SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

[tomp456]

The last time we saw a mountain load of snow in Worthing was probably back in December 2009, it was the final day of term before Christmas and ended up bunking for the day to build a snowman instead

 

What is the difference between the upcoming cold and 2009? 

I don't think the snow (or at least the amount that fell) was forecast for Worthing... being bang on the coast 

Edited February 23, 2018 by tomp456

[bluearmy]

Bear in mind that the forecasters really aren’t sure how this plays out past Tuesday night and how Wednesday may verify could affect what happens Tuesday night. So with the snow threat starting by Monday morning, they don’t have much of a period they are secure on and convection snowfall is a nightmare to predict in any case. 

[nikki]

Just read a essex live post it's was saying Monday Canvy Island won't get any and Basildon will only get a shower . Would much rather read what's been said on here sounds more positive 

[stodge]

Afternoon all

Living in lowland East London, I'd be surprised if this set up doesn't deliver even for me.

I'm actually astounded by the notion of three Ice days this week (Wednesday to Friday). I haven't seen one since March 11th 2013 so for London to get three in a row would be something highly unusual.

I do agree the unprecedented numbers of January 1987 won't be reached nor Sunday December 19th 2010 (both had maxima of -5) but -1 to -2 in London will mean several degrees lower further out.

Snow amounts ? Well, yes, the nature of showers means some will do well and some won't and I suspect there will be some impatience on here Sunday-Monday if the showers don't widely deliver. For once, marginality won't be an issue - the air is chilled, the ground is also cold.

My current records (ooer) are 7 inches in 2010 and 6.5 inches in February 2009 and the charts I'm seeing suggest 4-5 inches by next Friday (though some claim the charts are considerable underestimates). My concern is the MSLP remains in the mid 1020s there won't be a lot of moisture to squeeze.

As for longevity, still to be resolved I think. It's possible southern England could be the battleground or it might not be and model output has and continues to oscillate between keeping the jet far to the south or bringing the milder air much closer. A difference of 200-300 miles is nothing in hemispheric modelling but it matters a lot to us.

The dream of snow fans will be the blizzard from the Channel LP - could happen of course - but marginality would become an issue if some milder air got into the mix but even at -4 uppers over existing snow cover it should be snow at least initially.

So, will it be cold ? Yes, absolutely. Do I expect snow in my back yard ? Yes, but amounts still up for grabs. How long does it last ? I think at least 7-10 days and that's as far as comfortable with model forecasting. Could last longer - might not.

[Speedbird]

3 minutes ago, nikki said:

Just read a essex live post it's was saying Monday Canvy Island won't get any and Basildon will only get a shower . Would much rather read what's been said on here sounds more positive 

I'm in Southend and am confident that you'll get a good 6 inches

[Flaked Queen]

11 minutes ago, Speedbird said:

I'm in Southend and am confident that you'll get a good 6 inches

Ummm ? 6 inches what makes you so sure ...

[danm]

Delete

Edited February 23, 2018 by danm

[Flaked Queen]

I’m really struggling to see how anyone can say how much snow we MAY get ? Or am I just to into my unicorn wellies to miss something 

[danm]

19 minutes ago, stodge said:

Afternoon all

Living in lowland East London, I'd be surprised if this set up doesn't deliver even for me.

I'm actually astounded by the notion of three Ice days this week (Wednesday to Friday). I haven't seen one since March 11th 2013 so for London to get three in a row would be something highly unusual.

I do agree the unprecedented numbers of January 1987 won't be reached nor Sunday December 19th 2010 (both had maxima of -5) but -1 to -2 in London will mean several degrees lower further out.

Snow amounts ? Well, yes, the nature of showers means some will do well and some won't and I suspect there will be some impatience on here Sunday-Monday if the showers don't widely deliver. For once, marginality won't be an issue - the air is chilled, the ground is also cold.

My current records (ooer) are 7 inches in 2010 and 6.5 inches in February 2009 and the charts I'm seeing suggest 4-5 inches by next Friday (though some claim the charts are considerable underestimates). My concern is the MSLP remains in the mid 1020s there won't be a lot of moisture to squeeze.

As for longevity, still to be resolved I think. It's possible southern England could be the battleground or it might not be and model output has and continues to oscillate between keeping the jet far to the south or bringing the milder air much closer. A difference of 200-300 miles is nothing in hemispheric modelling but it matters a lot to us.

The dream of snow fans will be the blizzard from the Channel LP - could happen of course - but marginality would become an issue if some milder air got into the mix but even at -4 uppers over existing snow cover it should be snow at least initially.

