SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

[Southender]

Just now, FetchCB said:

What link?

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/

[spayne]

1 minute ago, FetchCB said:

What link?

sorry, this one

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/

[FetchCB]

Seems to work for me

 

[spayne]

Just now, FetchCB said:

Seems to work for me

 

well, yes if you click on it, I can make it work too....but try and find it directly from their website

[throwoff]

Not a surprise that we have gone to amber for cold, that will trigger final activation of many contingency systems in local authorities and healthcare/emergency services.

While we are all excited about the coming snow I have been making sure that I tell all my students (I am a teacher for people learning English as a second language) that they should ensure their friends etc are all safe and well in the coming week. Older people and those not familiar with the damage to infrastructure these events can cause need to be looked out for.

[warrenb]

Already reports of snow grains on yorkshire coast

[FetchCB]

4 minutes ago, spayne said:

well, yes if you click on it, I can make it work too....but try and find it directly from their website

Ahh I see, yes you dont seem to be able to Navigate to it, I got there via the NHS England website

 

For those interested in what happens when these alerts are issued;

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/cold-weather-plan-action-cards-for-cold-weather-alert-service

[Southender]

Outside you can feel the continental drift starting to ramp up. Incredibly dry air, that whiff of snow, that chill on your skin, clouds rolling west to east. Mother Thames is speaking....Bill Paxton moment (RIP ?)

Edited February 23, 2018 by Southender

[FetchCB]

Just now, Southender said:

Outside you can feel the continental drift starting to ramp up. Incredibly dry air, that whiff of snow, clouds rolling west to east. Mother Thames is speaking....

Yes funny that , walked the dog this morning and it reminded me of a skiing trip when I was a kid....dull sky, cold and very dry air

[Flaked Queen]

46 minutes ago, Essex Chelle said:

Shopping ordered for Sunday delivery and new snow boots - hard to find tbh in my big size 8 I had to go for mens ?

I have to go with kids section  as I’m a size 3 ... so stuck with bright pink unicorn wellies  

[KDME]

I asked this question earlier in the week - How do people see this spell potentially comparing with previous sold spells?

A lot more data and closer to the start of the event now.  Something like 2010 or my personal cold/snow nirvana - 1987?

Thanks,

[spayne]

7 minutes ago, FetchCB said:

Ahh I see, yes you dont seem to be able to Navigate to it, I got there via the NHS England website

 

For those interested in what happens when these alerts are issued;

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/cold-weather-plan-action-cards-for-cold-weather-alert-service

thanks for that, I thought it was me going mad not being able to find it on the Met Office site

[trickybirdy]

Smelt the whiff of snow yesterday! Time to get my camera out, dust it down and charge both batteries.  I have two places I want to go to which are local, very old and extremely pretty church in Nuxley Village 'All Saints', got married there in August 2016, so many happy memories. Plus Lessness Abbey, near Thames Mead, got a lot of lovely forest around the area too.  Can't wait for the event to start!  

Edited February 23, 2018 by trickybirdy
Spelling error

[Bogman]

Winds picked up.

 

[spayne]

2 minutes ago, Snowflake Queen said:

I have to go with kids section  as I’m a size 3 ... so stuck with bright pink unicorn wellies  

but so much cheaper though!! :-)

[yamkin]

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days - Updated: 01:52 on Fri 23 Feb 2018 GMT

UK Outlook for Tuesday 27 Feb 2018 to Thursday 8 Mar 2018:
It will continue very cold through next week, with sunny spells. However, snow showers are likely in many places, heaviest and most frequent in eastern and some central areas. Some spells of more prolonged snow are likely, especially in the east, and particularly later next week, across southern areas. Some locally significant snowfalls are likely although details will remain uncertain until much nearer the event. Strong winds will make it feel bitterly cold at times. Widespread, locally severe frosts are likely. The cold weather will continue into early March, with the northwest seeing the best of any brighter weather. Continuing windy at times, bringing marked wind chill and further snow in places. However the southwest may become milder at times but with further rain, sleet or snow.

