SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

[JennyJane1]

1 minute ago, John Hodgson said:

I’m actually getting worried about travelling north on Thursday morning. Would anyone with experience of past snow events know how bad the East Coast Main Line gets affected? 

You and me both i'm going to be checking national rail right up to departure.

[JennyJane1]

9 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:

What bird have you got?? 

He's a great black-backed seagull.

Edit, no seriously, he is.

Edited February 22, 2018 by JennyJane1

[yamkin]

Southern Rail practicing before the Big Freeze strikes 

[Daniel*]

7 minutes ago, Dorset_mist said:

Good afternoon SE snow hunters! My company pay for access to Met Office data (stocks and shares and all that jazz). We have all been placed on RED disaster recovery status alert, avoiding all none essential travel. The Beast is coming...

If you’re having a giraffe you’re banished from the se thread.  

[snowray]

30 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Chaos. Looks worse than 2009 it’s over days too...

Yes this is going to be worse than 2009 if everything goes according to plan, I'm hoping for the Ely or ENEly, to much of a NEly and we might miss out on the really heavy stuff which will be hitting Central and East Kent and towards East Sussex, also coastal EA. 

I remember how back in 87 or maybe 91, anyway when the wind veered more NEly it would be snowing the other side of Dartford, getting heavier and heavier as you got towards Gravesend but back here around Bexleyheath it was just flurries. 

[Flaked Queen]

Just now, Daniel* said:

If you’re having a giraffe you’re banished from the se thread.  

Not often I agree with you mr d but yeah I smell something fishy here and not one of Jenny’s birds food either ... 

[Met4Cast]

I'm fully prepared to be off of work by Wednesday next week

[Flaked Queen]

Just now, Daniel Smith said:

I'm fully prepared to be off of work by Wednesday next week

I’m not ! If I don’t get in I don’t get paid simple as ... and ppl rely on me ( I’m a carer) so what ever happens I’m getting there for them and me lol 

[Hodgheg]

15 minutes ago, JennyJane1 said:

You and me both i'm going to be checking national rail right up to departure.

Looks like I’ll be keeping a close eye on the weather then. Not that i haven been anyway haha. 

[Gowon]

16 minutes ago, JennyJane1 said:

He's a great black-backed seagull.

Edit, no seriously, he is.

How did you end up owning a seagull?

I actually don't know whether to be happy or sad.. I love snow, but if we get too much snow it affects our deliveries at work and we end up with backdated work on top of what we usually get..

Edited February 22, 2018 by D.V.R

[Country Boy]

But snowflake queen....others might not get into work as well

[snowray]

28 minutes ago, Staffordshire said:

Am i best heading towards the SE (Kent downs) or maybe somewhere else on the east coast? Upwards towards the peaks maybe? I need to make my decision by tomorrow evening hopefully and don't really know the topography/potential sweet spots in the SE.

I would say somewhere around Canterbury, just a guess, maybe the North Downs that run close by could be the jack pot.

What are other people saying? Steve M is the guy to ask.

 

[lassie23]

I'm having a BBQ Tuesday afternoon, garden furniture is out ready and waiting, hoping for a mild, sunny day

[snowray]

25 minutes ago, JennyJane1 said:

Thanks, I am going to supermarket tomorrow afternoon but as i'm getting stuff most dont want (fish for my bird, and stuff like that, and not bread and milk) i dont think i'll have a problem.i was wondering whether to leave it till monday but may not be able to get out if snow starts by then.

Monday, could be a covering of snow by then.

Oh but If its just fish that you want though I think you will be ok.

Edited February 22, 2018 by snowray

[moogyboobles]

Was just thinking what fortunate scheduling for BBC Four to be showing the wonderful series on temperature by Dr Helen Czerski at the moment! https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b09rzq05/episodes/guide

Edited February 22, 2018 by moogyboobles

[snowray]

25 minutes ago, John Hodgson said:

I’m actually getting worried about travelling north on Thursday morning. Would anyone with experience of past snow events know how bad the East Coast Main Line gets affected? 

