SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

[mulzy]

1 hour ago, Thinon said:

First time I've ever seen a forecast for snow with temps in double figures. 

 

The wrong type of snow!

[Arrows1986]

To be fair...wouldnt 5 days of really cold temps and lots of snow be enough.  Who seriously wants weeks of subzero temps? Itd be a pain to commute..cost you more in enerby bills, kill lots of vulnerable people. In reality we have a good few days of historic temps and heavy snow..lets just enjoy it.

[CK1981]

Me again, sorry!

Cast your minds back to the first SSW. The models were in chaos dealing with the outcome. Many favoured a mild solution, but they were wrong, and at a short time frame.

Since then, we’ve had a secondary warming. The models will now be in the same position and trying to work out the solution (but with the additional chaos following the first warming)

I firmly believe they will correct to a colder solution, as before.

[kold weather]

What is interesting is why the operational runs today have nearly all been right at the top end of the ensembles, got to think that is going to trend the other way at some point. I wonder why this is happening though, are they spotting something that the ensembles just can't due to their resolution, or are the operational runs just overdoing it...hmmm...

[SMU]

Thanks for the welcome back

So the ECM appears to have been a very mild outlier & this is the 132 Mean on 18z GFS

Some of the runs will be further North / south -

We need about 50 -75 miles of correction !

144 850 Mean ideally the -4c line is the snowline ( but may be -2 for a while )

(132 GFS / 144 ECM )

So all is not lost yet

apart from that 84 hours of potential snow !!!

 

[Whereisthesnow?]

I agree with CK1981... I believe a lot snow to all regions also! If it's just for a couple of days... c'mon that's better then most years... snow day! C'mon... day off work... enjoing the snow...  building a snowman... playing snowball fights... 

[CK1981]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Thanks for the welcome back

So the ECM appears to have been a very mild outlier & this is the 132 Mean on 18z GFS

Some of the runs will be further North / south -

We need about 50 -75 miles of correction !

144 850 Mean ideally the -4c line is the snowline ( but may be -2 for a while )

(132 GFS / 144 ECM )

So all is not lost yet

apart from that 84 hours of potential snow !!!

 

Southerly corrections over the next few days methinks. If not, I’ll have major egg on my face ??

i

[weathergeek]

Just watched BBC Week Ahead and I didn't think there lookedlike loads of snow South of London?! Mostly EA upwards?! I'm still happy to sit back and wait but really not as much as I thought x

[CK1981]

1 minute ago, weathergeek said:

Just watched BBC Week Ahead and I didn't think there lookedlike loads of snow South of London?! Mostly EA upwards?! I'm still happy to sit back and wait but really not as much as I thought x

To be honest, I’d take as much salt needed to grit our roads than their forecasts. 

[snowray]

5 minutes ago, weathergeek said:

Just watched BBC Week Ahead and I didn't think there lookedlike loads of snow South of London?! Mostly EA upwards?! I'm still happy to sit back and wait but really not as much as I thought x

Last night at this time we were talking about a foot of snow and 6ft snow drifts, now its 1cm showing, where did all our snow go in one day?

[CK1981]

2 minutes ago, snowray said:

Last night at this time we were talking about a foot of snow and 6ft snow drifts, now its 1cm showing, where did all our snow go in one day?

If Southern Ireland does better than me, I’m off to Russia. I swear I’m cursed here in Berkshire ??

[snowray]

Just to end on a positive note, Navgem sticks to its guns, its slightly further north, end result being a channel low and we stay in the cold air.

[SMU]

^^^ desperate times ^^^ :)?

[snowray]

5 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

If Southern Ireland does better than me, I’m off to Russia. I swear I’m cursed here in Berkshire ??

Well if I get just 1 cm here I will officially give up too, will be looking for a new winter hobby for next year!

Edited February 25, 2018 by snowray

[CK1981]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

^^^ desperate times ^^^ :)?

Just seen the latest GEFS. I can’t swear on here, but they look awful. Massive flip to mild from almost all members. ??

[pureasthedriven]

6 minutes ago, snowray said:

Just to end on a positive note, Navgem sticks to its guns, its slightly further north, end result being a channel low and we stay in the cold air.

With cold rain to finish ?

[snowray]

1 minute ago, pureasthedriven said:

With cold rain to finish ?

That would not be rain on the Navgem, trust me......

[turkishfella]

they were saying that this is an historic event, unusually cold air to come and stay and lot's of snow, now we are desperate to see even a cm of snow, maybe we won't see that either. Cold stays with us until Thursday night but not so much snow, then turns mild and lots of rain, I am off to some Ski Resort!!!

[Flaked Queen]

Just now, turkishfella said:

they were saying that this is an historic event, unusually cold air to come and stay and lot's of snow, now we are desperate to see even a cm of snow, maybe we won't see that either. Cold stays with us until Thursday night but not so much snow, then turns mild and lots of rain, I am off to some Ski Resort!!!

I’m off to turkey..... in July ?

[snowray]

1 minute ago, Snowflake Queen said:

I’m off to turkey..... in July ?

They get much more snow in Turkey in Winter than we do over here, typical, and hot summers.....

[Flaked Queen]

Just now, snowray said:

They get much more snow in Turkey in Winter than we do over here, typical, and hot summers.....

It was sooo hot last year loved it ! But staying in a very nice hotel this year can’t wait ... after all this let down I need some sun lol 

[turkishfella]

1 minute ago, snowray said:

They get much more snow in Turkey in Winter than we do over here, typical, and hot summers.....

yes actually, they do, my family lives very close to a ski resort, I am off to there if we don't get snow again

[turkishfella]

we already started talking about summer 

[CK1981]

5 minutes ago, turkishfella said:

they were saying that this is an historic event, unusually cold air to come and stay and lot's of snow, now we are desperate to see even a cm of snow, maybe we won't see that either. Cold stays with us until Thursday night but not so much snow, then turns mild and lots of rain, I am off to some Ski Resort!!!

Again, you’re miles off the mark. Yes, it may turn milder later in the week, but if you think we’ll only see a cm or so of snow, you’re so wrong. I’m guessing you’re not familiar with lake effect snow?

[Flaked Queen]

Just now, turkishfella said:

we already started talking about summer 

Might as well ! No blizzards coming our way