SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

[Chris101]

52 minutes ago, Sharpedge said:

He’s on a boozy break out of the country.  He still posts on the Mod thread in between rounds. Back on Saturday subject to snow conditions at Gatwick!

mind you, he might be back earlier, he mentioned something about his wallet was getting lighter.

Was last seen checking GFS with the pope

[tight isobar]

Morning- if you drop into the mod thread..

It doesnt take a genius to work out that the downbeat are from all northern contingents *ecm* - wobble..

However as i have stressed in there 4 some time, in such set up (easterlys) our part of the uk is prone..and benefits  much better than most.

We are well in the game- and others could see see a clearing with a shunt north of heights.

Just to add these are the london latest ens ooz gfs...

And are truly remarkable.....for us.

Cold and potentialy snowy continues to be the theme for our part...... .

Edited February 19, 2018 by tight isobar

[JennyJane1]

9 hours ago, lassie23 said:

how did a seagull make a pigeon

It didn't Lassie, roflmao, two pigeons made a baby pigeon.You see, when the Daddy pigeon and the Mummy pigeon............

[Laurence Hill]

22 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Morning- if you drop into the mod thread..

It doesnt take a genius to work out that the downbeat are from all northern contingents *ecm* - wobble..

However as i have stressed in there 4 some time, in such set up (easterlys) our part of the uk is prone..and benefits  much better than most.

We are well in the game- and others could see see a clearing with a shunt north of heights.

Just to add these are the london latest ens ooz gfs...

And are truly remarkable.....for us.

Cold and potentialy snowy continues to be the theme for our part...... .

Glad you posted that tight isobar, it’s getting really tiresome with poster who you assume are knowledgable seem to be trolling.  It’s getting really difficult to decide who is talking straight on the Mod forum.

[starstream]

@tight isobar that's an interesting point, I'm on a phone and locations don't show on posters.

i know yourself Mr Murr and Dan Smith are from the SE contingent, and of course Mr shortwave Sussex who , as long as snow it to our shores is a true cheerleader.

who else regularly posts in Mod/Mad thread who's from our region?

[Laurence Hill]

1 minute ago, starstream said:

@tight isobar that's an interesting point, I'm on a phone and locations don't show on posters.

i know yourself Mr Murr and Dan Smith are from the SE contingent, and of course Mr shortwave Sussex who , as long as snow it to our shores is a true cheerleader.

who else regularly posts in Mod/Mad thread who's from our region?

Daniel* is a good one, also Mulzy.

[london-snow]

I’m here also ???

[Ben Lewis]

28 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Morning- if you drop into the mod thread..

It doesnt take a genius to work out that the downbeat are from all northern contingents *ecm* - wobble..

However as i have stressed in there 4 some time, in such set up (easterlys) our part of the uk is prone..and benefits  much better than most.

We are well in the game- and others could see see a clearing with a shunt north of heights.

Just to add these are the london latest ens ooz gfs...

And are truly remarkable.....for us.

Cold and potentialy snowy continues to be the theme for our part...... .

I’m not sure I agree, their are a couple of very credible members from the north just keeping a balance and stating what’s shown. 

Any further south modelling of the HP and it will be us dry as well and France that’s pounded. 

We really do not want Heights any further south on future runs. 

Nick Sussex could be happy though 

 

[tight isobar]

4 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

I’m not sure I agree, their are a couple of very credible members from the north just keeping a balance and stating what’s shown. 

Any further south modelling of the HP and it will be us dry as well and France that’s pounded. 

We really do not want Heights any further south on future runs. 

Nick Sussex could be happy though 

 

Have a butchers @ mets long ranger...

Sums up my post rather well!!.

South/south east #snowiest #coldest.

But yes- i can see why some further north will feel de-flated- but have'nt ourselves .....for all to long.

Likely our time is nearly upon us!!

Edit;

Other suites are stark- gem /gfs/ukmo..

Along with supports ens...

So to loose the rag over 1-ecm operational is ludacrious...imo!!!

 

Edited February 19, 2018 by tight isobar

[Donna3397]

When i go on to the mad thread and see all the different charts and people yelling about all the different situations i tend to automatically go and fins our  weather men from this forum. they seem to always make sense and they always explain things lovely

[Uxbridge90]

Looks like it's going to get very cold with some a few ice days next week - never understand why anyone gets so hung up on whether it will snow or not this far out, as much as I hate the cliche but it really is a case of get the cold in first and see what happens. As ever those in Kent and Sussex will probably fair the best to begin with but there's no reason why the whole region won't see some decent accumulations, certainly with the chance of streamers developing throughout next week.

