SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

[Flaked Queen]

1 minute ago, lassie23 said:

yes i noticed how warm the sun was too, almost mankini wearing warmth

That’s a different thread lass ( members show yourself ) 

[shotski]

12 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

yes i noticed how warm the sun was too, almost mankini wearing warmth

I feel quite ill ? 

Edited February 24, 2018 by shotski

[CK1981]

6 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

Thanks for that was curious about the uppers here in Surrey we have managed a high of 4.5c do-4c it really feels cold in the wind

In a south westerly flow uppers of around 0c would yield maximum temperatures of approximately 11c. The continental feed makes all the difference today to the ‘norm’.

Edited February 24, 2018 by CK1981

[danm]

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, danm said:

Definitely slightly milder today than yesterday. Latest BBC forecast showing highs of 0c in Norwich tomorrow and 4c in London. Obviously the colder air will reach Norwich first and spread west, so I expect that high of 4c in London will be achieved early and then the temperature will be on the way down in the afternoon. 

Could be quite a rapid fall away on Sunday evening before the showers come in as we to introduce those ever colder 850hps temps during the afternoon.

Maxes on monday will depend on what sort of shower activity there is, if its constant then probably -1C, if not then probably 1-2C realistic for the peak temp. Note that the GFS suggests this as well.

[snowray]

7 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Maybe the would be passengers are waiting for a lift but the vehicle gets stranded so the would be passengers waiting, get stranded too, leaving a stranded vehicle and passengers who didn't actual get a chance to be stranded vehicle passengers.

My worry is passengers getting stranded inside their cars and the cars getting buried in drifts, this happened a few years back I think in Romania. They were dug out like a week or something later frozen! 

[shotski]

Good old Ian, what mild sector. 

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, danm said:

I think its almost certain the models will underdo the convection, they nearly always do in these set-ups.

Higher resolution models will do better but even they will probably struggle in this set-up, especially with streamers.

[Big Snow]

5 minutes ago, danm said:

Wow, that's quite something actually - Ian Fergusson stating a 'medium risk' of something akin to Feb 1991. Now that would be interesting!

[Tom Quintavalle]

Just recently heard Tomas Schaf, doing the 12.55 forecast on Radio 4. First of the snow showers, arriving in the east on Monday, expecting a depth of around 4 inches by the end of Tuesday, in favoured locations, and as much as 8 inches, in the same locations, by the end of Weds. Didn't state exactly where but that's very difficult to predict.

I became a member of this forum, in Jan 2005.Some of you may remember me as, TomSE20. I lived in Anerley, right in the north west corner of the borough of Bromley, again in, Thames Streamer, territory. I remember, there was a lot of discussion, at the time, that we wouldn't be seeing northern blocking again, due to global warming, from the likes of Ian Brown, bless him!!

Within a few weeks, we saw a complete turn around, in the synoptic patterns and started to see some amazing model runs, with a plethora, of northern blocking. In that spell, I recorded 13 consecutive days of snowfall, albeit, mostly in flurry form ,but including 2 T/S  events, remarkable!!

The chart below, depicts the synoptic situation, halfway through a T/S event. Ground temps were above normal, after a mild Winter, thus far and the source region, Russia, had had a mild  Winter, to date. I'm pretty sure, there was no extensive snow cover, across northern Europe, either.

25th FEB. 2005

850s 25th FEB. 2005

As you can see 850s, no great shakes really, nothing like we're predicted to get this week. So if and when, we do get snow, settling and marginality, shouldn't be a problem.

Just heard News24, use the term, "Beast from the East", for the umpteenth time. Now I wonder, where they have got that from? 

Regards,

Tom. 

 

 

 

 

[audiotech]

An early taste of the showers to come for the UK with Germany radar showing lots of snow showers packing into northern parts currently. Travelling well inland too.

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/radar/germany.html

[SMU]

@TomSE12

Shooters hill blur !

[Ben Blizzard]

Sorry if this is a stupid question, but is the Aperge model a High Res. model?  Snow showers looking very thin on the ground as far as the end of Tuesday; I was under the impression that High Res. models were better at picking up shower activity as a result of convection? I'm still VERY new to all of this, so please forgive me if I'm talking utter rubbish!  

Excited for this week though!  

Edited February 24, 2018 by Ben Blizzard

[snowray]

22 minutes ago, danm said:

Got plenty of snow from that in NE London, perhaps not as much in NW.

Yes east side of London did ok, it was NW of London that missed out. 

This was the rough direction of the streamer that set up, it was a good one for so early in Winter.

[kold weather]

6 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Just recently heard Tomas Schaf, doing the 12.55 forecast on Radio 4. First of the snow showers, arriving in the east on Monday, expecting a depth of around 4 inches by the end of Tuesday, in favoured locations, and as much as 8 inches, in the same locations, by the end of Weds. Didn't state exactly where but that's very difficult to predict.

