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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards


Captain Shortwave

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Posted
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
4 hours ago, yamkin said:

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days - Updated: 15:19 on Sat 24 Feb 2018 GMT

UK Outlook for Thursday 1 Mar 2018 to Saturday 10 Mar 2018:
March will begin very cold with sunshine and snow showers, these continuing to bring some accumulations especially across eastern parts. Friday could see heavier and disruptive snow developing across southern and some central areas, combined with strong to gale force easterly winds, leading to blizzard conditions. However, there is a lot of uncertainty with this. Thereafter, it is likely to remain very cold through early March with further snow showers in the east and southeast. The best of the sunshine is likely in the west, but all areas will feel bitterly cold in strong winds with a significant wind chill. Overnight frost will be widespread and severe in places. At times, it may turn more unsettled and less cold across the west and southwest.

UK Outlook for Sunday 11 Mar 2018 to Sunday 25 Mar 2018:
The start of this period is likely to remain very cold across much of the UK, with bitterly cold easterly winds giving a significant wind chill. There will continue to be a risk of snow across southern, eastern and some central areas, but in the north and west it should be drier. Frosts will continue to be widespread and severe in places. As we head towards the middle of March it may turn more unsettled and less cold with milder and wetter weather spreading up from the south or southwest. This may lead to further significant snow in places although this remains very uncertain. Northern areas may hang on to the colder weather well into March.

It’s an outstanding update, best so far. Yeah, the models are freaking out a bit. But until the hithero rock solid MetO start to wobble, I’m happy.  

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Posted
  • Location: Strood Kent asl 63m
  • Weather Preferences: cold and hot in summer
  • Location: Strood Kent asl 63m
11 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Type up from met check 

Advanced Weather Warning for Ice, Snow and Blowing Snow

A period of much colder weather is expected to reach the UK throughout the course of Monday with snow showers developing across Eastern parts of the UK. Throughout Monday these snow showers are likely to become better organised and move further inland, especially for regions around the Thames Valley, Wash and Humber. 

During Tuesday morning, a more organised band of snow is expected to approach from the North Sea and affect parts of Northeast and Eastern England before pushing further inland. 

Accumulations locally of 5-10cm are expected with the risk of blowing snow across parts of Northeast England and routes across the Pennines during Tuesday. 

Widespread ice is expected overnight across all parts of the British Isles throughout next week combined with a significant wind chill. Further wintry showers are expected throughout much of next week as small scale disturbances develop within the cold Easterly flow, however, at the moment these are too early to forecast or speculate on. 

Please note that whilst this advanced warning expires on Friday 2 March this is likely to be extended as details become clearer. 

So the south east getting nothing now just the midlands and north

 

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Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
1 minute ago, MagicBat said:

Hi CK1981, after many weeks of cold hunting it's now on our doorstep. The change was always going to be around the 24th Feb / backend of Feb. I wouldn't worry about lack of snow. Our area has several days of snow showers. Some heavy, some not. Snow showers hit the coast at 8pm /9pm tomorrow. Enjoy!

Oh I agree with you and many will do very well, unfortunately, I’m not best placed for the biggest falls 

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Posted
  • Location: South Woodham Ferrers, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: South Woodham Ferrers, Essex
2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

I think the cold spell will end up as a very damp squib...just like our football under McCarthy :)

I want to say back of the net to you, but I'm not so sure.
Stop doing ramping wrong!

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Posted
  • Location: Minster Ramsgate Kent
  • Location: Minster Ramsgate Kent
1 minute ago, chelsea01 said:

So the south east getting nothing now just the midlands and north

 

Oh what a surprise, at least it's not raining with SW winds (yet)?

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Posted
  • Location: Ramsgate,East Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: BEASTERLYS
  • Location: Ramsgate,East Kent.
42 minutes ago, c00ps said:

Anyone in Kent concerned about the lack of opportunity for snow this week. Apart from Monday/Tuesday I think that’ll be it for us. The winds aren’t right. In 87/91 they were E/NE and delivered. By Wednesday they be SE. Great for Essex/Suffolk probably. Obviously there’s Friday but that might be snow to rain. Fingers crossed though 

Right there wth you.

Cant believe how this bitterly cold air is bulldozed away by the iberian low so quick , was not expecting this scenario at all. But wth most of the big mods now in agreement its the pill we have to swallow.

