SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

[Flaked Queen]

1 minute ago, Stevie B said:

I’m with you @Daniel*. I’ve got a feeling about this! It feels different, like something really unusual is about to happen! 

It is !! Or it better  taps nails on bedside table ( closest thing ) it’s such a waiting game but I’m sure it will be worth it lol 

[Speedbird]

1 minute ago, DAVID SNOW said:

That's exactly why I said the low would not break through.

perb 16 from the GFS 12z showed this, with the low heading ENE then through the southern north sea . . . to me, that's a much more feasible solution and i expect the models to readjust accordingly over subsequent runs

[SMU]

just touched down on the tarmac.

Awful evening runs - ECM gone from hero to zero in 12 hours-

Reduced to just a 5 day cold spell - BUT time can change- havent really looked yet -

see you all tomorrow !

[kold weather]

Unfortunatly Brighton being by the coast will always struggle in any southerly flow just because of the moderation from the water.

Anyway 18z GFS once again show *NO* agreement on what will happen, still has a few of good-great runs, a decent number of snow-rain events and a couple utter horror shows. No real consensus on the track of the low pressure on the 18z GFS ensembles though so could still evolve differently.

 

[Speedbird]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

just touched down on the tarmac.

Awful evening runs - ECM gone from hero to zero in 12 hours-

Reduced to just a 5 day cold spell - BUT time can change- havent really looked yet -

see you all tomorrow !

I hope things look much better for us all after a good nights sleep . . .

[Chris101]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

just touched down on the tarmac.

Awful evening runs - ECM gone from hero to zero in 12 hours-

Reduced to just a 5 day cold spell - BUT time can change- havent really looked yet -

see you all tomorrow !

Welcome Home

[CK1981]

6 minutes ago, turkishfella said:

why? I don't claim that I am an expert anyway but these are what I learned from my experience so far, sorry if they are wrong.

By the way here iare some attachements. First one is snow and rainfall graphy for Brighton between today and Next saturday. The second one shows that Thursday half day the milder air is entering the region which means precipitations will be rain. Do you think am I wrong? 

 

I’m not saying you’re wrong, but there’s a lot to be resolved before Friday. I believe, and of course I could be wrong, the models are too progressive. We cannot say with any confidence the mild air will move in. The Met Office still believe the cold will hang on. Let’s see what their update tomorrow says, but they have access to more data and more accurate high res models 

[Flaked Queen]

Oh for god sake  mr murr why oh why ! I’ve spent hours on here I shaved the dog all patchy coz I was too into my phone and checking weather ... I held a lollipop ladies hand to cross the road coz I was to busy on my phone ! I’ve gave my life up this week to be told I’m covered in snow to now nope andrea no snow for you ! I don’t want cold I want extreme snow event ... that’s it “ puts away my bright pink unicorn wellies “ and sulks and welcome back btw  

Edited February 24, 2018 by Snowflake Queen

[lawrenk]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

just touched down on the tarmac.

Awful evening runs - ECM gone from hero to zero in 12 hours-

Reduced to just a 5 day cold spell - BUT time can change- havent really looked yet -

see you all tomorrow !

Welcome back!

[pureasthedriven]

9 minutes ago, Stevie B said:

I’m with you @Daniel*. I’ve got a feeling about this! It feels different, like something really unusual is about to happen! 

Yeah, its going to snow in London for more than an hour! 

[lassie23]

too far north too far south, they are all nuts in the MOD thread

[Lowestoft Weather]

The North Sea is stirring up now on the latest Satellite IR. Looks like plenty of snow here in Lowestoft next week. Will hopefully see some lightning/snow storms at times too. Met Office warnings of lightning near N.Sea coasts. 

Took a wonder down to the beach an hour ago and it was absolutely freezing cold with gusty winds and a rough sea.

Let the games commence. The grass is green....... let’s play! 

BV

[Speedbird]

15 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

144 won't though...

it's an outlier from T144 - way out of line

[Norfolk Sheep]

I wouldn't worry about the lunatics oop norf have a pop about the potential (or lack of) for the E/SE. We can all have a jolly good laugh later in the year when we have glorious sunny hot weather whilst they huddle under a murky layer of low cloud and drizzle 

[CK1981]

Just now, Snowflake Queen said:

Oh for god sake  mr murr why oh why ! I’ve spent hours on here I shaved the dog all patchy coz I was too into my phone and checking weather ... I held a lollipop ladies hand to cross the road coz I was to busy on my phone ! I’ve gave my life up this week to be told I’m covered in snow to now nope andrea no snow for you ! I don’t want cold I want extreme snow event ... that’s it “ puts away my bright pink unicorn wellies “ and sulks 

 

2 minutes ago, Snowflake Queen said:

Oh for god sake  mr murr why oh why ! I’ve spent hours on here I shaved the dog all patchy coz I was too into my phone and checking weather ... I held a lollipop ladies hand to cross the road coz I was to busy on my phone ! I’ve gave my life up this week to be told I’m covered in snow to now nope andrea no snow for you ! I don’t want cold I want extreme snow event ... that’s it “ puts away my bright pink unicorn wellies “ and sulks 

I’m sure Mr Murr will agree with me here. The models have flipped unfavourably, but they can flip again. If the Met back track tomorrow, I’ll throw the towel, but I don’t think they will

[Weather Boy]

7 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

That's exactly why I said the low would not break through.

