SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

[steveinsussex]

3 minutes ago, Vesuvius said:

I love this part with where we are at, I feel like a child on 21 December.

 

 

Sometimes Santa doesnt actually turn up though.....

[Redmc13]

10 minutes ago, Dan the Man said:

WOW.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/43164159

Look at this from around 2:10 onwards. I don't think I've ever seen anything like this in the UK.

Like the idea of the snow coming up from France at end ????Be better for my location in the channel !! 

[Azores Hi]

9 minutes ago, Sarah Anne said:

Hey everyone Ive been a snow hunter all my life and been reading and posting on here since 2007 or earlier.

Anyway reregistered as all details have changed.

 

I have a question for Steve or anyone else.

 

Weve moved house previously in a snow sweet spot 180asl in lyminge north downs.

 

Now we are in ashford.

In lyminge we were keen to have kent clippers 

 

In regard to thames streamers my understanding is they normally dont progress further south than maidstone.

 

In regard to any future events not just tjis one.. have we moved to a poor territory for snow. No kent clipper no thames streamer lower level etc... is there any streamer clipper equivalent that ashford benefits from lol

 

My old name was sarahgiles79xxx i think i cant remember

Speaking as a resident Ashfordian we do best in a NE wind. Current outlook is good but maybe not as good as it could be. The extreme nature of this event though would suggest that the diffence between Lyminge and Ashford will be negligible the key diffence being altitude, not a big factor in this situation. That would give you the advantage in more marginal outlooks though. 

[Joanne Swann]

oh i love the roller coaster rides, we have been on many here, but this one seems to be the best so far, up in the air and dont want to go down, a very exciting event indeed,  

[Dan the Man]

2 minutes ago, Redmc13 said:

Like the idea of the snow coming up from France at end ????Be better for my location in the channel !! 

I also think the milder air won't encroach that far north into the Channel.

[Bricriu]

Any non- believer please leave by the side door now. Brace yourself everyone else the snow is coming. brr

[tomp456]

Gosh.

i can already see what’s going to happen with any snow that might come up from France.

 

it will stay in france.

 

like the summer storms 

 

[Jayces]

In defense of the media forecasts until the met office puts out any warnings there is no point in causing panic when the details of where and how much aren't nailed down yet.

There are some great members on here who know their stuff and can see what will happen based on what the models show and their expertise and experience but we're still talking 5 days away before anything significant happens and that's just too long in weather terms to start putting it in the forecasts I think.

The forecast that was just linked further up the thread I think was a fair one and shows what could happen. I expect over the weekend the s word will be mentioned more and more.

Agreed with how the met office have handled this but even with all their supercomputers and experts they still can't commit to warnings etc until they are as confident as possible. If I remember rightly the 2010 Thames Streamer had been going for hours before the orange warning was upgraded to red simply because they couldn't predict how much snow was going to fall I expect.

I have no doubt though from what I've been reading here that we are in for a memorable end to winter 17/18 :-)

[snoangel]

2 hours ago, Streetkid said:

I am new to the forum, long time lurker though! Wondered what weather station you’d bought?  I’ve been looking for a while.

As with many of us, very excited! Been seeing this come to fruition on the runs for nearly a week now, and cannot believe there’s been no downgrade.   Had to pinch myself with the latest MetO video. Bring it on! ❄️?⛄️

Hi Streetkid

i bought aercus WS3083 professional weather station with UV and light meter.

Apparently Vantage Pro 2 is highly regarded but I couldn’t stretch to that!

[Bricriu]

Just a quick question can a polar flow form in this situation, or is pressure too high and not enough of a sea fetch involved when it's coming across the north sea?

Edited February 22, 2018 by Bricriu

[Dan the Man]

If that video verifies, there will be red (emergency) warnings across the South and Midlands.

[Country Boy]

It's - 20 in Moscow tonight

[yamkin]

22 minutes ago, Dan the Man said:

WOW.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/43164159

Look at this from around 2:10 onwards. I don't think I've ever seen anything like this in the UK.

Better late than never I suppose, but the MetO are still way in front with their possible significant snow updates

[Nick F]

5 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

Just a quick question can a polar flow form in this situation, or is pressure too high and not enough of a sea fetch involved when it's coming across the north sea?

Polar Lows don’t form in easterly flows as far as I’m aware, because of the short sea track over the North Sea, normally they form over the Norwegian Sea in an arctic northerly flow, and more particularly in early winter too, they are convectively driven so require warmer SSTs which are present to the north of Scotland thanks to the Gulf Stream. However, the ‘lake effect’ of the North Sea can still generate enough energy to bring copious amounts of snowfall.

[80sWeather]

Get in!

 

[yamkin]

10 minutes ago, Jayces said:

In defense of the media forecasts until the met office puts out any warnings there is no point in causing panic when the details of where and how much aren't nailed down yet.

There are some great members on here who know their stuff and can see what will happen based on what the models show and their expertise and experience but we're still talking 5 days away before anything significant happens and that's just too long in weather terms to start putting it in the forecasts I think.

The forecast that was just linked further up the thread I think was a fair one and shows what could happen. I expect over the weekend the s word will be mentioned more and more.

