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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards


Captain Shortwave

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Posted
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine. And storms
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
11 minutes ago, yamkin said:

@Nikkib74 Thanks for your comments. I will be releasing very interesting info soon :cold::yahoo:

Don't tell me you won that £77m? :angry::rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Cold/Snowy Winter! Just SEASONAL!!
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey

Meto forecast is now showing me having less snow on Tues but now some on Wed and a lot more on Friday!!! Leaves me a bit confused as the latest news from models seem to show that we're at risk of this sw low coming too far north and dragging up the milder air....??!!! Oh this week is going to be a turbulent one!!!x

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Posted
  • Location: ramsgate 42m asl
  • Location: ramsgate 42m asl

I see on the met warnings that deal to folkestone is not included on mondays warnings but they join in the fun on tuesday and wednesday, lets hope everyone has a share as with what is being forecast there should be enough to spread around :cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snowy Weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
7 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Met Office ramp! Interesting warnings, expect another review of them tomorrow 

Hi Surrey,

Yes, just read the MO warning and chief forecaster, suggesting showers may begin to develop, tomorrow evening, over our area and develop more widely, through the early part of the week. He even mentions possibility of lightning, not surprising given the temp. differential between upper air and sea/estuary  surface temps, forecast to be 20c >, in the early part of the week.

Regards,

Tom. 

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
3 minutes ago, weathergeek said:

Meto forecast is now showing me having less snow on Tues but now some on Wed and a lot more on Friday!!! Leaves me a bit confused as the latest news from models seem to show that we're at risk of this sw low coming too far north and dragging up the milder air....??!!! Oh this week is going to be a turbulent one!!!x

don't take any notice of the app symbols. they are produced from raw model data and have no human input and are just a snapshot in time of model data.  they change every hour. read the written forecasts for best info and besides, as others have pointed out, they've just increased the warning area to cover most of the country! also, its gone up a notch on the matrix system. any further increase takes it into amber warning.

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Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London

Croydon Borough Council held an urgent meeting yesterday to go over the final preparations regarding the coming Big Freeze.

Gritters for A & B routes and priority footways have been mobilised.

Road gritters were in operation last night undertaking precautionary treatment to priority routes - They will be out again tonight.

Pretreating priority footway routes will commence tomorrow.

Due to the severity of the Big Freeze, the MetO are expected to upgrade their current YELLOW Weather Warning(s) to AMBER later today/tomorrow.

Please be advised the MetO's current YELLOW Weather Warning(s) will be upgraded first - today!

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

06z GFS showing totals pile up across the SE by Thursday, especially coastal E Anglia and SW across SE London, N/W Kent, Sussex

gfs_6hr_snow_acc_uk2_21.thumb.png.1ea468f72984590dcf92c3cd500c2ed6.png

But the 06z GFS still wants to end the deep cold on Friday after a spell of heavy snow beforehand, really knife edge to where the low goes now

GFSOPEU06_144_2.thumb.png.b2b6789e63eb245ea3b5693dab71bde0.png

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Posted
  • Location: ramsgate 42m asl
  • Location: ramsgate 42m asl
3 minutes ago, Nick F said:

06z GFS showing totals pile up across the SE by Thursday, especially coastal E Anglia and SW across SE London, N/W Kent, Sussex

gfs_6hr_snow_acc_uk2_21.thumb.png.1ea468f72984590dcf92c3cd500c2ed6.png

But the 06z GFS still wants to end the deep cold on Friday after a spell of heavy snow beforehand, really knife edge to where the low goes now

GFSOPEU06_144_2.thumb.png.b2b6789e63eb245ea3b5693dab71bde0.png

I know its only one model but look at the coastal strip around thanet towards folkestone.....0 inches

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Posted
  • Location: Ely, Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Ely, Cambridgeshire
4 minutes ago, Nick F said:

06z GFS showing totals pile up across the SE by Thursday, especially coastal E Anglia and SW across SE London, N/W Kent, Sussex

gfs_6hr_snow_acc_uk2_21.thumb.png.1ea468f72984590dcf92c3cd500c2ed6.png

But the 06z GFS still wants to end the deep cold on Friday after a spell of heavy snow beforehand, really knife edge to where the low goes now

GFSOPEU06_144_2.thumb.png.b2b6789e63eb245ea3b5693dab71bde0.png

It certainly shows ingredients for big trouble later next week, major dump on the horizon if the gfs keeps that low around our shores come Friday. GFS seems keen to keep it keep it in the mix where as ECM not so much. Just hope that low centre doesn’t keep that trend of moving further west therefore keeping the SE on the mild end of its tail 