UK Outlook for Friday 9 Mar 2018 to Friday 23 Mar 2018:
At the start of this period it is likely to be very cold across the UK, with widespread frost and brisk easterly winds from Continental Europe, making it feel raw. This will continue to bring the risk of significant snow across some southern, eastern and central parts of the UK, whereas towards the north and west it will be drier. As we head through the middle of March, there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast, but it may start to turn more unsettled and less cold with the wettest and mildest weather spreading in from the southwest. In contrast, northern and eastern areas could remain colder well into March.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/long-range-forecast

Edited February 23, 2018 by yamkin

[saint]

Good to hear the METO cold warning mention the risk showers spreading westwards as Tuesday/Wednesday go on and pose the risk to almost anywhere. 

[bobbydog]

lol i'm about 4 miles outside the warning zone (the blue dot)-

i'm sure by monday, the warning area will be much bigger...

[Southender]

1 minute ago, bobbydog said:

lol i'm about 4 miles outside the warning zone (the blue dot)-

i'm sure by monday, the warning area will be much bigger...

For sure. The whole country will be under at least a yellow.

[Tom Jarvis]

I’m hopeing there will be enough snow on the ground to stop me haveing to travel the short journey to uckfield for work lol. 

[beng]

 

This is probably a complete ramp & it remains to see whether it's a valid one or not, but looking back at the Feb 1991 event and comparing to what's currently modeled for next week, the coming event looks considerably more severe in terms of snowfalls.  I remember in Reigate that the snow didn't set in until 5-6 pm on Wednesday 7th. My local school was open the next morning (so depths can't have been massive by 9am Thursday), but it closed Lunchtime and that was it until after half term!

 

I seem to recall that it then snowed most of the day Thursday and into the early hours Friday (became light on the Friday and gradually petered out). The area had about 9 inches of snow once it stopped; we probably had ~48 hours of falling snow, with 24 hours at peak intensity.

A rough guess would be that this time around we're possibly looking at 72 (maybe a bit more) hours of snow (Tues-Fri) - with 48 hours peak intensity - so if we're 'lucky' then my area may be looking at 12 inches of snow - depending upon the exact wind direction etc. That said, the lake effect snow streamers may behave slightly differently to Jan 87, Feb 91 and Dec 2010 (all delivered 9 inches plus here - more on the downs above the town); the reason I say that, is because during Dec-Feb, surface conditions inland are obviously a bit colder than we'll get next week, due to the longer nights. The slightly warmer land temps this time will increase the temperature differential in land between the surface and streamer systems in the atmosphere relative to 87/91.  I would 'guess' the impact of that will be that the streamers may maintain a higher intensity further inland - so snowfall amounts/hour may be higher that we saw back in 87/91/2010 etc.  What I'm not sure on is what the North Sea temps were in 87 and 91 - possibly slightly higher so that might negate things to some extent.

Would be great if some of the more knowledgeable convection experts could say whether I'm barking up the wrong tree with regards the streamers and the impact slightly warmer inland surface conditions may have.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 23, 2018 by beng

[Matty88]

11 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

lol i'm about 4 miles outside the warning zone (the blue dot)-

i'm sure by monday, the warning area will be much bigger...

Wouldn't take that as gospel - as Southender says its just a preliminary warning. As and when the charts become clearer it may well be extended/moved dependant on exactly where the lines of snow showers will be. 

As is the case with snow showers - we all know that within an area of 5 miles one person can see 5 inches and the other will get nothing. Hence prepare for potential disappointment... at least until we hopefully see that low get a bit further North on Thursday  

Edited February 23, 2018 by Matty88

[Coopsy]

Love the met office - 3 days out and such a bullish warning for the SE

[MAF]

trickbirdy Lesnes Abbey Woods are nice to walk through, but Bostal Woods might be better once its snowed.

[Paul Sherman]

On 2/16/2018 at 11:17, yamkin said:

develop

Wife reporting snow grains in Leigh  On Sea already