SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

[Gowon]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Just worth noting the WRF higher resolution is just starting to come into range and suggests a thames snow streamer setting up around 9am on Monday.Normal locations that get hit.

Perfect.. I'll be back home from work with my feet up chilling and enjoying a nice cup of tea 

[Southender]

34 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

lake effect snow guys

our lake ( the thames / North sea )

7c

850 Temps -15c

Gradient 22c

You can add another degree on the Thames temperature mate. Nearer 8c at the moment, certainly my end ??

[lottiekent]

A lovely sunny day with a high of 3.9c. 

Does anyone else come back on NW with a sense of trepidation, just in case the whole thing has disappeared and there's warm southerlies on the cards? Or is that just me ?

[Neilsouth]

31 minutes ago, yamkin said:

The MetO are already suggesting possible 'Significant Snow' for next week. The MeteoGroup's BBC Weather presenters are lagging behind big time

What's up with the MeteoGroup? Some of the worst forecasting I've come across, it's as if nothing much is happening this week but " colder "

[Allezwasps.]

Stunning evening , snow incoming and arsenal loosing , happy days.

[SMU]

I would certainly subscribe to that echo image above from @kold weather however based on the instability I expect to see the first line of attack about 8-10pm sun - along the estuary then gradually progress from there

hoping for 2-3cm before Dawn monday so I can call off the school run !

[Captain Shortwave]

34 minutes ago, yamkin said:

The MetO are already suggesting possible 'Significant Snow' for next week. The MeteoGroup's BBC Weather presenters are lagging behind big time

I guess it will be interesting to see how convective things get considering it is late February. We already know similar set ups in January (87) and early February (91) could cripple infrastructure. I could easily see things being pretty bad, especially as this spell could have some serious legs to go with that huge bite by the middle of next week.

I must admit considering the huge ramps from the media ahead of non events. There hasn't been any more said than usual or in fact less perhaps. Strange that a potential severe event has almost been ignore with the excpetion of the metoffice who have been calling this risk for weeks and of course the fantastic pros on here.

[stotm]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I would certainly subscribe to that echo image above from @kold weather however based on the instability I expect to see the first line of attack about 8-10pm sun - along the estuary then gradually progress from there

hoping for 2-3cm before Dawn monday so I can call off the school run !

Have to go to gatwick 9.30 pm Monday , might not be fun then.

[chionomaniac]

Interestingly this has all the hallmarks of previous notable cold spells throughout the years. First a high pressure that gives cold days and frost by nights. Then we see the temps drop daily before the real cold hits. The ground becomes frozen hardly thawing out during the day and is in perfect condition to accept the snow when it comes.

Great to see.

[Mark wheeler]

I asked my boss today at work as to what contingency plans we can put in place to get staff to work next week and that we should book hotels early for Monday night etc . He laughed and said he has never seen snow for more than  6 years in the south , he is Scottish , I stated to him that he will be eating his words next week . I tried I suppose , however I suppose there is still a chance we end up with nothing .

[SLEETY]

I think the met office have been brilliant in the run up to this cold spell.

For what has felt like weeks,they have been suggesting the U.K. cold see prolonged cold weather due to the SSW that’s been taking place,and have mentioned the possibility of disruptive snow for the last couple of weeks.

Yet the BBC forecasts supplied by Mteogroup said two days ago tthe U.K. would be dry all next week.

Feel a bit sorry for some of the  BBC. forecasters because if you read their twitter feeds,some of them have been ramping up the cold spell ,yet on their tv presentations it’s been so different with still no mention of the possibility of disruptive snow.

Metogroup are going to face some awkward questions if this event  turns out as severe as it is currently looking.

[Southender]

5 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

I think the met office have been brilliant in the run up to this cold spell.

For what has felt like weeks,they have been suggesting the U.K. cold see prolonged cold weather due to the SSW that’s been taking place,and have mentioned the possibility of disruptive snow for the last couple of weeks.

Yet the BBC forecasts supplied by Mteogroup said two days ago tthe U.K. would be dry all next week.

Feel a bit sorry for some of the  BBC. forecasters because if you read their twitter feeds,some of them have been ramping up the cold spell ,yet on their tv presentations it’s been so different with still no mention of the possibility of disruptive snow.

Metogroup are going to face some awkward questions if this event  turns out as severe as it is currently looking.

Blame Theresa May. She doesn’t want word getting out a load of Eastern European snow is on the way. #Snexit ❄️

Edited February 22, 2018 by Southender

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Interestingly this has all the hallmarks of previous notable cold spells throughout the years. First a high pressure that gives cold days and frost by nights. Then we see the temps drop daily before the real cold hits. The ground becomes frozen hardly thawing out during the day and is in perfect condition to accept the snow when it comes.