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Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
6 minutes ago, Nick F said:

06z GFS showing totals pile up across the SE by Thursday, especially coastal E Anglia and SW across SE London, N/W Kent, Sussex

gfs_6hr_snow_acc_uk2_21.thumb.png.1ea468f72984590dcf92c3cd500c2ed6.png

But the 06z GFS still wants to end the deep cold on Friday after a spell of heavy snow beforehand, really knife edge to where the low goes now

GFSOPEU06_144_2.thumb.png.b2b6789e63eb245ea3b5693dab71bde0.png

Possibility that the GFS output for Friday is an Outlier 

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Posted
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
9 minutes ago, Nick F said:

06z GFS showing totals pile up across the SE by Thursday, especially coastal E Anglia and SW across SE London, N/W Kent, Sussex

gfs_6hr_snow_acc_uk2_21.thumb.png.1ea468f72984590dcf92c3cd500c2ed6.png

But the 06z GFS still wants to end the deep cold on Friday after a spell of heavy snow beforehand, really knife edge to where the low goes now

GFSOPEU06_144_2.thumb.png.b2b6789e63eb245ea3b5693dab71bde0.png

West Sussex not to be confused with East Sussex, the latter being much more prone here. 

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16 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Hi Surrey,

Yes, just read the MO warning and chief forecaster, suggesting showers may begin to develop, tomorrow evening, over our area and develop more widely, through the early part of the week. He even mentions possibility of lightning, not surprising given the temp. differential between upper air and sea/estuary  surface temps, forecast to be 20c >, in the early part of the week.

Regards,

Tom. 

Indeed, if the flow is near perfect anyone in and around the Thames Valley would do very well I think. The mouth of the estery is around 6-7 c with - 15 air that creates a temperature difference of 21 degrees and in the factor of the sun add all of sudden you have an environment that favours some pretty mega snow showers 

Not to mention elsewhere in the region too very encouraging stuff in the right direction for some pretty nice totals 

Edited by Surrey
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Posted
  • Location: Wyck Nr Alton- Hants
  • Location: Wyck Nr Alton- Hants

Hmm looks like snow to rain next weekend for SE viewing 6z and of course told friends and family about the possible mega dumping last night - I never learn

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Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire

GFS still bullish on that low bringing milder uppers into the mix on Friday. I still think it’s being far too progressive (as the GFS often is), but if it does verify, there will be a lot of unhappy people in this region....me included!

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Posted
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives

Mogreps-UK just within range of Monday afternoon (54 hrs) 

Itseems to have high resolution ensemble forecasting of convective activity so should have a good handle on what's to come. 

This would seem to tie in with Yamkin comment re upgrade to Amber warning as Met Office will be more certain of disruption 

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Posted
  • Location: Ashford, Kent.
  • Location: Ashford, Kent.

I see Wednesday has now been given a Yellow warning for heavy snow. Reading through the outlook it looking like it could stay cold up until at least the 24th!

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Posted
  • Location: Crawley West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Crawley West Sussex

Morning All,

I am a complete novice compaered to most of you. How do you think Crawley West Sussex will do over the next few days.

Cheers

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Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
19 minutes ago, Nick F said:

 

But the 06z GFS still wants to end the deep cold on Friday after a spell of heavy snow beforehand, really knife edge to where the low goes now

GFSOPEU06_144_2.thumb.png.b2b6789e63eb245ea3b5693dab71bde0.png

I suspect, as is often the case with the GFS in these situations, that it's far too keen to blow away what is an incredibly dense cold airmass for the time of year in place across the UK.

Generally I tend to have more belief in the ECMWF in such situations as it tends to be the best of a bad bunch in terms of resolving anything cyclonic coming into a blocking situation so will be interesting to monitor this through the week, but I would expect most model runs to bring this feature as far north as the 6z in the next few days before slowly correcting South through the rest of the week. It's a bit unique because usually we are talking about systems disrupting from west to east, but one would assume the same modelling physics apply here.

Anyway regardless of that, looking at modelling for the middle of this week:

ECM1-120.GIF?24-12

We are likely to be in for some very snowy surprises with such a strong flow in conjunction with the intensely cold air in place. The flow by Thursday morning looks a little too SE'ly for us here but through Wednesday with the more direct E'ly flow I suspect we may see some more organised features heading inland which may be pretty poorly modelled - a completely different flow but Jan 2003 springs to mind here in terms of surprise features.

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