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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards


Captain Shortwave

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Posted
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
1 minute ago, lassie23 said:

Since everyone is asking questions that are impossible to answer regarding snow fall, i might as well join in. Will a snowflake land on my garage roof next week in my north west london dump hole?:pardon:

You've got more chance of a three legged cat landing on it:good:

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Posted
  • Location: Singleton, Kent
  • Location: Singleton, Kent
33 minutes ago, Arrows1986 said:

How about ipswich suffolk. Its frustrating the bbc weather shows dry and cold..random

 

31 minutes ago, snowblind said:

Have only had 30cms plus snow twice. Once in jan 1987, 30cms and Feb 1991, 34cms. I was in North East London burbs then. Now near Colchester so not sure if I am in a better position now or not. Deepest I've recorded here is 15cms in Feb 2012 and December 2010. If I manage over 15 this time I'll consider that a good effort.

Having said that I'll be lucky to get anything at all according to the latest met office forecast. Only showing cloud Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday and only mentions scattered snow showers for Monday in the outlook. :wallbash:

PLEASE stop looking at the apps. This is not a setup suited for automated apps. Stick to text forecasts. No model used for any of the apps is properly capable of picking up "lake effect" snow showers.

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
3 minutes ago, Snowman31 said:

As you live in a similar location to me, I know from experience that we miss a lot of the shower activity. Always seems to be to the south or north 

you are only up the road from here:good:

3 minutes ago, Chris101 said:

You've got more chance of a three legged cat landing on it:good:

and that has already happened:shok:

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Storm That Lasts 3 Days
  • Location: Brighton

Ok guys I stop looking at any apps or long term forecast sites. I hope we will get decent snowfall next week, if so I will be posting many snowy photos from Brighton here, promise :)

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Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL

So let's clear something up? What do the people who rely on an outlook still 5 days out want to see? You want to read a " two foot of snow " ? ......

This doesn't seem a bad output IMO at this early stage?

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Becoming even colder with widespread overnight frosts and bitter by day with a marked windchill. Snow showers in the east and southeast on Sunday, perhaps becoming more widespread on Monday.

Updated: 01:01 on Thu 22 Feb 2018 GMT

UK Outlook for Monday 26 Feb 2018 to Wednesday 7 Mar 2018:

It will be turning much colder next week. Monday and Tuesday will be mainly dry with sunny spells, but snow showers will develop across some eastern and southern areas, where fresh winds will make it feel bitterly cold. Through the rest of the week it will remain cold with an increased risk of ice, frost and snow showers. These will be heaviest and most frequent in central and eastern areas, and some spells of more prolonged snow are possible at times, particularly in the east and across southern England. The cold weather will continue into early March, with the northwest seeing the best of any brighter weather, and here it may be less cold at times, although brisk winds will continue to bring a marked wind chill.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Herts
  • Location: Herts

Why is everyone suddenly panicking about snow forecasts, wait for the cold air to get in before worrying about snow potential. 

Apps etc are useless at this distance, especially with connective snowfall and the likes of disturbances/troughs suddenly appearing. 

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Posted
  • Location: Canvey Island
  • Weather Preferences: Deep untouched powdery snow and red hot beaches sipping cocktails
  • Location: Canvey Island

Question - is it possible we would get this cold air for the whole of next week and see NO snow at all anywhere? Could it just be dry bitter cold? What makes you more experienced guys predict snow? Maybe be a dumb thing to ask but its Just popped into my head.

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Posted
  • Location: Singleton, Kent
  • Location: Singleton, Kent
1 minute ago, Essex Chelle said:

Question - is it possible we would get this cold air for the whole of next week and see NO snow at all anywhere? Could it just be dry bitter cold? What makes you more experienced guys predict snow? Maybe be a dumb thing to ask but its Just popped into my head.

Nope. All of the east coast will see snow. It's impossible not snow. How much is a different question and depends on a number of factors.

Central Europe will stay dry and extremely cold but for once us being on an island surrounded by water will be an advantage. Same applies to north east Germany as per my earlier post.

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Posted
  • Location: Bromborough WIRRAL
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold, hot sunny summer's and autumn storms
  • Location: Bromborough WIRRAL
1 hour ago, E17boy said:

Good morning great people Thursday morning and  it's Friday tomorrow. Hope everyone is feeling good ? 

if you re-call my post from Sunday I said I was going to wait till today to get excited. So we are here now and I must admit I felt the happiness in my heart when i saw that there's been an upgrade. I am a cm away from saying game is on but there is still 2 more days of loss sleep, tossing and turning and also the pain of sitting on the edge of that seat before I will tell my family. 

From where it stands this morning we are almost there and ithe conductor just said the train is running on time. What a journey so far and it's going to be one I am almost certainly going to remember for a long time. The best thing is all the sweet people in here with their ramps and laughs have made it all the better I admire you all its like our little family in here. 

We are just on the cusp of getting our dreams and wishes come true. The temperature is already dropping I noticed today and yesterday. I am sure our arrival schedule time on Sunday will be met with a red carpet the Siberian express is nearly there.

i wish you all a wonderful day and keep up the lovely posts and the humour. Let's keep our fingers crossed 2 more days we can make it no signal failures conductor.

kind regards . I dont usually comment as everybody on here knows alot more than me, lm just a newbie but i do remember your post

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Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
3 minutes ago, Essex Chelle said:

Question - is it possible we would get this cold air for the whole of next week and see NO snow at all anywhere? Could it just be dry bitter cold? What makes you more experienced guys predict snow? Maybe be a dumb thing to ask but its Just popped into my head.