Also unfortunaly i share your concerns wth the shower activity over kent in the coming days , we need the long ENE fetch to get the big snow here.

Dissapointed wth the output tonite .

Was all looking very promising just a day ago (Fridays forcast)

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Rye East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: snow (but who doesnt like that)
  • Location: Rye East Sussex

I have to say that I feel really down in the dumps. I really don’t want others to feel lost or this but it’s how I feel I went to the mod thread to be told about the warm weather coming Ming up to get us in the SE. Then I check several different forecasts to see hardly any snow mentioned for the SE. I thought that the SE, Kent, east were in the firing line. I feel like the next north are going to get all the fun AGAIN. 

 

Just read the the three posts above me, it’s scary that we are all thinking this now. 

Edited by DonnaThw
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Posted
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and ice
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
4 minutes ago, chelsea01 said:

So the south east getting nothing now just the midlands and north

 

Met Check ?

Better off stick to the Met Office . . . that Met Check forecast sounds a million miles away from reality

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Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham
  • Location: Cheltenham

I’m a bit worried by the lack of response from SM, unless he’s at 30,000 ft.

No offence Mulzy, just that I find Steve’s comments very relevant.  I still appreciate your comments for Fairway.

 

Edited by Sharpedge
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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

Nothing worse than having some nice fresh snow then all being drained away by rain...hopefully we'll see a good few days of snow and then it will be Cashback!...just east from you @moogyboobles so I'll give you a convection call out as they head your way - hopefully :)

Edited by Froze were the Days
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Posted
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.
2 minutes ago, DonnaThw said:

I have to say that I feel really down in the dumps. I really don’t want others to feel lost or this but it’s how I feel I went to the mod thread to be told about the warm weather coming Ming up to get us in the SE. Then I check several different forecasts to see hardly any snow mentioned for the SE. I thought that the SE, Kent, east were in the firing line. I feel like the next north are going to get all the fun AGAIN. 

Watch the models not the forecast. They won’t pick up on local features 

Edited by john mac
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Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
1 minute ago, Speedbird said:

Met Check ?

Better off stick to the Met Office . . . that Met Check forecast sounds a million miles away from reality

Metcheck use GFS data, so bin that forecast ?

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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
1 hour ago, leemondo said:

Isn't it strange how many different, virtually unseen posters, who never comment in the MAD thread, seem to come out when there may be a possible end in sight??? 

Gets right on my t*ts that the trolls come out in force and declare it as gospel, yes it may happen, but as a second SSW has just occurrd surely given what we saw before this epic spell came to fruition, the model runs are getting a lot of conflicting signals and trying to pin the tail on the donkey

Agreed. I got a bit cross earlier, especially after reading some posts from other (more northern) regions being a bit spiteful about possible rain and milder temperatures here in the SE later this week. Must say...I can’t wait for summer....

Rain or not, the coming week holds plenty of interest and potential for a good dumping of snow for much of our region. Bitterly cold, too. I’ll be happy to see some heavy snow showers here :) Felt freezing out this afternoon, here comes the cold.

 

Edited by stainesbloke
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Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
1 minute ago, stainesbloke said:

Agreed. I got a bit cross earlier, especially after reading some posts from other (more northern) regions being a bit spiteful about possible rain and milder temperatures here  in the SE later this week. Must say...I can’t wait for summer....

Rain or not, the coming week holds plenty of interest and potential for a good dumping of snow for much of our region. Bitterly cold, too. I’ll be happy to see some heavy snow showers here :) Felt freezing out this afternoon, here comes the cold.

 

That’s northerners for you ??

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
11 minutes ago, chelsea01 said:

So the south east getting nothing now just the midlands and north

 

Last time I heard the Thames Valley IS in the SE??

I'll b stunned if there isn't a decent amount of snow from Monday-Wednesday evening...and I STILL think a foot is not just probable, but likely in favoured spots and the models nearly always FAIL at this type of set-up as they simply can't pick up the showers due to the resolution of the models not being good enough this far out. Expect the high resolution models to pick it up as we get closer to the time, maybe tomorrow evening.

Three main spots for high snowfalls is NE England, the Wash area and the Thames valley.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
13 minutes ago, Biensie said:

I don’t know how to do a quote to a different thread, sorry, so it’s copy and paste but just so you know I’m usually glass half full and certainly don’t want to dampen any excitement as I’ve been waiting ages for our turn!  this was from TEITS:

 

On a different note I do feel sorry for those in the far SE though i.e Kent. Whilst the snow showers will continue during Wed onwards for N England/Scotland, the convective days for the far SE only appear to be Mon/Tues due to the flow veering ESE,ly. The likes of Norfolk, Suffolk and maybe Essex may still pick up a few snow showers.

