SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

[Allezwasps.]

Are we thinking Amber warnings issued if it looks nailed on by weekend ?

[smith25]

well it hasn't downgraded like normal and if anything it's upgraded.  The last time this happened with the models was 2010.  I just hope we get more of the white stuff this time round.

[seb]

Just as an FYI for people who are worried about snow showers from the East. The German Met Office is expecting >50cm from "lake effect" snow in NE Germany caused by showers kicking off over the Baltic Sea. For reference - the water temp there is about 2 degrees whereas the North Sea to our East is about 6-7 degrees. So extremely good conditions!

[steveinsussex]

MIGHT START TO GET EXCITED SOON

 

oops caps

[Ellozee]

Morning all! So, only 80 hours or so to go before the (drumroll) 'Deep Cold'. Fascinating to see how things develop towards and during the weekend. Great to see the clouds above scudding westwards and a real nip to the wind already. I don't want to compare this cold spell to anything else, weather events are all different anyway and it's great to appreciate beauty in the unique.. it's so close now you can almost see flakes drifting (I've not had enough sleep clearly)

[Snipper]

So much for taking the advice of some of the "experts" with their tearful cry that there would never ever be a cold winter again.

My seedlings and cuttings are well advanced in my greenhouse. Although it is partially heated it will not be sufficient for what might be incoming.  Looks like I am going to have to start from scratch, which will involve me replacing many if not all my stock plants. 

Just as well I have had a new compost bin delivered. Looks like I will be able to fill it up when this is over. 

[essex coast matt]

John kettley just been on BBC Essex ramping it up

[Southender]

1 minute ago, essex coast matt said:

John kettley just been on BBC Essex ramping it up

What did he have to say?

[SLEETY]

miss the old BBC weather forecasters they were so much more enthusiastic when snow and bitterly cold weather was on the way,

[E17boy]

Good morning great people Thursday morning and  it's Friday tomorrow. Hope everyone is feeling good ? 

if you re-call my post from Sunday I said I was going to wait till today to get excited. So we are here now and I must admit I felt the happiness in my heart when i saw that there's been an upgrade. I am a cm away from saying game is on but there is still 2 more days of loss sleep, tossing and turning and also the pain of sitting on the edge of that seat before I will tell my family. 

From where it stands this morning we are almost there and ithe conductor just said the train is running on time. What a journey so far and it's going to be one I am almost certainly going to remember for a long time. The best thing is all the sweet people in here with their ramps and laughs have made it all the better I admire you all its like our little family in here. 

We are just on the cusp of getting our dreams and wishes come true. The temperature is already dropping I noticed today and yesterday. I am sure our arrival schedule time on Sunday will be met with a red carpet the Siberian express is nearly there.

i wish you all a wonderful day and keep up the lovely posts and the humour. Let's keep our fingers crossed 2 more days we can make it no signal failures conductor.

kind regards ????

[SMU]

19 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Afternoon Guys:

So as of 06z today these are the following notables for our region & timelines

90% confidence now

Sat- Winds direct SE flow - dewpoints dropping as the day progresses circa -5c peak temps AM ~4c -afternoon temps pegging back early maybe 2c- maybe the outside chance of a flurry ( low )

Sun through the day- Winds backing more Easterly 

Approximate -10c isotherm times ( ahead of GFS ) 2pm Norfolk / East kent - 6pm London - Midnight to the shires

Spread is about 6 to 12 hours ( mainly slower not faster ) - UKMO raw the fastest with the fastest flow -

Sunday Eve Snow ?

This depends on final allignement & because its still 5 days away its still around     60% confidence 

However late eve - Benchmark maybe 8pm Snow showers will start pecking away at EA & Kent - Allignment at this stage is favoured 60% Thames streamer & Essex / Suffolk + London / shires later - 35% Mid kent streamer 5% East kent only - 

EA also included in slow 

*** Remember for widespread snow Thames flow is the best ***

By Monday the consensus is that there should be a window of 24 -36 hours where we peak on shower activity Spreading across the region

Conservative totals ( you have to put zero just incase ) 0-10cm - Up to 20cm in the peak shower zones.

