as well

[Number 23]

Had a little chuckle to myself in the shop just now. 

"They say it's turning colder next week"

"Well they say that just to cover themselves"

What? It's brass monkeys here already! This with the minus 12 850's on our doorstep! 

Also not convinced the potential breakdown for the South is correctly modelled yet either. In fact if it were showing a perfect scenario right now I'd probably be more suspicious, as 100 to 200 miles isn't much at this range regardless of how well supported the output may be. 

No science behind that mind, just gut feeling.

Lots to enjoy until then though.

Edited February 25, 2018 by Number 23

[bluebell]

20 minutes ago, Essex Chelle said:

Oh it had to be done ? with next day delivery ?

Pity you’re miles from where I live would’ve been good to test out the differently designed sledges!!, I’ve got an old Blue Peter designed one somewhere in the shed, it’s was made on a psychiatric inpatient ward and I rescued it from the rubbish tip when the unit was closed down and moved to a newer building!

[pureasthedriven]

35 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

This is encouraging....

http://en.allmetsat.com/metar-taf/europe.php?icao=EGLL

Snow showers beginning at midnight, but this is at Heathrow, so earlier further east.

And Gatwick from midnight. Light snow showers 30% from midnight and then greater confidence from the morning onwards. 

[Sidsnake]

15 minutes ago, FetchCB said:

The important point re Friday is that on focusing on what happens afterwards ie it turns to rain (If it does) we lose sight of the disruption and chaos it will bring. 

Blizzards anyone actually been in one? 

They represent a real  danger to life and it doesn't matter if your rural or in a major town, things will go down hill very quickly, people will get isolated very quickly as emergency services struggle to cope with demand and conditions 

Wise words 

[Speedbird]

22 minutes ago, Essex Chelle said:

Oh it had to be done ? with next day delivery ?

just need to find a hill on Canvey ;-)

personally i'd head up Essex Way, bit of a stretch but great fun careering down

[Easily sled]

I don’t understand the obsession with Friday when we have a very good chance of deep snow cover over wide parts of our region over the coming days, let’s enjoy that and worry about Friday later in the week. It’s ruining this thread.

lets enjoy!

[Speedbird]

2 minutes ago, bluebell said:

Pity you’re miles from where I live would’ve been good to test out the differently designed sledges!!, I’ve got an old Blue Peter designed one somewhere in the shed, it’s was made on a psychiatric inpatient ward and I rescued it from the rubbish tip when the unit was closed down and moved to a newer building!

you might want to check the brakes . . . .

[snowspotter]

Just now, Easily sled said:

I don’t understand the obsession with Friday when we have a very good chance of deep snow cover over wide parts of our region over the coming days, let’s enjoy that and worry about Friday later in the week. It’s ruining this thread.

lets enjoy!

some sad people will never venture from their computers even if its snowing outside!!. Preferring to look at a breakdown. My advice get outside and enjoy the weather not view on a screen when the beast arrives!

 

[Kent Blizzard]

I recommend bookmarking this link for radar watching over the coming few days..

Dutch Radar

[k66yla]

20 minutes ago, FetchCB said:

 

Blizzards anyone actually been in one? 

They represent a real  danger to life and it doesn't matter if your rural or in a major town, things will go down hill very quickly, people will get isolated very quickly as emergency services struggle to cope with demand and conditions 

My bosses will still make me and my colleagues go out in it. After all everyone has to have their junk mail and bills 

[starstream]

21 hours ago, Paul Sherman said:

 

Sorry can't get rid of the quote box.

have fun sledging everyone, but there is always a tragedy occurring  when we get snow, cos it's a relative rarity.

so if you've got older kids, who are gonna go out on their own, warn them to check for fences and obstacles which may or may not be hidden by snow.All to often overlooked in the excitement of a speed run  down a hill.

stay safe and have fun!

[Speedbird]

GFS 06z smelling the coffee ?

Already a better evolution and the possibility for a further adjustment south - looking better for Fridays main event

[craigore]

6 minutes ago, Easily sled said:

I don’t understand the obsession with Friday when we have a very good chance of deep snow cover over wide parts of our region over the coming days, let’s enjoy that and worry about Friday later in the week. It’s ruining this thread.

lets enjoy!

Showers !!!! Not everyone...

Frontel snow ... Everyone !!

[stainesbloke]

1 hour ago, snowfish1 said:

The low is not going to be pinpointed until I would say Tuesday. Another ssw event occurring as we speak and to top that off a very cold met office update which indicates a continuation of the cold spell well into March everywhere. Any thoughts people??

I’d say this is a long way from being resolved. The double SSW is very rare and will play havoc with the atmosphere and hence, the models. We could all be in 15C air next week, or in a proper freeze. Plenty of valuable analysis on here from some very intelligent people, I’d say the Met Office is usually a safe bet though I’m sure there’s some interesting discussions going on there about the next couple of weeks.