SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

[Lowestoft Weather]

I live in Lowestoft a hundred meters or so from the sea, the most easterly point in the UK and it is feeling absolutely perishing in the fresh east winds. With the severe cold temperature's not here yet I dread to think how it's going to feel here come mid-week with minus maximum temperature's, prolonged heavy snow and a strong east wind. 

There's going to be some amazing photo's from this area come middle of next week. 

I also expect the Broads to freeze over by Friday next week.

BV

[alexaris1985]

Good evening all! Isnt it a bit weird that Chris Fawkes stopped updating his Twitter for the last few days? 

[Ellozee]

Pretty chilly in Deal. It's getting closer..

[Matty88]

1 hour ago, bobbydog said:

GFS snow arriving for us on monday morning-

continuing through tuesday-

then on thursday night, it turns us into an antarctic wilderness...

if thats correct, then the Met Office are vastly underplaying it for now...

Be careful those charts are very indicative/vague of where precip ‘could’ fall - actual precipitation on the day will be more localised/scattered. They aren’t indicative of solid precipitation where precipitation is in the form of showers. 

Edited February 23, 2018 by Matty88

[turkishfella]

2 hours ago, SLEETY said:

Looks like chance of blizzards in our region end of next week,looking at the latest runs

hopefully mate

[kold weather]

WRF going for about an inch nearly everywhere in the region but 13:00 on Tuesday. Favoured spits between 10-15cms...with days of the flow left!

[shotski]

15 minutes ago, alexaris1985 said:

Good evening all! Isnt it a bit weird that Chris Fawkes stopped updating his Twitter for the last few days? 

What’s your thinking ?

[SMU]

ECM 120 is an epic unstable SE flow

streamers almost anywhere - lots of troughy wavey lines

South coast takes a battering-

Also Frame this one to show the kids !

s

Edited February 23, 2018 by Steve Murr

[XLNC]

Beast ready to eat the South of UK. ?

[Number 23]

10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM 120 is an epic unstable SE flow

streamers almost anywhere - lots of troughy wavey lines

South coast takes a battering-

Also Frame this one to show the kids !

s

3

Looks like that could be a better result for this region as a whole in terms of everyone getting in on the action, Steve? Not that it was a bad result to start with!

[SMU]

Just now, Number 23 said:

Looks like that could be a better result for this region as a whole in terms of everyone getting in on the action, Steve? Not that it was a bad result to start with!

Yes - A nice spread of Wind direction

Just waiting for 192 ECM to see where the channel low goes- background AO loading record breaker at 168 !

[beng]

15 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM 120 is an epic unstable SE flow

streamers almost anywhere - lots of troughy wavey lines

South coast takes a battering-

Also Frame this one to show the kids !

s

Will there be enough moisture with a SE flow and shorter sea track?

[Paul Sherman]

In reply to the poster that asked about where streamers affect with what vector wind - I did find the archive but it wont let me link it as its so old and dusty, anyway the following is a guide.

NNE - Places in Jackpot zone would include Coastal Norfolk, Coastal Suffolk and Kent into Sussex east of a line from Whitstable/Faversham through Ashford down to East of Hastings, the Jackpot zone usually is Hawkinge to Lenham.

NE - See above but can also affect places 15-20 miles inland from Coasts of Suffolk, Norfolk, Essex and also push a little further west along the Sussex and Kent Coasts as well. A strong enough Flow can penetrate showers into the Greater London area

ENE - Thames Estuary Streamer. Affects areas from Clacton down to Isle of Sheppey through Maidstone and SE Essex and Thames Corridoor, also affects NE London to a point and crosses the Thames at Dartford into SE London.

ESE - This is an interesting one as it affects most of Kent and the Southern side of the Thames Estuary and places In NW london and Herts do very well.

