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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards


Captain Shortwave

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Posted
  • Location: Herts
  • Location: Herts
1 minute ago, lassie23 said:

most models are following the gfs for a quick breakdown next week and thaw, is it only one run, or a trend to worry about, flug knows, but if it is, there wil be a lot of flugged off people in here, south west winds are such fluggers:angry:

There's a lot of models to go through before we know what will happen! 

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
1 minute ago, lassie23 said:

most models are following the gfs for a quick breakdown next week and thaw, is it only one run, or a trend to worry about, flug knows, but if it is, there wil be a lot of flugged off people in here, south west winds are such fluggers:angry:

I won't be upset. 

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Posted
  • Location: Work Haverhill Suffolk. Live in Thurrock
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Cold.
  • Location: Work Haverhill Suffolk. Live in Thurrock
7 minutes ago, Southender said:

Christ. I’m pretending I didn’t see that ECM run. That’s a real kick in the nethers. Long way to go but that sort of sh** can do one. Hopefully a massive outlier. Time to forget later next week for now, so much excitement before then. Remain calm ???

Yes mate. I’m not even going to focus on that. We have so much to look forward to in the meantime, and do you know what if it did happen at least we would of had the best winter spell in the last 4 years. But I’m greedy after all these years and would really appreciate a blizzard at the end of the week.

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Posted
  • Location: Linford, Essex
  • Location: Linford, Essex

We'll see what the weather will bring. I'm still confident that the low will correct further south nearer the time. Until then though, we have a weeks worth of fun to get through, so lets enjoy the next few days without worrying about when it's all going to go Pete Tong!

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Posted
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.

If the mods are showing the same thing by Tuesday I will be very surprised ??

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Posted
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow and ice days
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex

I hope Tight Isobar’s OK.

Not a dicky bird from him today.

Hope he hasn’t been banned!

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Posted
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Cold/Snowy Winter! Just SEASONAL!!
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey

I would love to see a proper white out blizzard snow storm on Friday, laying snow for fun at the weekend and then I'd be happy for Spring to begin..... blizzard looking doubtful atm but let's see how things pan out.....!!x

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Posted
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and ice
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
9 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Just seen bbc week a head forecast bbc website possible blizzards end of week and yet more snow next weekend..:yahoo::yahoo::yahoo:

I made a comment this morning about the evolution of Thursdays low, and 12z models have done nothing to sway my mind - the path to bringing in high uppers to the south just does not look feasible. History, experience and a massive pool of extremely cold air over the UK suggests that the lows trajectory will be more on a ENE route and will stay to the south of the UK.

We shall see ;-)

Edited by Speedbird
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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

just fell over  with shock!!! bbc now giving  3 days warning  from the met  office !!!  20  cm  by wednesday!!

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Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London

ECM 12z 168h onwards could be an outlier? Model op's are too progressive bringing the low further north

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Posted
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and ice
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
1 minute ago, yamkin said:

ECM 12z 168h onwards could be an outlier? Model op's are too progressive bringing the low further north

we'll see where it sits on the ensembles, but i think the latter stages are fit for the bin . . . 

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Posted
  • Location: Strood, Medway
  • Location: Strood, Medway
2 minutes ago, tinybill said:

just fell over  with shock!!! bbc now giving  3 days warning  from the met  office !!!  20  cm  by wednesday!!

Is there a link to a video of this forecast or is it just the forecast on News 24 every 30 minutes? 

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
Just now, Hellboy said:

Is there a link to a video of this forecast or is it just the forecast on News 24 every 30 minutes? 

Website bbc..:D

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Posted
  • Location: Great Yarmouth
  • Location: Great Yarmouth
7 minutes ago, tinybill said:

just fell over  with shock!!! bbc now giving  3 days warning  from the met  office !!!  20  cm  by wednesday!!

where? and what for great yarmouth?

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Posted
  • Location: Worlingworth, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: snow - I'm an 80 year old kid at heart!
  • Location: Worlingworth, Suffolk
42 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

Understandably lots of emphasis on this low moving up from France for end of week. 

From Wednesday with a very deep cold pool over us the models will flip with scenario’s... don’t get caught in the rage just yet - it’s 5 days away. Many many changes to come. 

Here is a pic of my garden in 2009 when I lived in St Albans, Hertfordshire when the charts & TV we’re predicting streamers and the heavy snow to go London southwards. 

I woke up to 7 inches, fear not... everybody in this region is at risk of deep snow Tuesday/Wednesday 

12F25D6B-F50B-4821-B927-41F037528E14.jpeg

Nice snow from St. Albans, Ben!  I was born there and can remember the 1947 snow (just!) - it went over the tops of my wellies so I wasn't allowed to go out in it to play!!

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
15 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

Yes, enjoy the snow in the next few days, guys.. it's looking more likely to be over by next Friday.

They don't make cold spells like they used to:rolleyes:

i wouldn't worry too much yet, all the models have a tendency to blow up LP systems at longer range, even the ECM. whilst it is possible, its more likely to take the weaker option, which (in this case) is southwards of the current modelling track. anyway, even if it still brings less cold conditions, it would probably only be temporary. then back to snow.

anyway, thats nearly a week away. it will change. in the meantime, we could see snow not seen in our region for at least 5 years.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
18 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Just seen bbc week a head forecast bbc website possible blizzards end of week and yet more snow next weekend..:yahoo::yahoo::yahoo:

You keep kidding yourself that :)...as said that was based on yesterdays outputs, not today's.

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
4 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

You keep kidding yourself that :)...as said that was based on yesterdays outputs, not today's.

No the forecast was updated at 17.56 this evening new dater..:D

Edited by abbie123
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Posted
  • Location: Herts
  • Location: Herts

I also caught the BBC forecast after the news on BBC One and Thomas did talk of 20cm+ in places and heavy snow fairly widespread. He said that the biggest risk comes Tuesday and Wednesday with widespread snow showers.

However, it wasn't very detailed and seemed like they were trying to be as vague as possible. 

 

Edited by saint
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