SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

[beng]

I'm no fan of the BBC - it's output has become so dumbed down over the years, however on this occasion I think we have to remember that there's a significant cluster in the ECM ensembles that raise pressure over the UK and keep the lowest thicknesses South of the UK.  Whilst this cluster currently has no real backing from any of the other models that we see, the Beeb are probably right to wait another day before going too big on the Snow word.

Maybe if that cluster is hugely reduced tonight, we might see them become a lot more bullish; on the other hand if the number of members in that cluster suddenly increases, then they're going to be relieved they didn't go all in snow.

If they weren't so dumbed down though, they would be giving out percentage risks - e.g. 60% chance of disruptive snowfall next week as things stand etc.

 

[yamkin]

6 minutes ago, snowblind said:

Maybe the beeb will be correct, we just don't know yet but it seems odd not to mention the risk.

I thought someone posted the other day that they are using a lower resolution version of the ECM, so maybe it's not very good at picking up convection.

BBC's so called 'Dry' forecast for next week does not tie in with the the MetO's latest written forecast

[Badgers01]

5 hours ago, Katrine Basso said:

It is the second day of moderate to heavy rainfall for Thurrock. The dampness in the air is affecting me badly as I am experiencing a lot of pain in my joints, more than usual.

It’s been horrible last 2 days hasn’t it - dry cold is the best thing for rheumatoid type pain can’t wait for the lower dew points and dry cracking air - might start seeing signs of it by end of today ..??

[Gowon]

1 hour ago, turkishfella said:

Hi guys, what is the chance of good snow showers for Brighton on Sunday night and Monday? Or again are we going to see snow for Scotland and northern parts of the country?

Also, do you guys think we can get sea effect snow as the very cold air moving from the east and I checked sea tempratures they are warmer than the air.

Brighton usually does good in this set up.. plus your location is good for sliders too.

I would keep checking in here for more updates nearer the time

[Methuselah]

40 minutes ago, PLANET THANET said:

frostbite on the extremities  ouch !!

Chilly Willy? 

[PLANET THANET]

1 hour ago, Frostbite1980 said:

I will run round my local park with my pants on my head!

snow balls would take on a whole different meaning 

[turkishfella]

31 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

Brighton usually does good in this set up.. plus your location is good for sliders too.

I would keep checking in here for more updates nearer the time

thanks @D.V.R nobody believes me here in the office in Brighton. They tell me Brighton wouldn't snow because it's by the sea. How shallow their weather forecasting knowledge

[Snowpuff]

I doubt we will see pure dry cold. Im fully expecting convection off of the north sea. Although sea surface temperatures are at a low this time of year, the 850 temps are really truly bitter, and I believe this will contribute to some decent convection. 

With any luck it will be at least as good as 2013. 12z Gfs was still epic, even more epic was the 12z UKMO which had deep cold breaching our shores by sunday lunchtime! 

Bbc and Met office have tweeted about snow risk in the last hour or so.

Winter is coming!! 

[Frostbite1980]

1 minute ago, Snowpuff said:

I doubt we will see pure dry cold. Im fully expecting convection off of the north sea. Although sea surface temperatures are at a low this time of year, the 850 temps are really truly bitter, and I believe this will contribute to some decent convection. 

With any luck it will be at least as good as 2013. 12z Gfs was still epic, even more epic was the 12z UKMO which had deep cold breaching our shores by sunday lunchtime! 

Bbc and Met office have tweeted about snow risk in the last hour or so.

Winter is coming!! 

And you are in one of the best places to get the convective snowfall you lucky begger  

[Tom Jarvis]

Will the convection of the sea reach my location in Sussex. Cannot remember weather the showers off the last easterly reached here. 

[lassie23]

Panic in mod thread, -9 uppers instead of -20

[Frostbite1980]

5 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:

Will the convection of the sea reach my location in Sussex. Cannot remember weather the showers off the last easterly reached here. 

Easily if the wind direction is good. I would say an E/NE wind would suit you best 

[Snowpuff]

I only ever see snow from a decent easterly! My youngest kid has never built a snow man. I also live right on a clifftop above the beach, rarely any frost let alone settling snow. 

It looks like the cold is coming for sure now. How deep and how significant any snowfall is going to be is a guess I am not educated enough to make.

I think most in the South east have a good chance this time though. I guess it will become clearer in the next couple of days! 

[PLANET THANET]

Just now, lassie23 said:

Panic in mod thread, -9 uppers instead of -20

also a lot of imbyism from the members north of the country

[yamkin]

Looks like BBC Weather have put to bed Susan Powell's earlier 'Dry Next Week' forecast 

 

Edited February 20, 2018 by yamkin

[Snowpuff]

At least we are pretty safe here! If the cold drops south a bit towards the continent we are still in the firing line. North of the M4 have had their time.

It's our turn!!! 

[Ben Lewis]

2 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Panic in mod thread, -9 uppers instead of -20

-9 modelled on the 12z instead of -15uppers on the 6’s 

Nothing to joke about, that high pressure is literally putting pressure on the continental feed. 

Not a trend we want to see when let’s face it, is still 7 days away when the potential for -15 uppers to come in. 

 

[Gowon]

Shortwaves restricts the coldest uppers travelling west.. we knew it would happen

 

[seb]

1 minute ago, D.V.R said:

Shortwaves restricts the coldest uppers travelling west.. we knew it would happen

 

Only over the North.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Same old people moaning in the mod thread and not very educated on reading models it would seem. 

Stella runs again this afternoon for cold, albeit the north stays a little bit drier.. 

The best winter weather in years starting from tomorrow and people are moaning lol! Yes that's correct, the colder weather sets in tomorrow and we steadily get colder.. 

[Jimmyh]

yes I have just stirred it up with the imbyism comments

[NO LONGER POSTING]

1 minute ago, Jimmyh said:

yes I have just stirred it up with the imbyism comments

Quality lol

[Gowon]

2 minutes ago, seb said:

Only over the North.

Its been downgraded for the whole country.. We ideally want colder uppers for this time of year.

[Katrine Basso]

Wivensworld I hope your arthritis pain subsided and were able to go to your Rheumatoid Arthritis appointment. The weather has finally become drier but it is still overcast. I am looking forwarded to drier weather as I have washing on the line. I have watched the latest video from Gavin Partridge on YouTube and he said that the 'Beast from the East' is still on.  Temperatures will get colder from either Sunday or Monday.

[seb]

3 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

Its been downgraded for the whole country.. We ideally want colder uppers for this time of year.

It’s absolutely fine as it is. Really don’t understand the panic.