SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

[E17boy]

1 minute ago, Surrey said:

Quality lol

Hi peeps hope you are ok. I just went into panic mode there when I heard about the MOD thread. I have stopped myself going on there purely for the fact of some comments that can take a different meaning of the models. 

Can I still sit down and relax and safely say there is no need to panic no downgrades yet? 

I have been sitting on the edge of my seat so tense ? 

regards ????

[Jimmyh]

Just now, D.V.R said:

Its been downgraded for the whole country.. We ideally want colder uppers for this time of year.

What has??

[NO LONGER POSTING]

5 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

Its been downgraded for the whole country.. We ideally want colder uppers for this time of year.

Have you seen the recent uppers on the GFS? 

T 132

-10 LINE on the east coast

T144

-15 line makes landfall 

GFS is also one of the "warmer" outcomes with some models even colder.. 

That's sufficient cold to set off amazing lake effect snow

When was the last time you could say that amount of cold was within the reliable lol 

I guess colder weather is not to your fancy? 

 

[seb]

Also, all but one of ensembles don’t agree with the op run.

[Gowon]

1 minute ago, seb said:

It’s absolutely fine as it is. Really don’t understand the panic. 

It's fine if you like snow grains.. We have to agree to disagree, but gloomy cold end of Feb/ heading into March days just don't do it for me

 

[Katrine Basso]

1 hour ago, Badgers01 said:

It’s been horrible last 2 days hasn’t it - dry cold is the best thing for rheumatoid type pain can’t wait for the lower dew points and dry cracking air - might start seeing signs of it by end of today ..??

I am also looking for the dry cold weather as my joint pain lessens and my energy levels increase. According to my mobile phone tomorrow is a  minimum of 2C and a maximum of 6C, but Thursday and Friday will have minimum and maximum temperatures of 0C  and 2C/3C.

[Crystal Memories]

Quite ballsy to bring the Blizard word up already for east Kent  https://www.worldweatheronline.com/deal-weather/kent/gb.aspx?day=6 

[Laurence Hill]

4 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Have you seen the recent uppers on the GFS? 

T 132

-10 LINE on the east coast

T144

-15 line makes landfall 

GFS is also one of the "warmer" outcomes with some models even colder.. 

That's sufficient cold to set off amazing lake effect snow

When was the last time you could say that amount of cold was within the reliable lol 

I guess colder weather is not to your fancy? 

 

Hi Surrey, can you explain what “lake effect snow” is and how it would impact us.  Thanks.

[Gowon]

2 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Have you seen the recent uppers on the GFS? 

T 132

-10 LINE on the east coast

T144

-15 line makes landfall 

GFS is also one of the "warmer" outcomes with some models even colder.. 

That's sufficient cold to set off amazing lake effect snow

When was the last time you could say that amount of cold was within the reliable lol 

I guess colder weather is not to your fancy? 

 

I'd like cold associated with a lot of snow at this time of the year

[KDME]

23 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Same old people moaning in the mod thread and not very educated on reading models it would seem. 

Stella runs again this afternoon for cold, albeit the north stays a little bit drier.. 

The best winter weather in years starting from tomorrow and people are moaning lol! Yes that's correct, the colder weather sets in tomorrow and we steadily get colder.. 

Phew!  I thought I had jinxed it all by placing an order for a bag of gritting salt ...

[Flaked Queen]

3 hours ago, turkishfella said:

Hi guys, what is the chance of good snow showers for Brighton on Sunday night and Monday? Or again are we going to see snow for Scotland and northern parts of the country?

Also, do you guys think we can get sea effect snow as the very cold air moving from the east and I checked sea tempratures they are warmer than the air.

Don’t ask that question in the big boy and girls thread lol ... snow everywhere me thinks ... lassie will be able to tell you on here ?

[Justin123]

So guys quick question, this secondary spike of a smaller SSW, could this affect the models briefly again with the the upcoming runs? It did before and as it has been happening today and is currently happening could cause a bit of confusion to the output, lesser than of late but still could bring forward false downgrades vice Versa. 

[yamkin]

 

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Lake effect snow requires 3 key ingredients 

1) cold air, the colder the better 

2) A big body of water, the bigger the better also it needs to be "warm" current SSTs around 5-6 perfect 

3) lower pressure, with the correct on shore wind direction 

Lake effect snow takes place because the cold air travelling over warmer waters begins to pick up moisture. As the clouds begin to build upwards thanks to such a steep temperature gradient through the atmosphere and at the surface it allows cloud heights to increase upwards sometimes to the height of thunderstorms hence you get thundersnow. Along with a few other factors like lapse rates which aid in convective lift you start to get heavy snowfall within those areas affected. 

Most of the time it appears in lines or streamers as we call them where the body of water is longer and straighter inland slightly (Thames Eastery) or where there could be geographical lift or convergence of winds. 

There are lots of micro factors that you get after the 3 top main ones that can dramatically effect where snow may fall. 2 miles away could be buried while you watch the huge towering clouds from a distance 

[Gowon]

3 minutes ago, yamkin said:

 

 

The GEFS are lower resolution so they're not good at picking up these developing shortwaves.. 