Great to see.

Yep, I think today felt colder than was forecasted but I've got to say I've not paid too much attention. This set-up is great though to help lower soil temperatures with frosts in the morning helping greatly. At least this time round the evolution has been quick, in 1991 it took the best part of 2 weeks to evolve into the pattern, this time just 4-5 days.

Also big props to Met office, they have been great thus far.

[Arrows1986]

16 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I would certainly subscribe to that echo image above from @kold weather however based on the instability I expect to see the first line of attack about 8-10pm sun - along the estuary then gradually progress from there

hoping for 2-3cm before Dawn monday so I can call off the school run !

Cm?

[Sarah Anne]

Hey everyone Ive been a snow hunter all my life and been reading and posting on here since 2007 or earlier.

Anyway reregistered as all details have changed.

 

I have a question for Steve or anyone else.

 

Weve moved house previously in a snow sweet spot 180asl in lyminge north downs.

 

Now we are in ashford.

In lyminge we were keen to have kent clippers 

 

In regard to thames streamers my understanding is they normally dont progress further south than maidstone.

 

In regard to any future events not just tjis one.. have we moved to a poor territory for snow. No kent clipper no thames streamer lower level etc... is there any streamer clipper equivalent that ashford benefits from lol

 

My old name was sarahgiles79xxx i think i cant remember

[SLEETY]

Feels bitter outside now trying to get the cat inside,can’t imagine how cold it’s going to feel by the end of the weekend 

[Dan the Man]

WOW.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/43164159

Look at this from around 2:10 onwards. I don't think I've ever seen anything like this in the UK.

[Rinse The Raindrops]

https://twitter.com/EssexWeather/status/966769253792845825

 

More

It's the high-res models that pick up the snow and they only go out to 48-72hrs. Todays global (12Z) model from the Met Office had a Thames Streamer in place late Monday and into Tuesday whereas ECM had four days of continous snow showers across SE England.

1 reply0 retweets2 likes

 

 

[chionomaniac]

I suspect that initially there won't be too much snow away from coastal regions until Tuesday. Then snow amounts will increase every day as the lower heights increase instability. Be happy to see some snow here on Monday. Be disappointed not to see some by late Tuesday.

[moogyboobles]

11 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

I think the met office have been brilliant in the run up to this cold spell.

For what has felt like weeks,they have been suggesting the U.K. cold see prolonged cold weather due to the SSW that’s been taking place,and have mentioned the possibility of disruptive snow for the last couple of weeks.

Yet the BBC forecasts supplied by Mteogroup said two days ago tthe U.K. would be dry all next week.

Feel a bit sorry for some of the  BBC. forecasters because if you read their twitter feeds,some of them have been ramping up the cold spell ,yet on their tv presentations it’s been so different with still no mention of the possibility of disruptive snow.

Metogroup are going to face some awkward questions if this event  turns out as severe as it is currently looking.

I know! It's like the BBC moved onto someone new and you carry on being great and now the ex who dumped you realises the grass wasn't greener.
 

[HammerJack]

58 minutes ago, tinybill said:

if  the servers  are crashing now what going to happen next week!!

They will freeze and no one will be able to help until the Atlantic comes to our rescue and defrosts the servers, the river Thames and the whole of the SE... ?

[Mark]

3 minutes ago, Dan the Man said:

WOW.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/43164159

Look at this from around 2:10 onwards. I don't think I've ever seen anything like this in the UK.

If that's the best they can do right now, then we're in for a treat in reality!

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

I suspect that initially there won't be too much snow away from coastal regions until Tuesday. Then snow amounts will increase every day as the lower heights increase instability. Be happy to see some snow here on Monday. Be disappointed not to see some by late Tuesday.

I suspect your broadly right away from the Thames Estuary which seems to work partly through atmospheric lapse rates but also the funneling effect of the land which causes some frictional effects. Probably Monday night is where those away from the usual streamers will probably start to really join in.

[Vesuvius]

I love this part with where we are at, I feel like a child on 21 December.

The Main model threads have been great but just as an MP does when the votes come in, we head for our constituency.  And hey, we are all winners for once

Fab that we have Chio, SM, NickF and our long forgotten friend Nick Sussex (he's one of us) and the snowdreamer as well as so many other experts / enthusiasts amongst our ranks.

I hope you all enjoy the snow that is coming, I'm off to the garage to dig out my emergency beer supplies (which I will replenish tomorrow having convinced the family that I will be snowed in from Monday)

 

Edited February 22, 2018 by Vesuvius

[throwoff]

I think Medway and a lot of Kent will see something Monday possibly even late Sunday as Mr Murr as suggested. Tuesday looks to be the day when the rest of the UK gets in on the fun.