From Steves chart above from ECM @ 120 showing an ESE Streamer would be very happy if living in Herts, Bucks etc

[fluid dynamic]

17 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM 120 is an epic unstable SE flow

streamers almost anywhere - lots of troughy wavey lines

South coast takes a battering-

Also Frame this one to show the kids !

s

i will show it to my 10 year old daughter. is there one that isn't coloured in .? She likes colouring in

[SMU]

1 minute ago, beng said:

Will there be enough moisture with a SE flow and shorter sea track?

You need 60 miles - for convection ( non trough ) so luckily that looks quite troughy 144

So the SE would dry out eventually before the attack from the SW the next day

192 Feint... heavy snow moves along from the channel runner - ** no marginality **

 

[tinybill]

.http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

what make think the bbc dont  very are doing  they now admitting we got snow coming  but don't dare mention the possible blizzards coming our way at the end of the week

Edited February 23, 2018 by tinybill

[turkishfella]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

You need 60 miles - for convection ( non trough ) so luckily that looks quite troughy 144

So the SE would dry out eventually before the attack from the SW the next day

192 Feint... heavy snow moves along from the channel runner - ** no marginality **

 

so does this mean we will get another snow showers from sw? (I am asking for Brighton)? Charts indicate that it gets milder on March 2nd in SE, or did i get it wrong?

[Laurence Hill]

1 hour ago, Bogman said:

The end of next week is a billion years away at the moment.

Enjoy the ride. What happens will happen. We've plenty of weather to get through before this time next week.

After this evenings ECM, I see what you mean.

Think I will keep my amateurish analyses to myself in future!

[tinybill]

lookeast in a  min  should be a giggle!!!

[SMU]

Still going strong at 216 -

This is probably the best ECM run ever-

[beng]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

You need 60 miles - for convection ( non trough ) so luckily that looks quite troughy 144

So the SE would dry out eventually before the attack from the SW the next day

192 Feint... heavy snow moves along from the channel runner - ** no marginality **

 

Thanks, much appreciated Steve.

[essexweather]

What the hell have they done to BBC Weather these days. Just dreadful.

National forecast at 6.27pm said 'Wintry showers next week' and no mention of the weather warnings in place.

Has the new provider told presenters to dumb down forecasts? No wonder why so many forecasters are jumping ship back to the Met Office.

[Pixel]

5 minutes ago, tinybill said:

.http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

what make think the bbc dont  very are doing  they now admitting we got snow coming  but don't dare mention the possible blizzards coming our way at the end of the week

'ask you soon snow it is very' said a Yoda BBC weather representative "ummm blizzard maybe" (-:

Edited February 23, 2018 by Pixel

[Number 23]

2 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

In reply to the poster that asked about where streamers affect with what vector wind - I did find the archive but it wont let me link it as its so old and dusty, anyway the following is a guide.

NNE - Places in Jackpot zone would include Coastal Norfolk, Coastal Suffolk and Kent into Sussex east of a line from Whitstable/Faversham through Ashford down to East of Hastings, the Jackpot zone usually is Hawkinge to Lenham.

NE - See above but can also affect places 15-20 miles inland from Coasts of Suffolk, Norfolk, Essex and also push a little further west along the Sussex and Kent Coasts as well. A strong enough Flow can penetrate showers into the Greater London area

ENE - Thames Estuary Streamer. Affects areas from Clacton down to Isle of Sheppey through Maidstone and SE Essex and Thames Corridoor, also affects NE London to a point and crosses the Thames at Dartford into SE London.

ESE - This is an interesting one as it affects most of Kent and the Southern side of the Thames Estuary and places In NW london and Herts do very well.

From Steves chart above from ECM @ 120 showing an ESE Streamer would be very happy if living in Herts, Bucks etc

It's a bugger being here in Chelmsford sometimes especially in a NE'ly - watching the showers just fizzle out as they get here!

Think we're OK this time though lol.

[beng]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Still going strong at 216 -

This is probably the best ECM run ever-

Boxing day blizzard of 1927 springs to mind, but longer lasting since that started as rain.