SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

[throwoff]

20 minutes ago, Ellozee said:

Don't focus on the precipitation, most of which in this scenario will be forming as troughs come over the North Sea/Channel. Most models and the apps that use the data can't accurately forecast PPN until within 48h. Get the cold in first and then worry about the snow.

100% spot on. 

You can barely forecast snow as it is, lake effect is nigh impossible.

[markdeacon]

[turkishfella]

guys, could anyone of you share a link where I can track the snow bands from the North Sea and English Channel Monday onwards?

[Memphis snow]

29 minutes ago, lawrenk said:

Don’t worry, they’ll be back, disappear again, then come back again several times before Monday! Seem to change constantly.

They removed mine for Monday then put a weather warning ⚠️ in place for snow?

[Nick F]

Lol, now this is big ramp, Derek a weather forecaster on BBC Wales I believe

 

[Snipper]

Wonder how many employers are getting more than miffed that some of their employees are spending so much of their paid time on line looking up the weather? Might be better to concentrate on your job. Just a thought.

[Nick F]

2 minutes ago, Snipper said:

Wonder how many employers are getting more than miffed that some of their employees are spending so much of their paid time on line looking up the weather? Might be better to concentrate on your job. Just a thought.

I'm not working, but yes, some unproductive work environments as we approach a potential historic, for late Feb/early March anyway, very cold and snowy spell.

[SMU]

No issues for me im by a swimming pool-

 

Snow update

Allignment of the GFS 6z brings ahead the cold by 3-6 hours

we are now looking at late afternoon / early eve for the first PPn to develop

T54 - 12pm sun

Edited February 23, 2018 by Steve Murr

[snowrye]

8 minutes ago, turkishfella said:

guys, could anyone of you share a link where I can track the snow bands from the North Sea and English Channel Monday onwards?

Radar watching mate,thats the way forward

[snowrye]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

Snow update

Allignment of the GFS 6z brings ahead the cold by 3-6 hours

we are now looking at late afternoon / early eve for the first PPn to develop

T54 - 12pm sun

Might get my wish of being snowed in with my daughter's then

[Mark Bayley]

Debating whether to stay in Harrow or head back north (Sheffield) for my snow fix. Certainly don't want to miss out on any frontal events (which will favour the south)..

[Britneyfan]

Met office have updated their cold weather alert to level 3

[Thin Ice]

I'm returning from a business trip in Munich on Tuesday evening, flying into Heathrow about 8pm. Will I get home to SE Kent or be stranded ?????

[Katrine Basso]

34 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

Nice update this morning from John Hammond:

By Monday, very cold (‘polar continental’) air will have arrived across all areas of the UK – a marked step up in chill from the weekend. Temperatures in many places will be barely above freezing, the cold accentuated by the easterly wind.

Weather-wise, initially, western areas will be driest and brightest. But already there will be snow flurries further east. And through the day, snow showers here will become heavy and more prolonged. Accumulating snowfall is likely to develop across central and eastern parts of the UK, especially as we head into the night.

By Tuesday. I’m expecting disruptive amounts of snowfall to have fallen in some places. There is likely to be marked variation in amounts of snowfall, but parts of southeast England, East Anglia, northeast England and eastern Scotland are in line for some of the larger accumulations.

Conditions will deteriorate further through the midweek period, with the prospect of disruptive snowfall to be carried more widely westwards across some parts of the UK. Nobody is immune to snowfall by this time. I expect school closures, as well as major impacts on travel and other infrastructure.

https://weathertrending.com/2018/02/23/on-the-horizon-historic-cold-spell/

I have read a message on the Facebook Thurrock Community group page that will be heavy snow for Thurrock on Monday and variable amounts of snowfall on Tuesday and Wednesday.

[Uxbridge90]

1 minute ago, Thin Ice said:

I'm returning from a business trip in Munich on Tuesday evening, flying into Heathrow about 8pm. Will I get home to SE Kent or be stranded ?????

I think getting into Heathrow shouldn't be too much of a problem, might be a bit of snow but not as bad as others areas, especially with the potential positioning of the streamer . Getting to SE Kent could be an issue though

[FetchCB]

4 minutes ago, Britneyfan said:

Met office have updated their cold weather alert to level 3

Question is given the severity will it go to level 4

 

Major incident - Emergency response

Central Government will declare a Level 4 alert in the event of severe or prolonged cold weather affecting sectors other than health.

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/health/yourhealth/cold-weather-alerts

[SMU]

By close of play monday (23:59) im expecting a wide cover over North & North west Kent, SE london,south East essex,South Suffolk - maybe up as high as 6 inches over the hills - 1-5 elsewhere

The PPN builds overnight sunday but the optimal time for widespread snow ( moving to the outer counties ) is around lunchtime monday ...

The models - even the high res / fine mesh ones will still be miles out on depths...

[spayne]

anybody seen this yet?

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

Edited February 23, 2018 by spayne

[EJA]

33 minutes ago, turkishfella said:

guys, could anyone of you share a link where I can track the snow bands from the North Sea and English Channel Monday onwards?

Net weather radar is good 

[Laurence Hill]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

By close of play monday (23:59) im expecting a wide cover over North & North west Kent, SE london,south East essex,South Suffolk - maybe up as high as 6 inches over the hills - 1-5 elsewhere

The PPN builds overnight sunday but the optimal time for widespread snow ( moving to the outer counties ) is around lunchtime monday ...

The models - even the high res / fine mesh ones will still be miles out on depths...

Morning Steve, are we nearly at 100%?

[FetchCB]

useful article re converting rainfall totals to snow

https://sciencing.com/calculate-rain-snow-8344589.html

not normally an issue in this country as temps normally around zero 

[Dami]

I would say it was heaviest frost i have seen all winter, white every where.  Bedford is out of any snow warning (for now) just cloud for me.

\0/

Unless someone can say other wise?

[Mark]

I'm amazed that just about every online main stream media outlet is carrying the warning on their home page in some way, apart from the BBC. They have a small weather warning link on their weather page, and that seems to be it!

Even if they don't think the snow warrants a report, at least warn people about the cold. There are many that take the BBC as gospel. 

[FetchCB]

3 minutes ago, EJA said:

Net weather radar is good 

Not sure how far out NW radar goes but this one is europe wide

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/radar/europe.html

[Britneyfan]

Bbc are useless, although they are better on twitter account than their website