I became a member of this forum, in Jan 2005.Some of you may remember me as, TomSE20. I lived in Anerley, right in the north west corner of the borough of Bromley, again in, Thames Streamer, territory. I remember, there was a lot of discussion, at the time, that we wouldn't be seeing northern blocking again, due to global warming, from the likes of Ian Brown, bless him!!

Within a few weeks, we saw a complete turn around, in the synoptic patterns and started to see some amazing model runs, with a plethora, of northern blocking. In that spell, I recorded 13 consecutive days of snowfall, albeit, mostly in flurry form ,but including 2 T/S  events, remarkable

I remember both thundersnow events well, both streamers dumped a couple of inches locally and probably saved what was a locally somewhat lackluster cold spell given the cracking synoptics.

I think a bullseye target of 18 inches by Thursday 12z would be where I'm at at the moment. Probablya fairly sharp fall away from the prime locations but given the length and depth of cold, will be plenty to go around still.

[CK1981]

Just now, Ben Blizzard said:

Sorry if this is a stupid question, but is the Aperge model a High Res. model?  Snow showers looking very thin on the ground as far as the end of Tuesday; I was under the impression that High Res. models were better at picking up shower activity as a result of convection? I'm still VERY new to all of this, so please forgive me if I'm talking utter dog biscuits  

Excited for this week though!  

Yes it is a high res model, but will underestimate streamers at this stage. Surprises can crop up within 6 hours, so expect further developments.

[Tom Quintavalle]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

@TomSE12

Shooters hill blur !

Steve, I don't have you or Kold Weather, upwind of me, what am I to do? It's really selfish of you 2, to move!!

I relied on your reports , of snow falling.

I'll just have to look out, for the orange glow!!

Regards,

Tom.

 

[SMU]

Just now, TomSE12 said:

Steve, I don't have you or Kold Weather, upwind of me, what am I to do? It's really selfish of you 2, to move!!

I relied on your reports , of snow falling.

I'll just have to look out, for the orange glow!!

Regards,

Tom.

 

dont worry we will crank up some radar images 

[fatyido]

Is my weather station correct ? It's showing 8c in the shade ?

Wasnt expecting that today ?

[kold weather]

7 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

Yes it is a high res model, but will underestimate streamers at this stage. Surprises can crop up within 6 hours, so expect further developments.

Its currently underestimating the precip heading into N.Germany from the Baltic (right disrtrubtion, but not enough) probably will be a trend that will continue into the north sea:

https://m.accuweather.com/en/de/berlin/10178/weather-radar/178087

ps, on the radar, look at Gdansk, that area is topgraphically very similar to the SE and the estuary area, that should give you a good indication of what is to come!

 

Edited February 24, 2018 by kold weather

[SMU]

10 minutes ago, snowray said:

Yes east side of London did ok, it was NW of London that missed out. 

This was the rough direction of the streamer that set up, it was a good one for so early in Winter.

Yep slap bang in the middle of that

Target is north of 10 inches -

The only frustration I have ( all be slight ) is we have seemingly lost a day of Easterlies to be replaced by SEasterlies- but cannot grumble share the wealth !!!!!!- The SE flow can still deliver with the peak -16c air arriving in the SE flow...

S

Edited February 24, 2018 by Steve Murr

[kold weather]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

 

The only frustration I have ( all be slight ) is we have seemingly lost a day of Easterlies to be replaced by SEasterlies- but cannot grumble - The SE can still deliver with the peak -16c air arriving in the SE flow...

S

Actually we only bend ESE briefly on Wednesday at the steering levels that matter (Wednesday morning) the steering level winds bend back easterly pretty rapidly through to about 15z on Thursday by which time frontal cloud may start to limit instablity anyway.

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Actually we only bend ESE briefly on Wednesday at the steering levels that matter (Wednesday morning) the steering level winds bend back easterly pretty rapidly through to about 15z on Thursday by which time frontal cloud may start to limit instablity anyway.

The frontal cloud could well be a pain if this pans out as many expect with the front stalling across n France. No frontal precip and south of lincs there could be a lack of convective snow due to that shield 

[Tom Jarvis]

13 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yep slap bang in the middle of that

Target is north of 10 inches -

The only frustration I have ( all be slight ) is we have seemingly lost a day of Easterlies to be replaced by SEasterlies- but cannot grumble share the wealth !!!!!!- The SE flow can still deliver with the peak -16c air arriving in the SE flow...

S

Don’t mind it moveing se as that means my location can do good as well. Just hope there is enough water between Dover and the French coast to produce though??

Edited February 24, 2018 by Tom Jarvis

[SMU]

5 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:

Don’t mind it moveing was as that means my location can do good as well. Just there enough water between Dover and the French coast to produce though??

you need ideally >40 miles- but I dont think we get 'that 'SE as @kold weathermentions

Theres not many scenarios on record with deep cold SE flows but I do recall 2010 which went 100 / 110 degrees for a while &  SE london still did well with a Streamer - sort of Folkstone > Ashford > Maidstone allignment !

Edited February 24, 2018 by Steve Murr