SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

[Joanne Swann]

oh its so ggos to be back on here, just got to put another 1000posts of its snowing on here again that includes every flake lol,

[seb]

1 minute ago, Matty88 said:

Rule number one: Don't take out of context what the meto have said, they have said any snowfall will be extremely marginal. It is not a dead cert at all. As it stands there is no hard information showing any potent snowfalls for our region. The charts will change of course - but the most they can muster as of today is some patchy 2-3cm coverings in Norfolk/Suffolk and Essex. There you go.... 

Erm no they have not.

Outlook for Saturday to Monday (South East):

Becoming much colder into the weekend and beyond, with an increasing wind chill. Overnight frost becoming more severe, and an increasing risk of scattered snow showers on Monday.

UK Outlook for Monday 26 Feb 2018 to Wednesday 7 Mar 2018:

It will be turning much colder next week. Monday and Tuesday will be mainly dry with sunny spells, but snow showers will develop across some eastern and southern areas, where fresh winds will make it feel bitterly cold. Through the rest of the week it will remain cold with an increased risk of ice, frost and snow showers. These will be heaviest and most frequent in central and eastern areas, and some spells of more prolonged snow are possible at times, particularly in the east and across southern England. The cold weather will continue into early March, with the northwest seeing the best of any brighter weather, and here it may be less cold at times, although brisk winds will continue to bring a marked wind chill.

That's not marginal at all - it gives a wide range from showers to significant snow across the SE. Apart from that, I can promise you that the extended outlook (above is from yesterday afternoon) will read significantly more bullish later today.

[Captain Shortwave]

18 minutes ago, Matty88 said:

I'm following the charts and forums with an extremely keen eye and note that the charts (particularly GFS) don't actually indicate any particularly potent snowfalls for our part of the world - right up until a week Saturday, just some light accumulations (2-3cm). 

It seems a lot on this forum and in particularly this thread are thinking the North Sea will provide us with banks of 'lake effect' snow - going against what the charts actually show us. I don't know about anyone else - I wish for this as much as anyone, and I hope the charts are wrong,  but to pin all our hopes on the North Sea to churn out masses of lake effect snow rather than what the charts actually predict would be a bit hopeful to say the least. I'm sure the charts have yet to calculate certain disturbances and instability etc - but we have been here many times before (including 2010/2013) and the North Sea simply hasn't delivered masses of shower activity - there were many disappointed. 

We'll have a much better idea of events on Monday next week... patience is key here. I can already see the daily mail articles of '10ft Siberian blizzard to hit London'..... lets not go there!!!!!! 

I don't think any model will accurately predict totals from snow, for a start different types of snow can lead to different depths depending on whether it is wet snow or dry. The fact the GFS has showers piling in on Monday and Tuesday is a positive and we need to watch for a front moving west from Scandinavia that could bring more prolonged snow later on Tuesday (This might miss us to the north though).

For the record the last GFS run has the -12C isotherm over the whole region for the entire working week (5 days) and this slips away north as an active front moves in from the south bringing blizzards. This would be an impressive cold spell even if it last that long and the depth of cold and instability should allow plenty of heavy snow showers. 

[moogyboobles]

14 minutes ago, Meggy said:

And so is Wincy Willis! Funny how these tunes go round and round in your head!

It is, the research behind earworms is quite interesting too! 

All this snow speculation is distracting me from working! Must get off this site for a bit.

[Matty88]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

A very bizzare 'outlandish' post @Matty88..

There is nil marginality...and the convective structure is looking prime..

Upper values-and any lake effect precip will be all snow...and likely the powder variety!!

Pin-pointing is reserved for now.

But impactual convection (snow) gaining momentum...and fast!!

I'm just sharing my views that I don't think we should all be getting on the 'gravy train'  that we're all in for a dumping. 

I have never said it's not a good set up - well, its good for cold - I can't say it's ideal for snow as of todays indicated wind direction (too much SE for my area). It's a pinpointing game as you say - but at the same time everyone seems to be jumping up and down with excitement for a big snow event - which at the moment doesn't exist ! That's only my point .... tight isobar. Maybe you know something we don't? I hope you are right with all your analytics regarding big convection.... 

[Britneyfan]

There is nothing marginal about next weeks forecast! 

[Kent Blizzard]

31 minutes ago, Matty88 said:

I'm following the charts and forums with an extremely keen eye and note that the charts (particularly GFS) don't actually indicate any particularly potent snowfalls for our part of the world - right up until a week Saturday, just some light accumulations (2-3cm). 

It seems a lot on this forum and in particularly this thread are thinking the North Sea will provide us with banks of 'lake effect' snow - going against what the charts actually show us. I don't know about anyone else - I wish for this as much as anyone, and I hope the charts are wrong,  but to pin all our hopes on the North Sea to churn out masses of lake effect snow rather than what the charts actually predict would be a bit hopeful to say the least. I'm sure the charts have yet to calculate certain disturbances and instability etc - but we have been here many times before (including 2010/2013) and the North Sea simply hasn't delivered masses of shower activity - there were many disappointed. 

