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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards


Captain Shortwave

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

I wouldn't fret about the 06z GFS for the end of the week, synoptically possible but I suspect it will sit right at the top end of its ensembles (though who knows!)

Anyway no real surprise regarding the Met office update, 20cms around the thames estuary is highly probable, indeed could see double that in really favoured spots.

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Posted
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and ice
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
24 minutes ago, PLANET THANET said:

I know its only one model but look at the coastal strip around thanet towards folkestone.....0 inches

ignore the white bits around the coast . . . it's just that the coloured pixel squares are missing

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Posted
  • Location: NE London - Walthamstow
  • Location: NE London - Walthamstow

Last couple of days things have changed a few times for us living in North East London.

At first both MetO and Netweather had us under Snow on Monday until Saturday, then Monday, Thursday and Friday and now its Tuesday, Friday (snow/sleet).

Really hoping we get enough to make a big snow man this time round otherwise my kids will be very disappointed, since I have been ramping like a school kid since Thursday!

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Posted
  • Location: Romford, Essex
  • Location: Romford, Essex
5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I wouldn't fret about the 06z GFS for the end of the week, synoptically possible but I suspect it will sit right at the top end of its ensembles (though who knows!)

Anyway no real surprise regarding the Met office update, 20cms around the thames estuary is highly probable, indeed could see double that in really favoured spots.

Hi Kold. Seem to remember you used to live near me in Thurrock? What do you think chances are for your old area and currently mine up in Romford / Brentwood? 

Edited by Roadrunner
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Posted
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine. And storms
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
7 minutes ago, snowking said:

I suspect, as is often the case with the GFS in these situations, that it's far too keen to blow away what is an incredibly dense cold airmass for the time of year in place across the UK.

Generally I tend to have more belief in the ECMWF in such situations as it tends to be the best of a bad bunch in terms of resolving anything cyclonic coming into a blocking situation so will be interesting to monitor this through the week, but I would expect most model runs to bring this feature as far north as the 6z in the next few days before slowly correcting South through the rest of the week. It's a bit unique because usually we are talking about systems disrupting from west to east, but one would assume the same modelling physics apply here.

Anyway regardless of that, looking at modelling for the middle of this week:

ECM1-120.GIF?24-12

We are likely to be in for some very snowy surprises with such a strong flow in conjunction with the intensely cold air in place. The flow by Thursday morning looks a little too SE'ly for us here but through Wednesday with the more direct E'ly flow I suspect we may see some more organised features heading inland which may be pretty poorly modelled - a completely different flow but Jan 2003 springs to mind here in terms of surprise features.

Surprised GFS doesn't show LI of -15 as well :D

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
13 minutes ago, wintermaster said:

Morning All,

I am a complete novice compaered to most of you. How do you think Crawley West Sussex will do over the next few days.

Cheers

hi mate, i'm in horsham, basically anywhere in the region could get anywhere from a couple of inches to a couple of feet. if we get a thames streamer over us (which is fairly likely) then expect deep snow...

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Posted
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
12 minutes ago, wintermaster said:

Morning All,

I am a complete novice compaered to most of you. How do you think Crawley West Sussex will do over the next few days.

Cheers

Well I’m here in Horley/Gatwick, which isn’t the best topographically, tending to be shielded somewhat by the South Downs. I’m ‘expecting’ between 2-5cms by Weds here in Horley, using local knowledge as a guide, but with areas south and east of here and not far away (somewhere like Uckfield for example) to fare a bit better, and deeper into East Sussex better still. The high risk potential frontal event progged for Friday better for here.  

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
3 minutes ago, Roadrunner said:

Hi Kold. Seem to remember you used to live near me in Thurrock? What do you think chances are for your old area and currently mine up in Romford / Brentwood? 