**REMEMBER THIS IS ONLY DAY 1**

Post this things become more & more interesting - There may be a lull across weds ( with deep frost weds ) however attention turns to activity over Scandi as a wave moves west from Siberia -

The images below show the cold, but more impressive is the cold attached circa -28c ( follow the kink )

This kink & wave has a wide cone of where it could go - ( Think hurricane track & cone ) but at the moment the UK is at the centre point of the track in the mean Ensembles -

GEFS is a bullseye

This brings the chance of even more substantial snow & probably the peak of the cold - Thurs 

Estimates -15/16 air ( with an outside chance of -18c )

A real deep snow maker-

If not, still lots of snow around / troughs etc-

This would be my guesses at this stage which to be fair are pretty much just for fun ( all be it with a hint of reality )

London 2-4 inches

West of London 0-6inches depending on shower spread-

Essex / Kent - Suffolk / EA 3-18 Inches - again dependent on flow allignment.

Duration of cold ( starting Sat ) 7-14 days( 

S

 

 

 

Morning All

Not to much time to hand today - Going to the Souks market - about as interesting as watching paint dry - would rather gone to the atlas mountains-

Anyway 2 key changes today- All models have upgraded the flow & longivity of the. cold ( & indeed the depth ) with Thurs being the peak

Slight adjustment on timings ( later )

-10c isotherm - Norfolk / East kent sunday eve around 8pm & across the whole region by midnight-

If the flow maintains whats modelled then the snow will start & not.stop for some-

All snow estimates * could * be DOUBLED especially in the E & NE of the region with the jackpot zone maybe 30 inches up to close of play Thurs -

lowest max daytime temp suggested to be Thurs & -7c - again mid/ East kent.

Post that signals starting to develop of a snow event approaching from the south however ECM means keep it over France ATM -

S

[Southender]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning All

Not to much time to hand today - Going to the Souks market - about as interesting as watching paint dry - would rather gone to the atlas mountains-

Anyway 2 key changes today- All models have upgraded the flow & longivity of the. cold ( & indeed the depth ) with Thurs being the peak

Slight adjustment on timings ( later )

-10c isotherm - Norfolk / East kent sunday eve around 8pm & across the whole region by midnight-

If the flow maintains whats modelled then the snow will start & not.stop for some-

All snow estimates * could * be DOUBLED especially in the E & NE of the region with the jackpot zone maybe 30 inches up to close of play Thurs -

lowest max daytime temp suggested to be Thurs & -7c - again mid/ East kent.

Post that signals starting to develop of a snow event approaching from the south however ECM means keep it over France ATM -

S

Inches Steve?  

[Laurence Hill]

Thanks Steve, really look forward to your updates, brings a bit of sanity to the forum which is badly needed.  Too many people giving mis-information, sometimes intentionally.

[SMU]

4 minutes ago, Southender said:

Inches Steve?  

yes mate ~ 75cm.

Somewhere on the downs mid kent.( that will be if everything lines up perfect though )

Edited February 22, 2018 by Steve Murr

[SLEETY]

met office have an ice day for my location now on wed and  only 1c max mon and tues and a 25 mph nne wind,going to feel really bitterly cold in our region next week

[E17boy]

Hi Steve I am in n/e Londond Walthamstow do you think this part stands good in the firing line.

I travel to travel to Milton Keynes everyday lol ? so I could be impacted. 

Kind regads ?

[Tom Jarvis]

8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

yes mate ~ 75cm.

Somewhere on the downs mid kent.( that will be if everything lines up perfect though )

Possibly 40cm over the Ashdown forest? 

[Snowman31]

Have a feeling it will be nothing special here in NW London. Always miss the main shower activity 

[Weathizard]

Track and flow wise I'm not convincedn my location will benefit from the flow currently projected, ironically I think us down on the south coast could do with a more ESE flow with the short sea track we have available directly E/ENE

[SMU]

3 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:

Possibly 40cm over the Ashdown forest? 

yeah- you may well do better if winds just swing SE-

Walthamstow will get some -  being so close to the Thames !

[E17boy]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

yeah- you may well do better if winds just swing SE-

Walthamstow will get some -  being so close to the Thames !

Thanks Steve ?

[Snowman31]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

yeah- you may well do better if winds just swing SE-

Walthamstow will get some -  being so close to the Thames !

Anything you think for NW London by any chance Steve? 

[Lampostwatcher]

north London 10-15 inches by next sunday

[turkishfella]

Morning folks, I don't want to be the over-worried novice here but all my forecasting apps started showing cold but dry and sunny for next week for Brighton. Do you guys aware of any risk precipitation wise?

[throwoff]

Everything Steve is saying is music to my Medway ears!