Simple Answer - North Sea makes it very unlikely to remain dry in this set up, that's why the models struggle with precipitation in this set-up till it actually starts, but then it becomes a radar event mainly. Usually the dutch one.

Edited by Kent Blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Rye East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: snow (but who doesnt like that)
  • Location: Rye East Sussex
7 minutes ago, throwoff said:

Still too far out for it to  be reliable. 

If I have learnt one thing in all my time on NW it is to follow the proverb - Get the cold in first. 

The cold is now nearly 100% nailed on. Once that is in all we need is PPN. We are looking at possible streamers and lake effect snow, that can come nearly out of nowhere. 

thank you,   though that was the case,  can you tell me maybe how thay seem to be able to tell some snow will arrive like Thursday?  are their certain models that actually show this ??? whn you look at a model how can you tell the difference between the different precipitations?? sorry for all the questions I'm just trying to learn a little bit.

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Posted
  • Location: Herts
  • Location: Herts
12 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Ok....... I’m frankly shocked that Ian didn’t discount this comment! Neither did he confirm it it must be said. But this could be epic in some areas if that’s even half close

:help:

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An interesting post just now from the SW thread! 

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Posted
  • Location: Singleton, Kent
  • Location: Singleton, Kent
1 minute ago, saint said:

An interesting post just now from the SW thread! 

He can't discount it as it is a very possible scenario.

As per my earlier post - the german weather service is calling for >50cm of "lake effect" snow coming off the Baltic Sea - water temps are 5-6 degrees lower than the North Sea so despite the uppers there being 2-3 degree colder compared to what will sit above us, the difference in temps here is still greater. So >50cm in NE Germany could easily translate to more here.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Storm That Lasts 3 Days
  • Location: Brighton

Guys, actually I have some experience when it comes to sea-effect-snow. I am originally from Istanbul and in Istanbul we generally get sea-effect-snow every winter. The very cold air comes from Russie over black sea to Istanbul and generally black sea is warmer than the Russian air so we always get 10-30 cm of snow in Istanbul.

I just checked sea temretures now and it shows that Black Sea and North Sea are same so I assume we will get snow shower bants from North Sea (east to west) and hopefully Brighton will be one of the luckiest places in the south east (fingers crossed)

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Posted
  • Location: Great Yarmouth
  • Location: Great Yarmouth
33 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Since everyone is asking questions that are impossible to answer regarding snow fall, i might as well join in. Will a snowflake land on my garage roof next week in my north west london dump hole?:pardon:

No, because its seen what you do to three legged cats on your garage roof.

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Posted
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine. And storms
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk

Interesting to see the emphasis (at the moment) on Suffolk/Essex and London re snow. Everyone bangs on about 1991 but I have no record anywhere of significant snow in Norfolk (including my almanacs) although it was cold. Wondering if this could be the same this time? :cc_confused:

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Posted
  • Location: St Ives, Cambs
  • Location: St Ives, Cambs
1 minute ago, Norfolk Sheep said:

Interesting to see the emphasis (at the moment) on Suffolk/Essex and London re snow. Everyone bangs on about 1991 but I have no record anywhere of significant snow in Norfolk (including my almanacs) although it was cold. Wondering if this could be the same this time? :cc_confused:

Same could be said about 2010 and Cambridgeshire, saw an aerial photo of the UK and we were the one green patch.

Can't say about 1991, was back home in the East End then and we certainly had a job lot of snow

My missus was heavily pregnant at the time and didn't want to go out for fear of falling over

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Posted
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
10 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

When can we start playing - guess the inches game! :)

Getting a little excited now!

Yet they always want more ??‍♂️

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
1 minute ago, huntso said:

Same could be said about 2010 and Cambridgeshire, saw an aerial photo of the UK and we were the one green patch.

Can't say about 1991, was back home in the East End then and we certainly had a job lot of snow

My missus was heavily pregnant at the time and didn't want to go out for fear of falling over

Yes, Dec 2010 was bone-chillingly cold but largely snow-free here. Dec 2009 on the other hand was an absolute bonanza.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex near Ongar
  • Weather Preferences: Oh snow, got to be close second frosty mornings, all white and glistening,
  • Location: Essex near Ongar

Hi all. not been on here for a while now, nice to see some faces, um new account so got to start from zero posts grr again, looking forward to all of the fun ,roller coaster rides and of course the pub runs lol :yahoo:

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Posted
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow and ice days
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex

Let’s be honest we really can’t be asking for anymore than is showing at the moment.

Picking when, where and how much snow is pretty difficult at the moment but, with the current Synoptics, it really couldn’t look much better.

Ian Ferguson’s earlier TWEETED reply says it all really. Everything to play for.

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Posted
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk

Most snow events over the next week, maybe even beyond, will probably be sorted the day before, some troughs maybe a couple of days, but i've no doubt that some days will have snow thats not been  modeled at all, appear from literally a few hours beforehand.

Its certainly going to be a day by day basis for what could be a fair while.

@Essex Chelle, I really think it will be a see whats happening 24/48 hours before, it could very well be that there have been falls the day before and you manage to get a 12/24 hour window when main roads get cleared and the sun comes out for a bit to dry them right out.

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