Yep your right I did. I think it will get hammered with snow, even moderate streamers have given several inches. the closer to the Esturary the better, I'd say for example somewhere like Lakeside shopping center could be looking at a foot, further NE you go totals will decrease but I still think its going to give very good totals to anywhere within 20 miles of the Thames, especally on the southern side.

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Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snowy Weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.

These two charts below, depict,, the 850 temp situation, close enough to the time of 2 thundersnow events,

25th DEC.1970

archives-1970-12-25-0-1.png

Thames Streamer event, which gave 4 inches of snow and a huge crack of thunder overnight, when I lived in Bromley, N.W.Kent. More snow showers, during the day, made it one of the few, truly white Xmases, I've witnessed, with snow falling on the day itself.

2nd FEB.2009

archives-2009-2-2-0-1.png

Fantastic Thames Streamer event, except for poor Paul Shermam, in Southend. Lived here, in Lee, London SE12 at the time. Stayed up most of the night, radar watching. Heard thunder, with Steve M., when Steve lived in Bexleyheath. Gave between 4 and 6 inches, here in Lee and Bromley but unusually more, further WSW, Croydon where I worked, had nigh on 8 inches, in the town centre and places like Guildford, closing in on a foot. A very unusual T/S event and superbly analysed by Paul S., at the time.

So you can see, the temperature differential, is expected to be more, in the early part of next week. It doesn't guarantee, thundersnow, of course, but the potential, is certainly there.

Regards,

Tom.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
8 minutes ago, snowking said:

I suspect, as is often the case with the GFS in these situations, that it's far too keen to blow away what is an incredibly dense cold airmass for the time of year in place across the UK.

Generally I tend to have more belief in the ECMWF in such situations as it tends to be the best of a bad bunch in terms of resolving anything cyclonic coming into a blocking situation so will be interesting to monitor this through the week, but I would expect most model runs to bring this feature as far north as the 6z in the next few days before slowly correcting South through the rest of the week. It's a bit unique because usually we are talking about systems disrupting from west to east, but one would assume the same modelling physics apply here.

Anyway regardless of that, looking at modelling for the middle of this week:

ECM1-120.GIF?24-12

We are likely to be in for some very snowy surprises with such a strong flow in conjunction with the intensely cold air in place. The flow by Thursday morning looks a little too SE'ly for us here but through Wednesday with the more direct E'ly flow I suspect we may see some more organised features heading inland which may be pretty poorly modelled - a completely different flow but Jan 2003 springs to mind here in terms of surprise features.

Yes, I been thinking along on the same lines that the low keeps just south of the UK on Friday, the ensemble MSLP mean supports this and EC has kept it south and filled the low so far. GFS does seem to have an in built bias at removing entrenched cold too easily.

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Posted
  • Location: Singleton, Kent
  • Location: Singleton, Kent

Even the good old weather Channel app has picked up on convective activity ? “potential for significant accumulation” on Tue - never read that on there before!

CE43B22B-63BB-4B48-A17A-C52AFAD942A9.png

Edited by seb
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Posted
  • Location: Herts
  • Location: Herts
11 minutes ago, Planet Stow said:

Last couple of days things have changed a few times for us living in North East London.

At first both MetO and Netweather had us under Snow on Monday until Saturday, then Monday, Thursday and Friday and now its Tuesday, Friday (snow/sleet).

Really hoping we get enough to make a big snow man this time round otherwise my kids will be very disappointed, since I have been ramping like a school kid since Thursday!

Slight issue, it'll be so cold that the snow may well be too powdery to actually build snow men with! 

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Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
28 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Indeed, if the flow is near perfect anyone in and around the Thames Valley would do very well I think. The mouth of the estery is around 6-7 c with - 15 air that creates a temperature difference of 21 degrees and in the factor of the sun add all of sudden you have an environment that favours some pretty mega snow showers 

Not to mention elsewhere in the region too very encouraging stuff in the right direction for some pretty nice totals 

I totally agree, Surrey!

