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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards


Captain Shortwave

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Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire

The trend later next week is making me nervous. 

What the hell is forcing the low so far north against the cold block.....it just doesn’t make any sense at all.

I bet the second strat warming is setting up a west based -NAO to pee on our parade ?

Edited by CK1981
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Posted
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow,thunder,tornados
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl
1 minute ago, DonnaThw said:

It seems from the bbc forecast that has just been put up will bring in showers to east anglia up but not so much the south like Dover across

Bbc forecasts have been appalling in my eyes,even yesterday they were showing temps of 7c in london,terrible,trouble is people believe it,my dad is a prime example,I told him 3 days ago,that there is a chance of some big falls of snow,he laughed,replying,there's nothing abput it at all on the bbc,said it might get colder,but no mention of snow,they'll be surprises this week,if you're in the sweetspot

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Posted
  • Location: Romford, Essex (previously Biggin Hill, Kent)
  • Weather Preferences: Easygoing, but winter is meant to be white, dammit!
  • Location: Romford, Essex (previously Biggin Hill, Kent)
12 minutes ago, JennyJane1 said:

Yeah i know but in general, can trains run in that? I am meant to be going from Great Yarmouth to Norwich then to Peterborough then to Doncaster and back again.

As a driver, you have to know the rule book inside out.....they're curiously specific about depths for standing water and snow.

8 inches of snow...anything more and the job stops.  Even with less than 8 inches, journey times are increased as you have to do frequent maximum braking tests to keep the brake rigging from freezing up.

So...it all depends on how good our stellar Network Rail guys are at keeping the lines clear really...and that goes countrywide, not just South Essex.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Don't worry about the beeb forecast not showing too many showers, the model they are using at that range will not have the resolution to pick up the showers in the southern section of the north sea and into the esturary due to the resolution. Even the high resolution models struggle with this.

If you want to see what it looks like, take a look at N.Germany today, 850hpa temps are as cold as they are there presently when they get here on Monday...except our seas are warmer so in theory even more instablity.

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Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
2 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

The trend later next week is making me nervous. 

What the hell is forcing the low so far north against the cold block.....it just doesn’t make any sense at all.

I bet the second strat warming is setting up a west based -NAO to pee on our parade ?

As some op models are suggesting a breakdown to the cold around Friday. I think the models are being too progressive with the low pressure pushing further north. Once the beast fully arrives tomorrow night, the cold will be hard to shift.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
4 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

The trend later next week is making me nervous. 

What the hell is forcing the low so far north against the cold block.....it just doesn’t make any sense at all.

I bet the second strat warming is setting up a west based -NAO to pee on our parade ?

What is happening is the cold pool that shoots out to our west on Weds/Thurs begins to develop an upper low over the Atlantic as its on the exit of the upper jet. It strengthens and deepens and as it does it interacts with the low to its south-east and they start to circulate around a central point around each other. Effectively our cold easterly pool slingshots the LP towards us in the end as the upper cold pool/low is forced on a more southerly track by the upper high over Greenland.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Romford, Essex (previously Biggin Hill, Kent)
  • Weather Preferences: Easygoing, but winter is meant to be white, dammit!
  • Location: Romford, Essex (previously Biggin Hill, Kent)
14 minutes ago, Southender said:

Haha. Won’t be getting the early one out of Southend East next week then

I'd keep a close eye on the website....we'll do our best to run, but realistically there will be quite a few cancelled services....perhaps some shuttles if only part of the route is blocked.

But the rules are there for a reason.....and I don't fancy being at the front of a (at minimum) 157 ton train at 65mph if it all goes bent. :rofl: Doubt the people behind would be too thrilled either.......

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Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
Just now, yamkin said:

As some op models are suggesting a breakdown to the cold around Friday. I think the models are being too progressive with the low pressure pushing further north. Once the beast fully arrives tomorrow night, the cold will be hard to shift.

When the GFS sent the low north I disregarded it because it’s notoriously progressive. Since then other models have followed its lead, with the biggest surprise being the ECM after the UKMO.

I do hope they’re not picking up a trend here driven by the strat. 

Anyway, plenty of interest before then for us all.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
1 hour ago, Southender said:

Christ. I’m pretending I didn’t see that ECM run. That’s a real kick in the nethers. Long way to go but that sort of sh** can do one. Hopefully a massive outlier. Time to forget later next week for now, so much excitement before then. Remain calm ???

Looking at the PPN charts it seems to me that the northerners are going to do a lot better out of this, typical.

SEly by weds, then warming up down here. Oh well, lets hope for the best for our 2 days worth, Monday and Tuesday, as they say beggars cant be choosers.....

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Posted
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and ice
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
13 minutes ago, JennyJane1 said:

I've walked from westcliff to benfleet station a couple of times, would take forever if you have to go to work though.

wowsers . . . that's a long old walk. Not too bad in the summer, but wouldn't want to do it this week !!!

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

That forecast severely underplayed snow showers into SE England on Tuesday. Wednesday looks very good for East Anglia, you benefit from the longer sea track more time to pick up moisture unlike Dover..

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Posted
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and ice
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
1 minute ago, echodelta21 said:

I'd keep a close eye on the website....we'll do our best to run, but realistically there will be quite a few cancelled services....perhaps some shuttles if only part of the route is blocked.