We'll have a much better idea of events on Monday next week... patience is key here. I can already see the daily mail articles of '10ft Siberian blizzard to hit London'..... lets not go there!!!!!! 

Partly true but this is very intense cold air heading towards us coming over a warm surface ( North Sea ).... Lake Effect not sure why that term is being used, the North Sea is not a Lake 

Cold and Snow for all of us, or 95% of us, amounts? who knows 

Edited February 22, 2018 by Kent Blizzard

[Uxbridge90]

5 minutes ago, Britneyfan said:

There is nothing marginal about next weeks forecast! 

I think marginal has been used in the wrong context, the conditions certainly aren't marginal but how far the precipitation moves in land and which locations get a dumping is still very much up in the air - further East you are the better obviously. 

There's also a bit of reverse psychology going on here I think by a few people, perhaps trying to avoid disappointment from previous set ups. 

[Kent Blizzard]

One thing that does make me laugh with weather forums in general is as soon as we have something that looks really good we start to look for the breakdown before it's even begun.

It's like getting engaged, planning all the wedding but the night before you are starting to plan the divorce 

[seb]

Some apps (AccuWeather for once) are now starting to pick up shower activity for Mon-Wed but are still struggling.

AW is giving me 3.5 inches for that period from “occasional flurries”.

As I know the AW backend well, this discrepancy between amounts and descriptive text makes perfect sense to me but in general shows how badly automated apps cope with this kind of setup. It does the same by the way for lake effect snow in the US.

[snowblind]

1 hour ago, seb said:

 

PLEASE stop looking at the apps. This is not a setup suited for automated apps. Stick to text forecasts. No model used for any of the apps is properly capable of picking up "lake effect" snow showers.

I have looked at the text forecast and it is only mentioning scattered snow showers for Monday on the met office website. I am not worried about the computer generated app forecast but the text forecast is written by a forecaster presumably so that is my concern.

[suffolkboy_]

Have just been looking at this looking at winters gone by in Suffolk, some good photos. http://www.ipswichstar.co.uk/news/days-gone-by-do-you-remember-when-heavy-snow-fall-brought-ipswich-to-a-standstill-1-4830928

[kate1]

50 minutes ago, Matty88 said:

I'm following the charts and forums with an extremely keen eye and note that the charts (particularly GFS) don't actually indicate any particularly potent snowfalls for our part of the world - right up until a week Saturday, just some light accumulations (2-3cm). 

It seems a lot on this forum and in particularly this thread are thinking the North Sea will provide us with banks of 'lake effect' snow - going against what the charts actually show us. I don't know about anyone else - I wish for this as much as anyone, and I hope the charts are wrong,  but to pin all our hopes on the North Sea to churn out masses of lake effect snow rather than what the charts actually predict would be a bit hopeful to say the least. I'm sure the charts have yet to calculate certain disturbances and instability etc - but we have been here many times before (including 2010/2013) and the North Sea simply hasn't delivered masses of shower activity - there were many disappointed. 

We'll have a much better idea of events on Monday next week... patience is key here. I can already see the daily mail articles of '10ft Siberian blizzard to hit London'..... lets not go there!!!!!! 

 

Of course nothing is certain until much nearer the time, but this Twitter exchange with Ian Fergusson sounds quite positive:

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     Chris Thompson‏ @F1CWT 3h3 hours ago

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     Replying to @fergieweather

     Steve Murr saying SE/E going to get as much as 75cm of snow in next few days, would imagine a lot of red MetOffice snow warnings will be issued

     3 replies0 retweets0 likes

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     Ian Fergusson‏Verified account @fergieweather 3h3 hours ago

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     I don't know that source but in wider scheme of things the latent risks are quite evident (and not just for that area). Inadvisable to go cherry-picking most impressive figures re snow, but clearly we can’t discount anything at this early stage. Await @metoffice advice/warnings.

[seb]

10 minutes ago, snowblind said:

I have looked at the text forecast and it is only mentioning scattered snow showers for Monday on the met office website. I am not worried about the computer generated app forecast but the text forecast is written by a forecaster presumably so that is my concern.

Extended outlook (as per above) which will be updated this PM in any event.

Apart from that - scattered showers is entirely correct. It will be showers from the North Sea. Those showers brought us endless snow in previous similar set ups.

[kate1]

8 minutes ago, snowblind said:

I have looked at the text forecast and it is only mentioning scattered snow showers for Monday on the met office website. I am not worried about the computer generated app forecast but the text forecast is written by a forecaster presumably so that is my concern.

