SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

[Flaked Queen]

Wait till thursday ... if it’s all go still by then “PANIC BUY “ everything even hay and bounty bars 

Edited February 19, 2018 by Snowflake Queen

[KDME]

3 minutes ago, Snowflake Queen said:

Wait till thrursday ... if it’s all go still by then “PANIC BUY “ everything even hay and bounty bars 

If everything is sold out - it is your fault!!  

I bet the hardware stores who have been stuck with the snow shovels they purchased in 2011 are rubbing their hands in glee ...

Edited February 19, 2018 by Weather_Novice

[Sidsnake]

2 minutes ago, Snowflake Queen said:

Wait till thrursday ... if it’s all go still by then “PANIC BUY “ everything even hay and bounty bars 

Hay coming today... Online GROCERIES on Saturday night.... Time to order sheep nuts!!!! ????????

[Flaked Queen]

Just now, Weather_Novice said:

If everything is sold out - it is your fault!!  

Don’t worry I know a man with a secret shop  god that sounds bad lol !! Yes blame me 

[JennyJane1]

4 minutes ago, Snowflake Queen said:

Wait till thursday ... if it’s all go still by then “PANIC BUY “ everything even hay and bounty bars 

Where can I buy a three-legged cat?

[Flaked Queen]

1 minute ago, Sidsnake said:

Hay coming today... Online GROCERIES on Saturday night.... Time to order sheep nuts!!!! ????????

Or we could all gather at yours ? Sleep on the hay eating nuts ?

[Flaked Queen]

1 minute ago, JennyJane1 said:

Where can I buy a three-legged cat?

Ask lassie 

[lassie23]

12 minutes ago, JennyJane1 said:

Where can I buy a three-legged cat?

you get a discount for obvious reasons

[danm]

36 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Given the sheer consistency of the GFS to bring that sub -10C T850 cold pool across the whole of the UK, you’d have to assume the EC will have to shift further north with cold pool on the 12z later, as the deep cold pool only side swipes the SE on the 00z. 

A nail-biting long wait until all the 12z output is out to be certain the GFS is not leading us up the garden path!

Let's hope so!

[JennyJane1]

7 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

you get a discount for obvious reasons

Its ok, i just realised, i would buy one from a cat-alogue.

[claret047]

4 hours ago, terryall said:

Just for fun I just ran the gfs snow risk for the South East and as from next Sunday it shows a week of snow. If that were true the South East will be crippled transport wise which could also mean supplies to shops and supermarkets being compromised. Could this be true?

Hello Terry.

I am not totally believing the models at the moment. The way I am going to tell if we in the southeast are going to be snowed in is to hear if the supermarket that @markwheeler runs has upped their order on salt and brought in sledges and shovels for sale, as well as increasing his order in soup and other cold weather foodstuff.

Mark where are you under an avalanche of soup tins?

Kind Regards

Dave

[lassie23]

55 minutes ago, Sidsnake said:

Hay coming today... Online GROCERIES on Saturday night.... Time to order sheep nuts!!!! ????????

You are making it very hard for me to post sensibly

[tomp456]

Even if the high res models were predicting a blizzard in 3 hours, I still won't believe it. 

[Pixel]

I nearly fell off my chair when i saw this in the Strat model

 

[SMU]

Yess back on M25 territory & home for 1 day - off to marrakech tomorrow !

The models are in pretty much solid agreement - although the ECM just unsettles the apple cart slightly-

There cold be some snow flurries this week thurs / Fri then dry again as the winds drop SE for a day-

The invasion of the cold is predicted overnight Sat-

Im back sat 11:40 PM - but have free wifi so will be online following developments-

Current ENS mean for he SE is -12c although many get to -14c line- so spectacular for late winter- 

If I was to stab at when *Potentially* our best window is - it would be Sun DAY - out till Tues - then post that we need a few more days modelling to see what the flow looks like in terms of any waves coming out lf the continent or Iberia... 

S

[throwoff]

Looking at the models I think we could be in for a bit of a swing and a miss Friday into the weekend. Perhaps some small flurries but nothing major. At which point I expect toys to be thrown from prams at previously unheard of speeds all over the forums. 

Then as we get into Sunday and the evening comes in we could really see some significant snowfall.

[lawrenk]

Well according to latest MO update (posted elsewhere on the forum),almost unbelievably, this looks like a further upgrade!

Going to try my best not to tell friends/family till Thursday’ish. You’d imagine, if it’s going to happen, the media will be all over it by then anyway!

[JennyJane1]

29 minutes ago, Pixel said:

I nearly fell off my chair when i saw this in the Strat model

 

What is it?