But the rules are there for a reason.....and I don't fancy being at the front of a (at minimum) 157 ton train at 65mph if it all goes bent. :rofl: Doubt the people behind would be too thrilled either.......

could you do your best not to run ?

I have a couple of excited kids who want to plaster their dad with snowballs . . . .

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Posted
  • Location: Linford, Essex
  • Location: Linford, Essex
Just now, Speedbird said:

could you do your best not to run ?

I have a couple of excited kids who want to plaster their dad with snowballs . . . .

Exactly. My Missus takes the C2C from East Tilbury. Would be great if it could give us a miss for a few days! :D

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Posted
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.
29 minutes ago, turkishfella said:

here is the latest GFS run from now to next Saturday, now it looks a little bit more promising, cold is coming back after a quite mild wave:

giphy.gif

The key for me is how that deep cold gets smashed out of the way so easily. Can’t see it panning out like that.

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Posted
  • Location: Romford, Essex (previously Biggin Hill, Kent)
  • Weather Preferences: Easygoing, but winter is meant to be white, dammit!
  • Location: Romford, Essex (previously Biggin Hill, Kent)
Just now, Speedbird said:

could you do your best not to run ?

I have a couple of excited kids who want to plaster their dad with snowballs . . . .

:D I can think of a few colleagues that deserve a couple too.  It all depends on the situation at the time.....the railway is very much damned if you do and damned if you don't.

I can guarantee some people will complain like hell if nothing runs at all....but the weather is the weather. If it truly honks it down, then trains can't be run safely.  No safety = no running.

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Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
10 minutes ago, kold weather said:

What is happening is the cold pool that shoots out to our west on Weds/Thurs begins to develop an upper low over the Atlantic as its on the exit of the upper jet. It strengthens and deepens and as it does it interacts with the low to its south-east and they start to circulate around a central point around each other. Effectively our cold easterly pool slingshots the LP towards us in the end as the upper cold pool/low is forced on a more southerly track by the upper high over Greenland.

Interesting! I still think the block will put up a fight, but we’ll see.

I’d love to see what MOGREPS is showing. The Met Office is steadfast on their colder outlook. Maybe the other models (which we see) are being too progressive. 

What a pickle ?

Edited by CK1981
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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
10 minutes ago, snowrye said:

Bbc forecasts have been appalling in my eyes,even yesterday they were showing temps of 7c in london,terrible,trouble is people believe it,my dad is a prime example,I told him 3 days ago,that there is a chance of some big falls of snow,he laughed,replying,there's nothing abput it at all on the bbc,said it might get colder,but no mention of snow,they'll be surprises this week,if you're in the sweetspot

tell me about been trying to tell them at work all i get back the bbc  are not saying  it its going to be dry

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Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft

Anyone in Kent concerned about the lack of opportunity for snow this week. Apart from Monday/Tuesday I think that’ll be it for us. The winds aren’t right. In 87/91 they were E/NE and delivered. By Wednesday they be SE. Great for Essex/Suffolk probably. Obviously there’s Friday but that might be snow to rain. Fingers crossed though 

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Posted
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.
15 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

The trend later next week is making me nervous. 

What the hell is forcing the low so far north against the cold block.....it just doesn’t make any sense at all.

I bet the second strat warming is setting up a west based -NAO to pee on our parade ?

Was that not meant to start showing its hand around the 4th? I’m sure I read it?

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Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
1 minute ago, john mac said:

Was that not meant to start showing its hand around the 4th? I’m sure I read it?

I’m starting to lose the plot myself lol.@kold weather has made an excellent point looking at the bigger picture.....I’ve been too focused on the low pressure itself.

 

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Posted
  • Location: St Leonards-on-Sea
  • Location: St Leonards-on-Sea

Hi everyone,

Been lurking for a few days and thought I'd say hi! 

Watching developments with excitement, have just stocked up on a few essentials just in case it hits hard here (similar to Dec 2010/March 2013). When I say essentials, I mean soup, bread, brandy...

Just caught the weather for the week ahead from the BBC, not seen a forecast like that for so long although I am now wondering if the SE will be hit as hard as first thought :cc_confused:

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Posted
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.
14 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

When the GFS sent the low north I disregarded it because it’s notoriously progressive. Since then other models have followed its lead, with the biggest surprise being the ECM after the UKMO.

I do hope they’re not picking up a trend here driven by the strat. 

Anyway, plenty of interest before then for us all.

I do think looking back this winter that ECM had been very progressive on a regular basis.

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

all i say this is a bulls eye all  crap on the mad tread  the out look good to  me

gens-16-1-174.png

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

PS, winds at the layer that counts are NOT SE on Wednesday, they go from ESE to ENE and back again throughout the day.

DONT look at the 500hpa lines and assume that is the wind direction, because it isn't. The steering currents will be between 750-500hpa.GFSOPUK12_96_27.png

GFSOPUK12_99_27.png

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
1 minute ago, TommyB said:

Hi everyone,

Been lurking for a few days and thought I'd say hi! 

Watching developments with excitement, have just stocked up on a few essentials just in case it hits hard here (similar to Dec 2010/March 2013). When I say essentials, I mean soup, bread, brandy...

Just caught the weather for the week ahead from the BBC, not seen a forecast like that for so long although I am now wondering if the SE will be hit as hard as first thought :cc_confused:

i don't any notice of the bbc weather its never been so bad i just look at the gfs

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

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