[Laurence Hill]

9 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Lake effect snow requires 3 key ingredients 

1) cold air, the colder the better 

2) A big body of water, the bigger the better also it needs to be "warm" current SSTs around 5-6 perfect 

3) lower pressure, with the correct on shore wind direction 

Lake effect snow takes place because the cold air travelling over warmer waters begins to pick up moisture. As the clouds begin to build upwards thanks to such a steep temperature gradient through the atmosphere and at the surface it allows cloud heights to increase upwards sometimes to the height of thunderstorms hence you get thundersnow. Along with a few other factors like lapse rates which aid in convective lift you start to get heavy snowfall within those areas affected. 

Most of the time it appears in lines or streamers as we call them where the body of water is longer and straighter inland slightly (Thames Eastery) or where there could be geographical lift or convergence of winds. 

There are lots of micro factors that you get after the 3 top main ones that can dramatically effect where snow may fall. 2 miles away could be buried while you watch the huge towering clouds from a distance 

Thanks Surrey, so this could be good for us if it comes to pass.

[Ben Lewis]

The charts over the past few days have churned out spectacular runs, something we have been able to compare to those great ‘winters’ 

Today sees the GFS 12z squeeze out those amazing uppers we’ve seen modelled run after run. 

Of Course -9/-10 uppers is still outstanding, however the negative mood in the Mod thread is to be expected when there is a slight downgrade = I don’t know why any of you are so shocked by this. It comes naturally year after year... it’s part of the game. 

Anyway let’s hope the GFS pub run gets those -15/-16 uppers back over us for this time next week. 

As I’m sure all would agree, we don’t want to see the HP pressurise the continental feed further and see the uppers edge down on the GFS or any model in future runs.

GEM/Arpege 12’s - let’s hope they revert back from the pesky shortwave 

UKMO is a beaut 

 

Edited February 20, 2018 by Ben Lewis

[yamkin]

10 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

The GEFS are lower resolution so they're not good at picking up these developing shortwaves.. 

Nothing to worry about. All looking good 

[JennyJane1]

30 minutes ago, Crystal Memories said:

Quite ballsy to bring the Blizard word up already for east Kent  https://www.worldweatheronline.com/deal-weather/kent/gb.aspx?day=6 

And for great yarmouth, it says the snow starts here at 4pm on sunday then doesnt stop for over a week

[Gowon]

1 minute ago, yamkin said:

Nothing to worry about. All looking good 

I hope so.. We've been through this too many times with these shortwaves popping up from nowhere 

[yamkin]

Long range forecast for the UK over the next 6-30 days - Updated: 15:02 on Tue 20 Feb 2018 GMT

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days 
UK Outlook for Sunday 25 Feb 2018 to Tuesday 6 Mar 2018:
Sunday will be dry but cold for many, with some sunny spells. Snow showers may develop across eastern and southern areas where fresh winds will make it feel bitterly cold. Through next week it is likely to become even colder with strong easterly winds, bringing an increasing threat of snow showers. These will be heaviest and most frequent in central and eastern areas, and some spells of more prolonged snow are possible at times, particularly in the east but also perhaps in parts of the south and southwest. The cold weather will continue through the rest of the period, with the northwest seeing the best of any brighter weather, and here it may be less cold at times, although brisk winds will continue to bring a marked wind chill.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 7 Mar 2018 to Wednesday 21 Mar 2018: 
At the start of this period it is likely to remain cold or very cold for many with widespread frost and brisk easterly winds from Continental Europe, making it feel raw. This will continue to bring the risk of significant snow across some southern, eastern and central parts of the country, whereas towards the north and west it will be drier. As we head through the middle of March, there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast, but it may start to turn more unsettled and less cold with the wettest and mildest weather spreading in from the southwest. In contrast, northern and eastern areas could remain colder well into March

Edited February 20, 2018 by yamkin

[Bogman]

There are a few drama queens about this afternoon. 

[Crystal Memories]

9 minutes ago, JennyJane1 said:

And for great yarmouth, it says the snow starts here at 4pm on sunday then doesnt stop for over a week

We can only live in hope  

[pureasthedriven]

8 minutes ago, yamkin said:

Long range forecast for the UK over the next 6-30 days - Updated: 15:02 on Tue 20 Feb 2018 GMT

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days 
UK Outlook for Sunday 25 Feb 2018 to Tuesday 6 Mar 2018:
Sunday will be dry but cold for many, with some sunny spells. Snow showers may develop across eastern and southern areas where fresh winds will make it feel bitterly cold. Through next week it is likely to become even colder with strong easterly winds, bringing an increasing threat of snow showers. These will be heaviest and most frequent in central and eastern areas, and some spells of more prolonged snow are possible at times, particularly in the east but also perhaps in parts of the south and southwest. The cold weather will continue through the rest of the period, with the northwest seeing the best of any brighter weather, and here it may be less cold at times, although brisk winds will continue to bring a marked wind chill.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 7 Mar 2018 to Wednesday 21 Mar 2018: 
At the start of this period it is likely to remain cold or very cold for many with widespread frost and brisk easterly winds from Continental Europe, making it feel raw. This will continue to bring the risk of significant snow across some southern, eastern and central parts of the country, whereas towards the north and west it will be drier. As we head through the middle of March, there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast, but it may start to turn more unsettled and less cold with the wettest and mildest weather spreading in from the southwest. In contrast, northern and eastern areas could remain colder well into March

Yes - southern and eastern areas removed and replaced with ‘central and eastern’ and ‘especially eastern’ areas with the south mentioned as ‘perhaps’. Sure we’ll see snow here but definitely a shift in emphasis from the METO wrt snowfall. A touch disappointing albeit early days. 

[Jimmyh]

Dont think that is anything to worry about above.