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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards


Captain Shortwave

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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
13 minutes ago, mishy said:

This surely can't go pear shaped now? Can it?!?:nonono::D

 

It can and usually does. Looking increasingly like a notable cold spell is coming, though.

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Posted
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL
5 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Oh it can, have seen them go wrong at T72 :reindeer-emoji:

I wonder if it’ll happen this time...

I think if it gets to Thursday and we’re seeing similar (although I’m sure watered down by then) runs then I’ll genuinely start thinking about stocking up a little. 

Being in a village on the Downs you tend to get stuck for a day or two if you get drifting, as happened in 2010!

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Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
1 minute ago, Uxbridge90 said:

Going to be some real grumpy people when this gets watered down. 

On the other hand, the models may just go for upgrades instead

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

Only one way the models can go when they are this good and in line with each other...2 days time and they continue like this then I'd be a believer.

GFS 18z brings a week of severe weather...

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Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
58 minutes ago, Dbarb said:

Just thought about all the homeless people we see now in our towns and how they will survive. I remember walking through Chelmsford on a chilly night and they where all so cold and shivering. What will they do?

Emergency shelters will be opened due to the severe threat of the oncoming beast from the east

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Posted
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
43 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

I wonder if it’ll happen this time...

I think if it gets to Thursday and we’re seeing similar (although I’m sure watered down by then) runs then I’ll genuinely start thinking about stocking up a little. 

Being in a village on the Downs you tend to get stuck for a day or two if you get drifting, as happened in 2010!

The best resemblance i can make for the synoptics  in this event is 2010, a nice SSW and the cold was seen well ahead and ran into us nice and smoothly with no watering down, since then yes we have had many awful failures, but none have had what we are seeing once again and this time its an SSW for the history books, will this lead to history making weather for us? I really don't know!!.............Gonna be fun watching though.:cold:

I think sometimes 2010 made newcomers to this funny game we play, think that it was all so easy, when in reality its ruddy hard:)

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Posted
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL
1 minute ago, Chris101 said:

The best resemblance i can make for the synoptics  in this event is 2010, a nice SSW and the cold was seen well ahead and ran into us nice and smoothly with no watering down, since then yes we have had many awful failures, but none have had what we are seeing once again and this time its an SSW for the history books, will this lead to history making weather for us? I really don't know!!.............Gonna be fun watching though.:cold:

I think sometimes 2010 made newcomers to this funny game we play, think that it was all so easy, when in reality its ruddy hard:)

It’s a tiring hobby, that’s for sure! 

Going back to the BBC snow watch board days, at least they had a curfew so all us weather nuts couldn’t be up until the small hours like we are now  :lazy:

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

My Twitter has been crazy lately definitely today or now yesterday a major uptick in interest in this beast from the east probably following beeb being more bullish. Sit back, and watch unfold for once? 

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Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland
33 minutes ago, Chris101 said:

The best resemblance i can make for the synoptics  in this event is 2010, a nice SSW and the cold was seen well ahead and ran into us nice and smoothly with no watering down, since then yes we have had many awful failures, but none have had what we are seeing once again and this time its an SSW for the history books, will this lead to history making weather for us? I really don't know!!.............Gonna be fun watching though.:cold:

I think sometimes 2010 made newcomers to this funny game we play, think that it was all so easy, when in reality its ruddy hard:)

I don't think there was a SSW  prior to the cold outbreak in 2010

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
10 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

I don't think there was a SSW  prior to the cold outbreak in 2010

Yep I believe so I think there was one though and and it scuppered the cold from extending into January. In the position of where we are now we needed a ‘reset’ to get out the rut of powerful vortex and westerly momentum. 

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Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
37 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

I don't think there was a SSW  prior to the cold outbreak in 2010

https://www.rmets.org/sites/default/files/pdf/presentation/20110205-blackburn.pdf

 

Quote

The winter of 2009-2010 was marked by a significant stratospheric warming event peaking in the end of January 2010. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland
1 hour ago, Neilsouth said:

Ah i got the winters mixed up, The winter of 2009-2010 had a ssw.   The following winter, which also had a notable cold period, did not

Edited by Bricriu
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Morning All

Off on hols now- will be dropping in though -

As of today 04:30z the best & coldest overnight runs ever modelled since the dawn of the internet with the best highlighted below...

31F0552B-EA20-4D3D-9B36-028655257F20.thumb.png.f56b163b719fc7bb36f5807860cf67e9.png

S

Edited by Steve Murr
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Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham
  • Location: Cheltenham
21 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning All

Off on hols now- will be dropping in though -

As of today 04:30z the best & coldest overnight runs ever modelled since the dawn of the internet with the best highlighted below...

31F0552B-EA20-4D3D-9B36-028655257F20.thumb.png.f56b163b719fc7bb36f5807860cf67e9.png

S

Enjoy your holiday Steve

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

in deep  shock  bbc  now talking about siberia  winds  with big wind chill and snow and with the gfs going to deep 384 hr!!

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

Speechless. GEM would likely cripple infrastructure and I don’t exaggerate.
As it stands the least-severe result will be temperatures around freezing by day for a few days and some areas getting enough snow to cause disruption to road and rail travel into next week.
The worst-case scenario? Sub-zero maxima with periods of drifting snow and severe frosts. Severe disruption, road travel not possible, power supply issues.
I would be very surprised if advanced warnings were not issued later today or tomorrow morning to start preparing.

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Posted
  • Location: Crowborough, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow in winter, hot and sunny in summer
  • Location: Crowborough, East Sussex

Couldn’t sleep, so had a cup of tea and looked at the models. Just placed grocery order for delivery.... tinned things, candles, bottled water. As soon as my mum is awake I’m going to organise one for her too, she’s almost 70 so I don’t want her worrying about running out of food. 

There, that’s probably jinxed it. 

Although actually despite spending the last ten years desperate for this weather I’m now a bit scared! 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Home = Haywards Heath. Work = Burgess Hill
  • Weather Preferences: snow, storms or both at same time..
  • Location: Home = Haywards Heath. Work = Burgess Hill

How exciting :) 

It's looks like proper cold is 100% coming next week.

What sort of temperatures are we expecting over night next week in southeast away from London?

This will be a real test for me and my cars, I've converted both my Toyota Hilux and BMW 5 series to run on used cooking oil (cooking oil sets solid around -6c) , I been doing this since 2006 but in 2009-2010 I lived on the coast in Peacehaven East Sussex, so wasn't quite as cold as it could of been. Now I live in Haywards heath which is 15 miles inland and the other side of the south downs, so I expect this next week will be the coldest I've ever had to deal with since running on used cooking oil.

My Hilux has some new aggressive Mud/Snow tyres fitted, so it's ready for this :) 

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Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds

No apologies for posting a 10 day chart, I’m just trying to illustrate how long lasting the cold could be. 

Could be a memorable few weeks. 

387AF231-6808-4258-8308-1EAFEA794885.png

17D88C93-699F-4661-88FB-EEE5A2AFDFAA.png

8B1E03C3-AAC5-4603-8611-6626C74E8630.png

Edited by shotski
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Posted
  • Location: Crayford/Baker Street By Day
  • Location: Crayford/Baker Street By Day

Omg i cant seruously believe what i am seeing its just utter weather porn. This will or at least will make the cabinet and cobra meet. I have been weather watching in earnest for 15 years on here since 2009. Addicted is another word for it. Start warning your elderly loved ones please my mum is 80 amd lives in a flat on top of sanderstead hill. I am going to advise her to fill up her freezer now. You may call it sensationalistic but this will last longer than 1991.

Yes this is a total ramp but i can see no back down on the models for the last 6 days 

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