Agreed with how the met office have handled this but even with all their supercomputers and experts they still can't commit to warnings etc until they are as confident as possible. If I remember rightly the 2010 Thames Streamer had been going for hours before the orange warning was upgraded to red simply because they couldn't predict how much snow was going to fall I expect.

I have no doubt though from what I've been reading here that we are in for a memorable end to winter 17/18 :-)

The BBC Weather presenters were for some unknown reason saying it would be dry next week whilst the MetO were saying possible snow and then upgraded this to possible significant snow. So many were questioning the MeteoGroup's involvement with the BBC. At least the BBC Weather presenters are now forecasting possible snow & possible significant snow next week.

[Bricriu]

1 minute ago, Nick F said:

Polar Lows don’t form in easterly flows as far as I’m aware, because of the short sea track over the North Sea, normally they form over the Norwegian Sea in an arctic northerly flow, and more particularly in early winter too, they are convectively driven so require warmer SSTs which are present to the north of Scotland thanks to the Gulf Stream. However, the ‘lake effect’ of the North Sea can still generate enough energy to bring copious amounts of snowfall.

Thank you very much for your reply. And may i say I enjoy reading your posts on here. You always give a detailed explaination to the layman like me, and just as importantly a measured analysis of events- even though you seem to desire the same outcome as many of us on here.

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Polar Lows don’t form in easterly flows as far as I’m aware, because of the short sea track over the North Sea, normally they form over the Norwegian Sea in an arctic northerly flow, and more particularly in early winter too, they are convectively driven so require warmer SSTs which are present to the north of Scotland thanks to the Gulf Stream. However, the ‘lake effect’ of the North Sea can still generate enough energy to bring copious amounts of snowfall.

Mind you if there ever wouldbe a slim chance, this is the sort of set-up that could, some massive lapse rates by Wed/Thurs.It may just fire up plenty of convection as you say,but I'd not totally rule it out, especialy if we do get those -17/18/19C over the North Sea.

Also just to note the GFS has the winds just a touch more to the north than some of the other models, still will develop a great streamer in that flow but may not get as far west and more SW from the estuary. 

 

[snoangel]

2 hours ago, Streetkid said:

I am new to the forum, long time lurker though! Wondered what weather station you’d bought?  I’ve been looking for a while.

As with many of us, very excited! Been seeing this come to fruition on the runs for nearly a week now, and cannot believe there’s been no downgrade.   Had to pinch myself with the latest MetO video. Bring it on! ❄️?⛄️

Hi Streetkid

i bought aercus WS3083 professional weather station with UV and light meter.

Apparently Vantage Pro 2 is highly regarded but I couldn’t stretch to that!

[SMU]

GFs 18z now picking up the streamer 

starting 04:00 am Monday Morning-

Still expect it to be late eve though-

S

[Sarah Anne]

Ok snow prep-what do you do/get in? Im treating it like xmas

Ive just finished 5 loads of laundry changed beds hoovered

Garden cleared of dog poo and other debris that may hamper a clean surface

I have a sledge on way although heard home bargains are selling them for a fiver

I need wine chocolate stewing beef maybe soup actually...

 

Looking for inspiration

 

[Nick F]

Looking at the EC high res charts, it looks like Tuesday onwards will bring the greatest threat of heavy snowfall for SE and EA, as winds turn more ENE or NEly and strengthen allowing for greater sea track than an Ely flow and thus more moisture to pick up over the N Sea.

If the wind is ENE we could see a Thames Snow Streamer set up, NELy will favour Kent and Sussex for heavy and persistent snow showers, the subtle change in wind can make all the difference unless a disturbance / trough moves in from the N Sea - which would favour more areas inland, but can’t see any such feature for now.

At least this time we won’t have to worry about marginality probably the whole week, as Desmond points will be below freezing, so anything that falls will be white.

Edited February 22, 2018 by Nick F

[SMU]

Hes my hero desmond dewpoint ?

[pinball wizard]

4 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Looking at the EC high res charts, it looks like Tuesday onwards will bring the greatest threat of heavy snowfall for SE and EA, as winds turn more ENE or NEly and strengthen allowing for greater sea track than an Ely flow and thus more moisture to pick up over the N Sea.

If the wind is ENE we could see a Thames Snow Streamer set up, NELy will favour Kent and Sussex for heavy and persistent snow showers, the subtle change in wind can make all the difference unless a disturbance / trough moves in from the N Sea - which would favour more areas inland, but can’t see any such feature for now.

At least this time we won’t have to worry about marginality probably the whole week, as Desmond points will be below freezing, so anything that falls will be white.

Yup it's all about those Desmond points

 

[Crystal Memories]

3 minutes ago, Sarah Anne said:

Ok snow prep-what do you do/get in? Im treating it like xmas

Ive just finished 5 loads of laundry changed beds hoovered

Garden cleared of dog poo and other debris that may hamper a clean surface

I have a sledge on way although heard home bargains are selling them for a fiver

I need wine chocolate stewing beef maybe soup actually...

 

Looking for inspiration

 

I got a husky 3 years ago in preparation for this