[Bogman]

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Saturday 24 Feb 2018 to Monday 5 Mar 2018:

The weekend will be mostly dry, with frost and freezing fog patches clearing to give cold days with sunny spells. Snow flurries may develop across eastern and southern areas where a brisk easterly wind will make it feel bitterly cold. It may be less cold in the far northwest with some rain possible. Into next week it is likely to turn colder with brisk easterly winds, giving a significant wind chill, especially in the south and east. This will give the risk of further snow flurries, which may become heavier and more widespread. There is also the risk of more significant snow pushing northeastwards across southern and some central areas. The north and west will be brighter, and it may be less cold across the far northwest at times.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 6 Mar 2018 to Tuesday 20 Mar 2018:

At the start of this period it is likely to remain cold or very cold for many with widespread frost and brisk easterly winds from Continental Europe, making it feel raw. This will continue to bring the risk of significant snow across some southern, eastern and central parts of the country, whereas towards the north and west it will start drier. As we head through the middle of March, there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast, but it may start to turn more unsettled and less cold with the wettest and mildest weather spreading in from the southwest. In contrast, northern and eastern areas could remain colder well into March.

Updated: 02:09 on Mon 19 Feb 2018 GMT

 

 

Bugger

[saint]

It's always nice to visit the forum and see talk of cold and snowy weather, although I don't think I could cope with waiting for every model run at the moment! I'm trying to stay as a fairly distant observer, for now... 

[danm]

Press Release from Met Office re upcoming cold spell:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2018/conditions-turning-colder-later-in-the-week

Conditions turning col

Conditions turning colder later in the week

19th February 2018

After a mild start to the week, conditions will get colder later in the week with wind chill playing a key part in the south.

The UK will start the week in a small sector of mild air with temperatures as high as 14°C in some parts of the west. These milder conditions will be short lived though as high pressure begins to dominate by the middle of the week, eventually allowing an easterly flow to bring in cold air from Eastern Europe over the weekend.

Chief Meteorologist Andy Page, said: “High pressure will become established across the UK by the middle of this week bringing settled weather for most, but also some frosty nights. However, as the high drifts east to be over Scandinavia by the weekend, it will allow colder air from Eastern Europe to be drawn towards us. The cold easterly wind will bring an element of wind chill which will make it feel colder in the south.”

There are signs that this cold spell is likely to last well into next week with possibly even colder air from Russia moving across the UK. Although there is a very low risk of snow this week because of the dry nature of the air, this could change the other side of the weekend.

Dr Thomas Waite, of Public Health England’s Extreme Events team, said: “With the days feeling a little longer and lighter it can be easy to forget that cold weather can still kill.

“Over 65s, those with conditions like heart and lung diseases and young children, are all at particular risk in cold weather as their bodies struggle to cope when temperatures fall. So before it gets cold check on friends, family and neighbours, who may be at risk and make sure they’re heating homes to at least 18C, see if they need any particular help or just someone to talk to and keep an eye on the Met Office’s forecasts and warnings. Remember keeping warm will help keep you well.”

The incursion of these cold conditions is linked to a meteorological event that has happened high up in the Stratosphere over the North Pole. A Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event occurred last week which after a lag period can have implications to our weather in Northern Europe.

Prof Adam Scaife, of the Met Office Hadley Centre, explained: “Signs of this event appeared in forecasts from late January and last week we saw a dramatic rise in air temperature of around 50°C, known as a Sudden Stratospheric Warming, at around 30km above the North Pole. This warming results from a breakdown of the usual high-altitude westerly winds and it often leads to a switch in our weather: with cold easterly conditions more likely to dominate subsequent UK weather.”

These events are well reproduced and can be predicted in our computer models. There are signs that the recent Sudden Stratospheric Warming above the North Pole could lead to prolonged cold conditions over the UK that could last into March.

[lassie23]

28 minutes ago, JennyJane1 said:

What is it?

someone dropped a glass of water on a map of the world

[tinybill]

2 hours ago, SLEETY said:

Bbc weather online  just now,winds from Siberia next week turn bitter with snow

looks like it’s game on time to prepare 

Got the last bag out of bq on saterday!,

[Snowy Bob]

I will only believe it when I can't see outside my window. 

[Lampostwatcher]

WINTERFELL is coming 

blizzards freezing temperatures from Friday onwards lasting a fortnight 

schools shut motorways closed 

HEAVY continuous snow showers and bands 

red alerts thames frozen 

weather forum server crashes

a new breed of lampost watchers 

and sledges sell out in shops