SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

[CK1981]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Thats over the downs -maybe 4-6 lower down in the sweet spot & 2-4 ish further west

although its a bit academic ATM

I still think we’ll see more organised shower activity moving east to west, rather than the usual streamers.

[turkishfella]

It looks like this LP will start to heat up our weather on Friday, so we will get all those precipitations as rain again  do you guys think this could change?

[Flaked Queen]

Just now, turkishfella said:

It looks like this LP will start to heat up our weather on Friday, so we will get all those precipitations as rain again  do you guys think this could change?

That’s next week .... cold is upon us let’s see what we get from that and enjoy the ride ,before we give everyone a headache of next weeks cold / precipitation 

[Radiating Dendrite]

Just now, turkishfella said:

It looks like this LP will start to heat up our weather on Friday, so we will get all those precipitations as rain again  do you guys think this could change?

I'm just concentrating on Monday - Wednesday. Tbh it is not going to last forever, so long as we get some good snow. 

I'd be disappointed with anything less than 6 inches in my location. We got 10 inches in 2009 and 2010.

[Gowon]

2 minutes ago, turkishfella said:

It looks like this LP will start to heat up our weather on Friday, so we will get all those precipitations as rain again  do you guys think this could change?

It's a developing situation.. It could go either way still

[loz]

No snow showing for East Grinstead until next Friday??

[kold weather]

14 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

I still think we’ll see more organised shower activity moving east to west, rather than the usual streamers.

I think there is probably a fair chance at both, the streamers will probably be around most of the time in some form or other, though obviously they will shift and wax and wane.But also there is a chance at larger clumps of showers coming through, especially on wednesday when we have our really impressive cold depth aloft.

Loz, those apps are terrible, ignore them they are going to be made to look very silly this week I suspect.

Edited February 24, 2018 by kold weather

[CK1981]

5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I think there is probably a fair chance at both, the streamers will probably be around most of the time in some form or other, though obviously they will shift and wax and wane.But also there is a chance at larger clumps of showers coming through, especially on wednesday when we have our really impressive cold depth aloft.

Loz, those apps are terrible, ignore them they are going to be made to look very silly this week I suspect.

Totally agree, the streamers will be there, but not exclusively so.

With an unstable and bitterly cold flow, disturbances will crop up at short notice, which gives me hope in the west of the region.

Don’t get me started on those bloody apps ?

[shotski]

15 minutes ago, turkishfella said:

It looks like this LP will start to heat up our weather on Friday, so we will get all those precipitations as rain again  do you guys think this could change?

Latest run it looks like a snow machine to me. This would put us on Red alert but too far out to be confident. 

[lawrenk]

10 minutes ago, turkishfella said:

It looks like this LP will start to heat up our weather on Friday, so we will get all those precipitations as rain again  do you guys think this could change?

Based on the MO update in the last hour they seem to be discounting the low pushing too far north and bringing milder conditions.

If anything, I’m reading into it they think there’s more of a risk it staying south as the cold looks locked in for a long time by the sound of it.

Honestly, those updates must be near as good as it gets for us.

[Coopsy]

My guts telling me Fridays storm is going to be something special. I’ve always liked channel lows for us. Monday-Wednesday is first. Bring it all on. The showers mon to fri will be heavy for some lighter for others. I think everyone will see a fair few of them. Someone’s gonna hit the jackpot. ?great times. I’m already working from home Tuesday and Wednesday just in case lol 

[Speedbird]

4 minutes ago, shotski said:

Latest run it looks like a snow machine to me. This would put us on Red alert but too far out to be confident. 

that looks like a fantastic chart . . . nothing marginal there, uppers are fine, nothing but snow for southern UK - and lots of it !!

[CK1981]

4 minutes ago, lawrenk said:

Based on the MO update in the last hour they seem to be discounting the low pushing too far north and bringing milder conditions.

If anything, I’m reading into it they think there’s more of a risk it staying south as the cold looks locked in for a long time by the sound of it.

Honestly, those updates must be near as good as it gets for us.

They will be using MOGREPS which I’ll take over the overly progressive GFS.

I’m going to stick my neck out here. That low will definitely not make it that far north and will instead take a more west to east track through France, keeping us in the colder uppers.

The GFS is always over progressive in these situations, and with the cold block in place, most certainly wrong!

[Rinse The Raindrops]

So if the front pushes up from France, after a few days of the wrong type of snow we could end up with the right kind of snow it's a win win!

[snowray]

7 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

They will be using MOGREPS which I’ll take over the overly progressive GFS.

I’m going to stick my neck out here. That low will definitely not make it that far north and will instead take a more west to east track through France, keeping us in the colder uppers.

The GFS is always over progressive in these situations, and with the cold block in place, most certainly wrong!

Don't like the look of that, UKMO T144.

[Speedbird]

6 minutes ago, Rinse The Raindrops said:

So if the front pushes up from France, after a few days of the wrong type of snow we could end up with the right kind of snow it's a win win!

it's not really 'pushing up' from France . . . it's moving in a ENE direction - the colder air over the UK and GFS's usual overplaying of such features should result in it staying south of the UK and enabling us to experience heavy snow/blizzards this side of the Channel

[CK1981]

1 minute ago, snowray said:

Don't like the look of that, UKMO T144.

I don’t buy that either, far too progressive.

I could be totally wrong here, but everything will be modelled south in the coming days.

[Speedbird]

Just now, CK1981 said:

I don’t buy that either, far too progressive.

I could be totally wrong here, but everything will be modelled south in the coming days.

past experience says you've made the right call . . .

[SHM040519]

Flying to Amsterdam next Saturday for the day from Heathrow...hopefully can fly?

[CK1981]

Just now, Ben Capee McInnes said:

Flying to Amsterdam next Saturday for the day from Heathrow...hopefully can fly?

I hope you have a flexible ticket! 

[SHM040519]

Just now, CK1981 said:

I hope you have a flexible ticket! 

I have taken insurance out that specifically includes extreme weather! 

[kold weather]

To be fair the models are all pretty close to where they locate the low pressure. Still scope for a shift but the ballpark looks realistic to me. What it means is a highly marginal set-up, increasingly so the further east you go of the center of the low.

Frankly, too early to say on this one, but even if the 12z came off you'd still get an interesting set-up, freezing rain, sleet, snow and normal rain, a total winter storm! However still time for movement and even slight adjustments would make a difference here.

[CK1981]

2 minutes ago, Speedbird said:

past experience says you've made the right call . . .

Totally!

I think the low will pass just south of the Channel Islands and through the Cherbourg peninsular, which would be great for snow in our region. We don’t, however, want it to go too far south as it would end up dry here.

[CK1981]

1 minute ago, Ben Capee McInnes said:

I have taken insurance out that specifically includes extreme weather! 

Good shout!

[Southender]

For those in my locale and further down the tracks ??❄️

Choo choo all aboard the Thames Streamer train ? 

 

Edited February 24, 2018 by Southender