As it stands, Weds may be less showery than Mon and Tues. Less. Before the chance of heavy frontal snow Thurs/Fri. And then likely convective showers into SE beyond the weekend. I’ll take my chances. 

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton
  • Weather Preferences: snow cold,storms and heat
  • Location: Brighton

Hi guys and girls , I popped in about 2 hours ago and had a read , was feeling really optimistic , just came back and lots of down in the dumps posts !! What’s happened ? Has it gone pear shaped ?? I’m confused can anyone let me know in a non confusing way ? as I’m not that brainy especially after a few glasses of bubbles ?

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
2 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Agreed. I got a bit cross earlier, especially after reading some posts from other (more northern) regions being a bit spiteful about possible rain and milder temperatures here  in the SE later this week. Must say...I can’t wait for summer....

Rain or not, the coming week holds plenty of interest and potential for a good dumping of snow for much of our region. Bitterly cold, too. I’ll be happy to see some heavy snow showers here :) Felt freezing out this afternoon, here comes the cold.

 

I think some of them only do it so as to get a reaction, anyway...Let's face it, we all know that the upcoming cold blast will come to and end eventually? Summer will be rather awful if it doesn't!:santa-emoji:

BTW, I still find the Met. Office is the gold standard, when it comes to extended forecasts...

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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
Just now, CK1981 said:

That’s northerners for you ??

I don’t get it, surely most of us would love to see a good snowfall before winter is out? Must be a lot of trolls at the moment.

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Posted
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and ice
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
3 minutes ago, Marie said:

Hi guys and girls , I popped in about 2 hours ago and had a read , was feeling really optimistic , just came back and lots of down in the dumps posts !! What’s happened ? Has it gone pear shaped ?? I’m confused can anyone let me know in a non confusing way ? as I’m not that brainy especially after a few glasses of bubbles ?

still on track, ignore the doom-meisters - although i wouldn't say you were in the most favourable of locations until later in the week . . .

Edited by Speedbird
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Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
1 minute ago, Marie said:

Hi guys and girls , I popped in about 2 hours ago and had a read , was feeling really optimistic , just came back and lots of down in the dumps posts !! What’s happened ? Has it gone pear shaped ?? I’m confused can anyone let me know in a non confusing way ? as I’m not that brainy especially after a few glasses of bubbles ?

All looking good, especially up to Thursday. The low on Friday is causing a headache, with milder air moving into our region. I think this is unlikely to happen, with us staying cold, but it is an option on the table and cannot be disregarded.

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Posted
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow and ice days
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex
9 minutes ago, DonnaThw said:

I have to say that I feel really down in the dumps. I really don’t want others to feel lost or this but it’s how I feel I went to the mod thread to be told about the warm weather coming Ming up to get us in the SE. Then I check several different forecasts to see hardly any snow mentioned for the SE. I thought that the SE, Kent, east were in the firing line. I feel like the next north are going to get all the fun AGAIN. 

 

Just read the the three posts above me, it’s scary that we are all thinking this now. 

Nothing to feel despondent about at this stage.

As has been said many times, ignore the Apps, this forum will be the best and most reliable place to get the lowdown on where and when from the likes of Steve M, Cap Shortwave and many others.

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Posted
  • Location: Benfleet Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow of course
  • Location: Benfleet Essex
7 minutes ago, Marie said:

Hi guys and girls , I popped in about 2 hours ago and had a read , was feeling really optimistic , just came back and lots of down in the dumps posts !! What’s happened ? Has it gone pear shaped ?? I’m confused can anyone let me know in a non confusing way ? as I’m not that brainy especially after a few glasses of bubbles ?

It's just an example of when social media " doesn't" work  TOO much info, in the old days you were told it was going to snow and that was it! then you waited for it to fall! opened your curtains with excitement or disappointment -it was so easy

Edited by Rinse The Raindrops
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Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
1 minute ago, stainesbloke said:

I don’t get it, surely most of us would love to see a good snowfall before winter is out? Must be a lot of trolls at the moment.

Yes, I think there are a lot of trolls which have nothing meaningful to add to any debate!

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