I personally would not risk it, up to you though, could be fun but make sure you go prepared like a good boy scout.

[KDME]

23 minutes ago, Dorset_mist said:

RED disaster recovery status alert

WOW ... Maybe we should leave the country now to save ourselves?

[snowdrifter]

Hi all - followed ppls thoughts here esp words about disruption. I live in Lancashire but also work in Hammersmith on Mondays and Tuesdays, travelling down on train on Sunday eve , back Tues eve. Serious question - is there a chance of being stuck in London? Thinking of taking a couple of days extra essentials! Looks like there are very real chances of heavy London snow to heavy NW snow later in the week! 

[shaky]

58 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The UKMO 144 below

Shows pressure & heights / Thickness which we guage how unstable the air is-

Basically the differential between the sea temp ( 6-7 ) & the upper air temp @850 HPA of about -16c creates uplift & shower cloud - Which then dumps everyhing on the nearest land -

The showers will form 'trains' moving from east to west - so snow amounts wont be uniform across the piste - but because UKMO 96/120/144 have all got slightly different angles then everyone should get hit - It has to be said though the focus on UKMO raw is kent / SE essex / London / Suffolk & across into the SW parts / Sussex etc-

It will be like someone has just turned on the snow machine-

for those interested UKMO 850s from 72

72 -5c ( sunday lunch )

96 -12c  surface temp ~ 0 to -1c

120 -14c surface temp ~ -1 to -3c

144 -16c  !! surface temp ~ -2c to -5c

peak looks to be 144 although we should squeeze another 2 days after that

post that if you want -15c we need slack winds...

Steve is there still time for that dreaded southward movement off the easterly!!gfs has moved further south since the 06z ever so slightly!!lets hope ecm stays the same!!

[Donna3397]

36 minutes ago, snowray said:

One word...Yes, big time because people have not seen this sort of thing in years and think its going to be just another inch of slush and thats it, gosh they are going to be very wrong!

I just did a mega mega shop this morning, stocked up on just about everything including the last of the Bounty bars at Morrisons. Sorry Lassie, but I'm sure there are still some around over your way to add to your stock pile.

Oh, and It seems to me that people are panic buying already, never seen it so busy, I mentioned snow while queuing at the check out and they all knew about it for next week. 

Going Marks and Spencer Saturday for another top up hopefully they will still have stuff on their shelves.

 

So get you skates on, word is getting around fast!!

 

Is that an actual picture from today???

[tesaro]

36 minutes ago, Dbarb said:

I know places like Kent, London and areas inland from there will do well but what about places further north in East Anglia as I think they will miss most of the snow due to the wind direction. I live in mid essex and the showers tend to always go through Kent or hit the Norfolk coast and fizzle out as they head towards me. This is because unless the wind is directly east or south east the showers dont come here that often. 

A straight Easterly is fine for most of East Anglia as long as the wind has a bit of Omph to it. showers will be blown well inland from the North Sea and with a greater Sea track than areas further South can often be heavier and more prolonged. If the wind turns South of East then area to the south gain what we loose. As it looks on the latest UKMO chart we will all get more than enough.

[starstream]

30 minutes ago, Dorset_mist said:

Good afternoon SE snow hunters! My company pay for access to Met Office data (stocks and shares and all that jazz). We have all been placed on RED disaster recovery status alert, avoiding all none essential travel. The Beast is coming...

What exactly does that mean, or is it specific to your company ? E.g. Are you an AA man ?

[snowray]

7 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

I'm having a BBQ Tuesday afternoon, garden furniture is out ready and waiting, hoping for a mild, sunny day

Ooooooooooh really, am I invited Lassie?

What are you going to be BBQing, anything nice?

[stainesbloke]

1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

Will be very busy in here in the coming day probably busiest in many years. To think we came out in mass over some wet snowfall..

 

 

 

Well it has been slim pickings recently. Maybe a winter outbreak to remember, coming up?! Hopefully 

[High Altitude]

What are the chances of exceeding a forecast like this, one of my all time favourites.......