SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

[snowray]

Darn, London area still 4/5c....why is it always so mild around London.

Those showers are coming in on an easterly.

[Donna3397]

Just stuck my head out the door before locking up and it’s freezing nearly caught frostbite seriously though it is freezing out there. When I saw the beeb weather report they said going to be above freezing during the night with cloud. Well they were wrong beautiful clear night, beautiful stars very white car. 

Mom a different note went to mad thread, wished I hadn’t. As a novice I like reading posts and gaining info but they are going for it. Downgraded. Upgrades. I’m really confused by the last set of models and what they’re showing now

[snowrye]

Dont worry,things are still on track,theres a few sleety snow showers showing up on radar,1 snow shower is only a few miles away from me

[Darkcloud]

6 minutes ago, snowrye said:

Dont worry,things are still on track,theres a few sleety snow showers showing up on radar,1 snow shower is only a few miles away from me

Blimey...Didn't think it would be worth checking the radar for a few days yet! Perhaps I'll take a peek!!

[lassie23]

1 hour ago, Snowflake Queen said:

Costco will have a fit at how much water I will buy tomorrow ... am Taking orders so let me know what u all want and I will bag it tomorrow   night all x

guess what i want, begins with B lol

[Bricriu]

I can barely contain my excitement for this.Sneachta is coming!!  By the way was it ever explained what was in that bucket that had to be cleaned for two hours

[Daniel*]

Your forecast of 2-4” for London sounds incredibly conservative to me Steve M I think there’s the potential for that to fall in 6 hours, and this potential is stretched out. While amazing for winter’s past 2013/2014 till now. It’s not like there’ll be any marginality GFS maxes are too high. South East London especially could be among hardest hit by near constant snowfall at times little interruption - the estuary can work wonders biggest snowfalls tend to sneak under radar so to speak.

Edited February 22, 2018 by Daniel*

[Bricriu]

• A great UKMO!! the core of the cold is further north. It's game on people!!

[Radiating Dendrite]

UKMO is a stunner - best run from that model in years!

GFS is good in the reliable also and then goes a bit crazy in FI.

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=102&mode=2

morning all if the gfs is right our snow starts monday and it could go as far 384 hr if that is right by friday east and south east could easily come to a halt

[Sidsnake]

Just out of interest although I know there is a Level One Cold Alert at the moment it would seem to me that a hell of a lot of folks really have no idea of this ever more probable bitter spell upcoming.  At what does it get to more robust warnings to Joe Public.  

[tinybill]

5 minutes ago, Sidsnake said:

Just out of interest although I know there is a Level One Cold Alert at the moment it would seem to me that a hell of a lot of folks really have no idea of this ever more probable bitter spell upcoming.  At what does it get to more robust warnings to Joe Public.  

same  here the trouble is they all think BBC   weather  is god  as i call it the Mr fish  effect they not calling , it  not to cause mass panic in the supermarkets

Edited February 22, 2018 by tinybill

[Sidsnake]

2 minutes ago, tinybill said:

same  here the trouble is they all think BBC is god  as i call it the Mr fish  effect they not calling  it to cause mass panic in the supermarkets

I'd be to agree with you.  Let's face it, those of us that follow the weather this closely are probably in the minority.  One of our neighbours is in her nineties and has meals on wheels and carers.  An older friend of mine lives right next door to her.  I'm just wondering if we should have a chat regarding next week and if this weather is going to be disruptive just how those meals on wheels and carers are going to get to her.  Maybe alternative provision needs to be made.. 

[Essexfish]

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

Level 2 cold weather alert issued by Met Office

[Sidsnake]

2 minutes ago, Essexfish said:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

Level 2 cold weather alert issued by Met Office

Thanks for that.... It might be how I'm reading it but it's almost as though there is a veiled warning in there that the Level threat will be rising further.  

[Justin123]

11 hours ago, yamkin said:

Intense SSW is in action & the models have picked this up, hence today's fluctuations. No need to be concerned as the current Beast From The East is still on course.

The SSW graph had to be extended to new parameters to accommodate the intensification of SSW. This intensification is the result of the energy from the recent CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) from the sun.

Thank you yamkin, I just suggested that maybe if it affected models before since yesterday and the few runs after that with variations that become slightly inconsistent between runs it may be due to that. As the second warming is currently happening. I know we have got the beast on the way!!

[Tom Quintavalle]

Morning all,

Couldn't sleep any longer, just had to come down and have a quick peek, at the early model runs.

That UKMO chart at t144, is a peach of a chart!! If that came to fruition, would expect some really beefy, snow showers, about our region.

 

-12c upper air temps, entering our region, coming into contact with the southern N.Sea/Thames Estuary temps, at around +7c, should be a snow maker. Please be right ,Met Office, we'll have to wait a few more days, before we can start to get really excited, though! As they often say, "more runs needed"

Regards,

Tom. 

[SLEETY]

models seem to be upgrading the cold for here as it starts to hit the reliable time frame ,normally it's the other way around,maybe the BBC might actually get on board too ,their forecasting of this upcoming cold spell has been dreadful so far

two days ago they were going for  dry all next week,I mean come on,the met office have talking about snow for what seems like ages for next week 

some of the professional forecasters who  use twitter including BBC and ex BBC weather forecasters  have been just as bad with their constant downplaying of the cold and saying France more likely to get cold with UK missing it

Looks like UK Met  Office smoked them all in the end.!!

Edited February 22, 2018 by SLEETY

[Tom Quintavalle]

The ECM at t144, is about as good as it gets. Another, "please be right, moment"!!

Regards,

Tom.  

[lassie23]

It's already cold, hope it doesn't get much colder

[shotski]

17 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

The ECM at t144, is about as good as it gets. Another, "please be right, moment"!!

Regards,

Tom.  

People were telling me the BBC would come into line come Thursday but there still not buying the extremes. High of 2 and low of -1 is about as cold as it gets according to them, temps up to 7 by Friday next week. We shall see. 

Edited February 22, 2018 by shotski

[lawrenk]

UKMO and ECM are awesome this morning and MO update remains rock solid for a lengthy cold spell.

Come on Yamkin, let’s have one of your specials!

[Chortle2001]

Would love to know when and what guidance Met Office have sent to local authorities etc about this spell. Anyone in a position to share what information they have been issued with as it might give us a little more insight into Met office thinking.

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

42 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Morning all,

Couldn't sleep any longer, just had to come down and have a quick peek, at the early model runs.

That UKMO chart at t144, is a peach of a chart!! If that came to fruition, would expect some really beefy, snow showers, about our region.

 

-12c upper air temps, entering our region, coming into contact with the southern N.Sea/Thames Estuary temps, at around +7c, should be a snow maker. Please be right ,Met Office, we'll have to wait a few more days, before we can start to get really excited, though! As they often say, "more runs needed"

Regards,

Tom. 

They are -14c not -12c  

[Jimmyh]

12 minutes ago, Chortle2001 said:

Would love to know when and what guidance Met Office have sent to local authorities etc about this spell. Anyone in a position to share what information they have been issued with as it might give us a little more insight into Met office thinking.

Yamkin does update us when he can as he works croydons roads