A few years back we did very well here in east Berkshire from a Thames streamer, with several inches falling in a short space of time.

This goes to show, it’s not necessarily an east only event.

Edited by CK1981
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Posted
  • Location: Attleborough Norfolk,
  • Weather Preferences: Warmth, sun, blue sky, and the odd bit of snow on a weekend would do nicely
  • Location: Attleborough Norfolk,

Us brits are so fickle spotted a couple of comments ending this cold spell before it’s even begun lol, 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Wednesday is looking exceptional at the moment, massive lapse rates and ever lowering pressure combined with the wind shifting from E to briefly a touch south of east and back to ENE means nearly everyone will have skin in the game on Wednesday. Going real unlucky if you don't get at least one decent fall of snow in this cold spell, favoured locations are going to get buried for sure.

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Yh also not buying the GFS Solution for Friday. Have a feeling the Low will be around 50-100 miles south of the Uk probably near the Brest peninsula and keep the SE in strong North Easterlies. If thats the case I would not expect too much snow North of the M4. Now thats rare in itself saying that. Does have the look of a classic South Central and SW event though.

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Posted
  • Location: Singleton, Kent
  • Location: Singleton, Kent

And now AccuWeather as well. All falling into place ?

3-6cm Monday daytime, locally higher amounts in heavier snow bands.

 

19C11A5E-9245-47AD-92D4-949DD6C8B48A.png

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Posted
  • Location: Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Anything even slightly exciting & less Vanilla.
  • Location: Kent

Set up looks great generally.  I hope the wind veers around a bit though. Would be nice to see the wind forecast to veer NE/NNE for a little while from my point of view. 

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Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
8 minutes ago, slater said:

Us brits are so fickle spotted a couple of comments ending this cold spell before it’s even begun lol, 

It’s not us doing that, it’s the GFS ?

I don’t think it’s anywhere near verifying though, and expect corrections south over the next few runs.

That would really bury this region in snow.....fingers crossed!

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Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
7 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Yh also not buying the GFS Solution for Friday. Have a feeling the Low will be around 50-100 miles south of the Uk probably near the Brest peninsula and keep the SE in strong North Easterlies. If thats the case I would not expect too much snow North of the M4. Now thats rare in itself saying that. Does have the look of a classic South Central and SW event though.

GFS 6z from 126h seems too progressive in bringing in milder air. I can see another outlier again!!

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Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
4 minutes ago, yamkin said:

GFS 6z from 126h seems too progressive in bringing in milder air. I can see another outlier again!!

Will be interesting to see where it sits on the GEFS. I’m guessing near the top of the range again. The operationals keep doing this, only to correct and fall in line over time.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds (Roundhay) 135m
  • Location: Leeds (Roundhay) 135m
12 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Wednesday is looking exceptional at the moment, massive lapse rates and ever lowering pressure combined with the wind shifting from E to briefly a touch south of east and back to ENE means nearly everyone will have skin in the game on Wednesday. Going real unlucky if you don't get at least one decent fall of snow in this cold spell, favoured locations are going to get buried for sure.

Indeed, not being local one assumes ESE or E is best for places like Harrow / Wembley?

Wrt Friday, the mean GFS ensembles push the cold air further north, albeit slightly. I would still favour the ECM solution, with any precipitation potentially missing much of the SE.

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Posted
  • Location: Cricklewood, north London
  • Location: Cricklewood, north London
1 minute ago, Mark Bayley said:

Indeed, not being local one assumes ESE or E is best for places like Harrow / Wembley?

Wrt Friday, the mean GFS ensembles push the cold air further north, albeit slightly. I would still favour the ECM solution, with any precipitation potentially missing much of the SE.

Yep, for your and my locations we want the winds ESE. But I'm sure we'll see something regardless.

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Snow and more Snow!
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

This week is shaping up to be incredible. Can’t wait to see the model runs tonight into tomorrow. I’m hoping for our first flurries Sunday night.

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