SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

[shotski]

A quick scan through the extended EPS and it’s below all the way out to 360 hours. A milder blip at 144 when the low hits the south coast. 

[tinybill]

14 minutes ago, moogyboobles said:

I want to say back of the net to you, but I'm not so sure.
Stop doing ramping wrong!

er  i knowthat lot over the border have got 6 fingers ,plus the same dna    they should stick to stamp collecting!!

[craigore]

Gfs&Ecm&Gem&Ukmo all in agreement Cold gets blown away by Friday

Cant honestly see it but im no expert .

We put our faith in the models &thats wot they are showing.

Oh & wind not favourable for snow in kent.

Roll on Spring.

 

Edited February 24, 2018 by craigore

[kold weather]

First hints of a Thames streamer on the 12z Euro4 (higher resolution model) nothing too strong and it may be underestimating it, but even if it is accurate as the day goes the insability will increase markedly.

[Donna3397]

1 minute ago, lawrenk said:

Nothing to feel despondent about at this stage.

As has been said many times, ignore the Apps, this forum will be the best and most reliable place to get the lowdown on where and when from the likes of Steve M, Cap Shortwave and many others.

Your probably right. It just feels like a lick in the teeth when you see bits and bobs on apps. I’m a novice novice   when it comes to reading models, I do try but when you don’t have very much knowledge it’s very hard not to look to the people that are supposed have all our weathery knowledge and listen to their advice 

[CK1981]

1 minute ago, craigore said:

Gfs&Ecm&Gem&Ukmo all in agreement Cold gets blown away by Friday

Cant honestly see it but im no expert .

We put our faith in the models &thats wot they are showing.

Oh & wind not favourable for snow in kent.

Roll on Spring.

 

It’ll change.

The Met Office wouldn’t be so bullish with their outlook if there was any doubt.

[Donna3397]

5 minutes ago, shotski said:

A quick scan through the extended EPS and it’s below all the way out to 360 hours. A milder blip at 144 when the low hits the south coast. 

Is that further out than Friday sorry

[turkishfella]

1 hour ago, john mac said:

The key for me is how that deep cold gets smashed out of the way so easily. Can’t see it panning out like that.

hopefully @john mac it's really annoying otherwise. We will start getting some snow and then warming up again (if this really happens) 

[kate1]

25 minutes ago, chelsea01 said:

So the south east getting nothing now just the midlands and north

 

 

 

Personally I'd rather trust the Met Office: here's the forecast for London and the South East from Monday through to Wednesday: 

Extremely cold. Snow showers developing, becoming widespread and heavier later Monday. Frequent, occasionally heavy snow showers continuing Tuesday and Wednesday, leading to locally significant accumulations. Becoming windy from Tuesday.

Not quite sure how that translates to 'the south east getting nothing'. 

 

 

Edited February 24, 2018 by kate1

[londonblizzard]

I know the basic online weekly forecasts are generally not to be trusted, but wow currently such differences between the 5 day BBC and the 5 day Met Office forecasts for London:

BBC: Mon 3°, Tue 2°, Wed 1°, Thur 3°, Fri 4°

Met Office: Mon 2°, Tue 2°, Wed 0°, Thur 0°, Fri 2°

I know who I'M gonna trust.

[Candice]

5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

First hints of a Thames streamer on the 12z Euro4 (higher resolution model) nothing too strong and it may be underestimating it, but even if it is accurate as the day goes the insability will increase markedly.

 

Edited February 24, 2018 by Candice
Delete

[moogyboobles]

3 minutes ago, tinybill said:

er  i knowthat lot over the border have got 6 fingers ,plus the same dna    they should stick to stamp collecting!!

Oh I don't do geographical stereotypes, being an Essex girl called Tracy, but I do do Partridge quotes. 

I'm half way through doing my wedding show, had a great conversation with a gran of a bride about next week. She was saying she's been telling her friends to prepare but they don't believe her. She was glad to meet me.

[Great Plum]

Panic not guys and girls; even if it’s over by Friday, most of us will have seen some snow...

however, still time to change and the Met are currently having none of it - see Reigate’s forecast for Friday...

 

[londonblizzard]

Loving Met Office's confidence for continued cold and snow for this period. 
They used to be so timid!

[craigore]

3 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

It’ll change.

The Met Office wouldn’t be so bullish with their outlook if there was any doubt.

Well if they turn out to be right , then big praise as right now they are in no mans land. ( in other words on there own).

[Candice]

Possibly a Wash Streamer too

Edited February 24, 2018 by Candice
Add image

[tinybill]

https://www.buienradar.nl/

alli say is all eyes on the dutch  radar  and  my rain alarm pro  from sunday  !!

[shotski]

Just now, DonnaThw said:

Is that further out than Friday sorry

Hi, 

yes all the way out to the week after next. 

Rule A: ignore the doomsday merchants in the Mad thread. 

Rule B: take posters who say we’re going to get buried in snow with a pinch of salt. 

If truth be known no one knows how much or where at the moment so best to start checking on Monday. ?

[sawan]

18 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

Metcheck use GFS data, so bin that forecast ?

They don't just use GFS, far from it. They use quite a few models. Check their website. Their forecast is mostly right on the money. 

[CK1981]

1 minute ago, craigore said:

Well if they turn out to be right , then big praise as right now they are in no mans land. ( in other words on there own).

They have access to better data.

[craigore]

4 minutes ago, Great Plum said:

Panic not guys and girls; even if it’s over by Friday, most of us will have seen some snow...

however, still time to change and the Met are currently having none of it - see Reigate’s forecast for Friday...

 

What app is that u r using. ?

[CK1981]

1 minute ago, sawan said:

They don't just use GFS, far from it. They use quite a few models. Check their website. Their forecast is mostly right on the money. 

I disagree, their forecasts, especially after day 3 are usually very suspect. They must use a blend of models, but their forecasts often mirror GFS output, and I bet it does today!

[Great Plum]

1 minute ago, craigore said:

What app is that u r using. ?

It’s the met office app

[Speedbird]

Just now, CK1981 said:

I disagree, their forecasts, especially after day 3 are usually very suspect. They must use a blend of models, but their forecasts often mirror GFS output, and I bet it does today!

I don't follow Met Check having been led up the garden path by them once too may times before.

I'll stick to the tried and tested - and to the decent people in here.

[Donna3397]

4 minutes ago, shotski said:

Hi, 

yes all the way out to the week after next. 

Rule A: ignore the doomsday merchants in the Mad thread. 

Rule B: take posters who say we’re going to get buried in snow with a pinch of salt. 

If truth be known no one knows how much or where at the moment so best to start checking on Monday. ?

Thank you for that sweet optimistic post