 

The snow was only ever forecast to begin in earnest late Monday/early Tuesday. The text forecast goes on to say the following from Tuesday onwards: 'snow showers are likely in many places, heaviest and most frequent in eastern and some central areas. Some spells of more prolonged snow are likely, especially in the east, and particularly later next week, across southern areas. Some locally significant snowfalls are likely although details will remain uncertain until much nearer the event'. I think the word 'likely' with regard to periods of prolonged and significant snow is as good as we can hope to get from the MetO at this stage in the proceedings.

[snowblind]

3 minutes ago, seb said:

Extended outlook (as per above) which will be updated this PM in any event.

Apart from that - scattered showers is entirely correct. It will be showers from the North Sea. Those showers brought us endless snow in previous similar set ups.

Yes, agreed the extended outlook is good was just hoping for things to kick off a bit earlier. Not too early mind as have the in-laws staying for the weekend so don't want them to get stuck with us due to snow!

[snowblind]

16 minutes ago, kate1 said:

Of course nothing is certain until much nearer the time, but this Twitter exchange with Ian Fergusson sounds quite positive:

1. New conversation

   •  

     Chris Thompson‏ @F1CWT 3h3 hours ago

     More

     Replying to @fergieweather

     Steve Murr saying SE/E going to get as much as 75cm of snow in next few days, would imagine a lot of red MetOffice snow warnings will be issued

     3 replies0 retweets0 likes

     Reply

      3

      

     Retweet

      

      

      

     Like

      

      

     Direct message
   •  

     Ian Fergusson‏Verified account @fergieweather 3h3 hours ago

     More

     I don't know that source but in wider scheme of things the latent risks are quite evident (and not just for that area). Inadvisable to go cherry-picking most impressive figures re snow, but clearly we can’t discount anything at this early stage. Await @metoffice advice/warnings.

Is he saying he doesn't know who Steve Murr is? Outrageous

Edited February 22, 2018 by snowblind

[lassie23]

1 hour ago, Joanne Swann said:

Hi all. not been on here for a while now, nice to see some faces, um new account so got to start from zero posts grr again, looking forward to all of the fun ,roller coaster rides and of course the pub runs lol 

Have you kidnapped the old Jo S

[Weathizard]

I think I may spontaneously combust if I read anymore posts flouncing about snow prospects, it's physically impossible for any forecaster LET ALONE computer model to give a true forecast right now.

 

Put it this way, we are in a better position than we have been all winter, the cold IS coming, oppourtunities a plenty next week and all to play for, trust me you'll drive yourself mad keep looking at forecasts and such.

[Wimbledon88]

5 minutes ago, kate1 said:

The snow was only ever forecast to begin in earnest late Monday/early Tuesday. The text forecast goes on to say the following from Tuesday onwards: 'snow showers are likely in many places, heaviest and most frequent in eastern and some central areas. Some spells of more prolonged snow are likely, especially in the east, and particularly later next week, across southern areas. Some locally significant snowfalls are likely although details will remain uncertain until much nearer the event'. I think the word 'likely' with regard to periods of prolonged and significant snow is as good as we can hope to get from the MetO at this stage in the proceedings.

Yes,exactly right.

And if folk aren't happy with an outlook like that if its snow they are aftet then I think they should take up another hobby.NO forecast is going to say tbete will ne six inches of snow on your truffle patch next Tuesday at 3.05pm !!!!

Best outlook I can ever recall,way better than 2010.

About the Apps debate,John Hammond( who I think knows a bit more than us about these things) specifically said in his video blog the other night,do NOT pay attention to apps in convective/ unstable situatioms like the one forecast for next week,tbey just cant handle it.

Oh and i cant help get the feeling there are some,how shall I put it,wind up merchants,on here today.Pay no heed to them.

 

 

[seb]

36 minutes ago, seb said:

Some apps (AccuWeather for once) are now starting to pick up shower activity for Mon-Wed but are still struggling.

AW is giving me 3.5 inches for that period from “occasional flurries”.

As I know the AW backend well, this discrepancy between amounts and descriptive text makes perfect sense to me but in general shows how badly automated apps cope with this kind of setup. It does the same by the way for lake effect snow in the US.

To add to this - this is now happening to all apps. MetO symbols have been showing the snow showers since this morning, then AW as per above, now the Weather Channel app is giving  snow showers from Mon late morning until Wed evening... (followed by a huge dumping from Thu evening (as per GFS)).

[warrenb]

Temp today not above 4.3C so far with DP of -2c.

[lawrenk]

As was said earlier, the METO update really doesn’t get much better than that for this region.

[Snowbound]

Hope this is the right place for this.. Take a look at this Met Office forecast for next week 10 days out. Is it usual for them to post to Youtube like this ?

 

 

[metaltron]

Are areas in the west of East Anglia, such as Cambridge, likely to be dry in this setup? Certainly, looks that way from the models; we get the least snow in the whole country! Does anybody remember what is was like in Cambridge in past easterly spells like Feb 91?