So, will it be cold ? Yes, absolutely. Do I expect snow in my back yard ? Yes, but amounts still up for grabs. How long does it last ? I think at least 7-10 days and that's as far as comfortable with model forecasting. Could last longer - might not.

Are you sure 19th December 2010 had a maxima of -5c in London? The archive for Heathrow that day shows a high of 0.5c

Edited February 23, 2018 by danm

[Neilsouth]

Rural areas cut off? What!

 

[Helvellyn]

Convective activity to begin in earnest on Monday?

In 2010 Essex got hit by multiple streamers - hoping to miss the rush hour chaos this time..

[jayney69]

Kids have just come in from school and said they’ve been told school MAY be closed on Tuesday, weather permitting!

Edited February 23, 2018 by jayney69

[Flaked Queen]

Mobile phones cut off !!!! My god Help !!! I Have have 3 teenagers who have phones glued to their ears !! They will have to actually .... talk to ppl face 2 face  

[Speedbird]

11 minutes ago, Snowflake Queen said:

Ummm ? 6 inches what makes you so sure ...

Southend, and more so Basildon, tend to do really well from a Thames streamer . . . in the event of an E, rather than a NE, then prone areas in S Essex will fair well - and I expect them to over the  next week or so

[Number 23]

Just now, Snowflake Queen said:

I’m really struggling to see how anyone can say how much snow we MAY get ? Or am I just to into my unicorn wellies to miss something 

Well I'm no expert, but depending on the wind direction for convective snow there are always areas which historically do better than others. Around the Thames and the North East tend to do particularly well in these situations, but if you're lined up for a decent streamer, areas further inland can do better than areas near the coast!

Currently, the Met are going for a general max of 15cms for Mon/Tue, so I'd say if you live in a favoured area, that's the least you can expect. For the rest of us, it's a rather fun little crapshoot!

 

[Flaked Queen]

6 minutes ago, Speedbird said:

Southend, and more so Basildon, tend to do really well from a Thames streamer . . . in the event of an E, rather than a NE, then prone areas in S Essex will fair well - and I expect them to over the  next week or so

 

1 minute ago, Number 23 said:

Well I'm no expert, but depending on the wind direction for convective snow there are always areas which historically do better than others. Around the Thames and the North East tend to do particularly well in these situations, but if you're lined up for a decent streamer, areas further inland can do better than areas near the coast!

Currently, the Met are going for a general max of 15cms for Mon/Tue, so I'd say if you live in a favoured area, that's the least you can expect. For the rest of us, it's a rather fun little crapshoot!

 

Ok thanks guys ... I was being genuine in asking as I really find it hard to get where the inches/ ft come from ... I know mainly it’s guess work , until us lovely lot pop out and measure ( and that is part of the fun )  

[warrenb]

Temp falling like a stone here, going to be very very cold tonight

[Speedbird]

4 minutes ago, Snowflake Queen said:

 

Ok thanks guys ... I was being genuine in asking as I really find it hard to get where the inches/ ft come from ... I know mainly it’s guess work , until us lovely lot pop out and measure ( and that is part of the fun )  

it's interpreting the charts, local knowledge . . . . and a sprinkling of fairy dust ;-)

[danm]

Let's remind ourselves of Feb '91:

 

[tomp456]

3.3c on Worthing Pier. 

It's going to be a cold one tonight! 

[SLEETY]

Looks like chance of blizzards in our region end of next week,looking at the latest runs

[Seasonal Trim]

I don't often post in the regional thread, but I think this occasion definitely requires me to keep an eye in here. I will be working in Hertfordshire on Sunday & Monday night, which means I'll be commuting around the M25 from South Essex and through some rural roads at silly hours in the morning. I've had to do it before in 2009 & 2010, and I have to say, the M25 on both of those occasions was an absolute nightmare! What makes it worse, are the people who have no idea of the dangers of driving in heavy snow. Seen too many snow related incidents in my time due to idiot drivers. 

Edited February 23, 2018 by Nizzer

[shawng]

Current uk power demand, wonder if we will get in the red next week

[Mark]

Feels like we are in an afternoon slump where everyone has just realised they have spent most of the day on Netweather and maybe they should do a bit of work to justify getting paid 

Edited February 23, 2018 by Mark

[Mark]

19 minutes ago, shawng said:

Current uk power demand, wonder if we will get in the red next week

The nerd in me likes that website!