My feeling is this is right. Why?

Well, blizzards in a snowy breakdown were forecast in 1987 (I think it might have been). Forecast to be midlands or even further north but didn’t get further than Devon. Obviously forecasts are much better now but that was an error in forecasting that night, we are now discussing something 6 days away. Same situation I feel just more days away.

Second BBC not really discussing milder weather in forecast for next weekends weather. Not even mentioned as a possibility right now.

Third, SSW played havoc with models, looks like second one is doing the same.

My current bet is that frontal system gets barely up beyond the channel. Downside for snow lovers if I’m right is no snow from it. In which case just have to be content with 10-20 cm predicted from showers for those of us in the east at least!

[pureasthedriven]

2 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

 

I’m sure Mr Murr will agree with me here. The models have flipped unfavourably, but they can flip again. If the Met back track tomorrow, I’ll throw the towel, but I don’t think they will

Yep. Quite an indicative overnighter from them I would’ve thought. I’d be surprised at a MetO flip, given their recent confidence, but not surprised to see at least a dilution of today’s outstanding 15-30 dayer. Something evidently afoot. 

[Flaked Queen]

4 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

 

I’m sure Mr Murr will agree with me here. The models have flipped unfavourably, but they can flip again. If the Met back track tomorrow, I’ll throw the towel, but I don’t think they will

Was such a build up thou  

[kold weather]

5 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

 

I’m sure Mr Murr will agree with me here. The models have flipped unfavourably, but they can flip again. If the Met back track tomorrow, I’ll throw the towel, but I don’t think they will

The one positive to hold onto is both the ECM and GFS ensembles are suggesting a decent spell of snow on average. The last time the operationals decided to try to kill this cold spell the ensembles held firm, and they proved to be correct. Could be that the operationals are over-developing the upper feature in the Atlantic.

By the way, even at 3hrs out the high resolution models are underestimating the snowfall in the Baltic sea. The EURO4 barely has a trace of the streamer in the Baltic yetits been going strong nearly all day.

Edited February 24, 2018 by kold weather

[CK1981]

Right, we need some balance here.

We are on the cusp of a historic event which will bring snow to many!

Friday is a long way off in meteorological terms and it will keep changing.

I believe it will stay cold, but I urge all to follow the Met Office updates and not get too carried away with individual operational runs.

[Speedbird]

Just now, Snowflake Queen said:

Was such a build up thou  

the evolution to the breakdown just looks wrong in isolation . . . 

[DAVID SNOW]

2 minutes ago, Weather Boy said:

My feeling is this is right. Why?

Well, blizzards in a snowy breakdown were forecast in 1987 (I think it might have been). Forecast to be midlands or even further north but didn’t get further than Devon. Obviously forecasts are much better now but that was an error in forecasting that night, we are now discussing something 6 days away. Same situation I feel just more days away.

Second BBC not really discussing milder weather in forecast for next weekends weather. Not even mentioned as a possibility right now.

Third, SSW played havoc with models, looks like second one is doing the same.

My current bet is that frontal system gets barely up beyond the channel. Downside for snow lovers if I’m right is no snow from it. In which case just have to be content with 10-20 cm predicted from showers for those of us in the east at least!

Agreed.

[snowray]

32 minutes ago, Nick F said:

UKMO-GM has the low in that position on Thursday before tracking it north and all goes pear shaped

Yes indeed, It seems I was getting a bit carried away. Anyway the GFS ens (short) is out for London and the op is almost a warm outlier, right at the very top there along with the control, lots of colder solutions, plenty cold enough to support an all snow event from a channel low anyway.

Edited February 24, 2018 by snowray

[Nick F]

10 minutes ago, Norfolk Sheep said:

I wouldn't worry about the lunatics oop norf have a pop about the potential (or lack of) for the E/SE. We can all have a jolly good laugh later in the year when we have glorious sunny hot weather whilst they huddle under a murky layer of low cloud and drizzle 

Agree, northern contingent were certainly egging on the low for Friday to get far enough north so that they can get pasted by snow while we get snow to rain and milder, but should be careful what they wished for, as the low on the 12z GFS got so far north that the north warmed up too.

Anyway, 12z EC a stonking mild outlier from the 3rd, though the ens mean heading less cold too.

 

 

Edited February 24, 2018 by Nick F

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, snowray said:

Yes indeed, It seems I was getting a bit carried away. Anyway the GFS ens (short) is out for London and the op is almost a warm outlier, right at the very top there along with the control, lots of colder solutions, certainly cold enough to produce an all snow event from a channel low anyway.

The mean would imply it would be cold enough to be all snow. On basis if dew points behave. It will turn less cold however beforehand it would be brutally cold so this is expected it’ll still be cold..