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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards


Captain Shortwave

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Day 6-10 I think Lassie :hi::rofl:

If we get expected watering down the Mad thread is going to be well ........................MAD

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Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Herts 115m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Surprises
  • Location: Welwyn Herts 115m ASL
25 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

i've just been cleaning a bucket for the past 2 hours, :blink2:where are we with the freeze up?

what did you put in a bucket that took two hours to clean up - I'm intrigued:crazy:

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

lol yes a strange comment.takes two hours to clean a bucket,what was in it that made you have to spend two hours to get rid of it,do tell everyone

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

Everything still on track this morning guys. Cold Easterly arriving over Sunday night and then plenty of snow opportunities throughout the week :)

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Great runs again this morning absolutely stunning I've told my lot how I'm working things 

Today is 70/30 day 70% that we will see deep cold 30% we won't

Tomorrow it will be 80/20 

Friday 90/10 

The funny thing is, the run up to Sunday bar some warmer temps Saturday is actually pretty cold compared to some weather we have seen this winter a patch of - 8 uppers drifts into the region tonight tomorrow and into Friday so certainly some hard frosts from tonight, I woke up to a light frost this morning! 

Last week I said D day was today and that's spot on, from today we are officially cold.. Albeit not brutal cold that is due Sunday. Just standard winter weather lovely jubbly! 

Also, Arpege brings cold air in Sunday morning and slowly brings in the much colder air over Sunday, expect first snow Sunday afternoon /Evening 

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Posted
  • Location: Crayford/Baker Street By Day
  • Location: Crayford/Baker Street By Day

Damn you RD i was just about to say the same. I will be pleased when this starts as woke up 3.30 went toilet checked the threads everything ok no downgrades only slight up ticks. Back to sleep ahhhh lol

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Posted
  • Location: Ampthill, Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Heat, Cold, Sun
  • Location: Ampthill, Bedfordshire

ECM disappointing this morning if it’s heavy snow and constant snow you want for next week (which most of us do, let’s not pretend)

ECM fantastic for very cold, dry and hard frosts for next week.

 

Edited by Ben Lewis
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Posted
  • Location: Ampthill, Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Heat, Cold, Sun
  • Location: Ampthill, Bedfordshire
10 minutes ago, Surrey said:

I don't get the mod thread lol! The ECM short term up to Monday is stonking again complaining about what it is showing 7 days in advance lol! 

I guess it's the northern lot moaning again 

They are posting what the run is showing.

Just like posting a snow bomb chart 7 days away. 

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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK

A lovely winter morning here, the cloud that has plagued the area has gone and it’s frosty with clear skies and a light NE’ly wind.

Models continue to churn out very good charts for a cold spell, some great consistency over the last few days with encouraging Met Office updates. Hopefully, this will be a spell to remember with plenty of snow, but cold and sunny would be a good second, imo. A blizzard would, of course, be quite exciting and I’d be a child again lol.

Edited by stainesbloke
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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

I'm planning to stick to the regional thread now. The Mad thread will now switch to hyper sensitive breakdown mode given the initial cold is now pretty much a given. 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds (Roundhay) 135m
  • Location: Leeds (Roundhay) 135m

Yes, a good set of models runs. Nowhere near as immense as yesterdays 6z GFS, but still good enough for plenty of snow chances (and not all convective). Some runs are better than others for widespread snow showers (GEM and UKMO), but on Tuesday most develop a small feature traversing south west which delivers a more organise period of snow. One to keep an eye on as we head towards the weekend.   

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Posted
  • Location: Rye East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: snow (but who doesnt like that)
  • Location: Rye East Sussex

Very hard frost this morning but of a shock because no mention of that on apps (I know) but it’s nice to see the sun again

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Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snowy Weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.

Morning all,

Well models still looking good, for delivering the "beast", later on Sunday, on into next week.

If those predicted 850s of circa -12c or so, come to fruition, flowing over the southern North Sea/Thames Estuary ( with surface temps, around +7c, and with a favourable, direction of flow, there could well be some beefy, snow showers about. Wouldn't be surprised if there's some "thundersnow", about, for some locations, a la Feb 2009.

Dartford, Feb 2009.

 

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

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Posted
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL

Morning

Chillier than I was expecting this morning at 1c and a light frost at home.

Currently partly cloudy and 2c at work.

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
41 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

When will the hi-res models start to bring this into view? Tomorrow?

Here's how far out the various High Res models go, so Icon UK just picking up Sunday. All available on Meteociel from the list on the left and the UK flag! http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon-eu.php?map=510

Icon 120 hrs
Arpege 114 hrs
NMM 72 hrs
Hirlam 48 hrs
Arome 42 hrs

9 minutes ago, DonnaThw said:

I think this is sounding ok

BC8CC975-8093-4D60-96B4-7DE2B38511BD.png

Hi Donna. Yes, this week is getting colder with maybe some flurries by Sunday. But our main interest is next week with the VERY cold air arriving Monday and (hopefully!) some beefy snow showers kicking in later Monday into Tuesday.

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Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent 75 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Storms
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent 75 asl

Very happy with this mornings model output....cold frosty and with a bit of extra luck....SNOW

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