 

 

[tight isobar]

Just now, Uxbridge90 said:

Looks like it's going to get very cold with some a few ice days next week - never understand why anyone gets so hung up on whether it will snow or not this far out, as much as I hate the cliche but it really is a case of get the cold in first and see what happens. As ever those in Kent and Sussex will probably fair the best to begin with but there's no reason why the whole region won't see some decent accumulations, certainly with the chance of streamers developing throughout next week.

 

 

If some data is barking up the correct tree- we'll be digging ourselves out come wednesday-week...

And thats not an over-statement!!!.

Lets turn our attentions to the 6z...and see its evolution.

[Dami]

Was lovely out there even if the rain started off the new school term. No wind either. 

Hubs has enquired about a black 1 year old cat, so fingers crossed. 

Am poorly. Not sure with what, seems to be a bit of everything.  

[Donna3397]

23 minutes ago, Uxbridge90 said:

Looks like it's going to get very cold with some a few ice days next week - never understand why anyone gets so hung up on whether it will snow or not this far out, as much as I hate the cliche but it really is a case of get the cold in first and see what happens. As ever those in Kent and Sussex will probably fair the best to begin with but there's no reason why the whole region won't see some decent accumulations, certainly with the chance of streamers developing throughout next week.

 

 

 

i think people are excited people don't see hardly any snow and if this does come of then it might be a lot of snow. i also think people are worried because we still need to function, go to work road trips ect.. i know its a long way away but i have started to make a mental list in my head of things that we might need as a family. obviously there is a massive chance that this will not happen and I'm not going to go out and start panic buying (That's not me) because there might be snow but there are lots of things i need to think about. my house is ran of off gas bottles (live in the middle of nowhere) will i need more if it snows? do i have enough nappies/wipes? my baby needs a special milk so will i have enough of that?  will i have enough food to keep four children (if home from school) happy and content after they come in from a day filed with snowmen  I haven't thought about this snow next week at all have i  IM NOT EXCITED HONEST  

[Nick F]

Although the 00z EC is probably the worst case scenario out to day 10 nationwide, at least here in the SE would still get a brief chunk of deep cold swiping us to increase the chance for snow showers and the surface flow will remain bitterly cold even without the cold uppers, just more likely to be dry cold. However, 00z GFS was a corker, so unless it takes a turn for the worse like EC, then no reason why we won’t see the deep cold last longer / more extensive over NW Europe.

Could be some snow flurries by the end of the week as the easterly wind developing from Wednesday gets progressively colder.

Edited February 19, 2018 by Nick F

[SLEETY]

1 hour ago, tight isobar said:

Morning- if you drop into the mod thread..

It doesnt take a genius to work out that the downbeat are from all northern contingents *ecm* - wobble..

However as i have stressed in there 4 some time, in such set up (easterlys) our part of the uk is prone..and benefits  much better than most.

We are well in the game- and others could see see a clearing with a shunt north of heights.

Just to add these are the london latest ens ooz gfs...

And are truly remarkable.....for us.

Cold and potentialy snowy continues to be the theme for our part...... .

That’s amazing for this time of year,give it another 24 hours and it’s game on for us folk in the SE at least,hope gem is leading the way today.

That gem model run is truly epic for the SE, many places would be cut-off if it verifies like that,amazing run.

Edited February 19, 2018 by SLEETY

[snowrye]

Ha ha ha,have you seen the mad thread,some moaning that the south east could be in the firing line,and how unfair it is,do me a favour,you've had at least 3 decent snow events north of that dreaded bloody corridor,its high time we had some fun,BUT,I still refuse to get carried away,hopefully things will work out great,and we get a snowfest thats long overdue,until its in the reliable,I shall contain myself,lol

[NO LONGER POSTING]

GFS 06z so far is almost identical to the 00z infact, this could turn into another Stella run, snow flurries go by Wednesday this week easterly gaining momentum from then on, less cold weekend but still an easterly wind and beginning to gain strength.. 

By Sunday morning we are on the cusp of something rather special.. 

 

[Chris101]

Northerners won't moan at the 06 Gfs, looking very nice for all so far, little wobbles as Essex Weather said at the start of the weekend, hopefully these woobles for the short term will even themselves out over the next 24-48 hours.

[throwoff]

I am all a bit shocked by what we are seeing on the models tbh. I really didn't expect this coming off. 

Looking at 6 days of solid 95% snow risk is something I can't recall since the heady days of 2010.

[SLEETY]

Bbc weather online  just now,winds from Siberia next week turn bitter with snow

looks like it’s game on time to prepare 

[Nick F]

Given the sheer consistency of the GFS to bring that sub -10C T850 cold pool across the whole of the UK, you’d have to assume the EC will have to shift further north with cold pool on the 12z later, as the deep cold pool only side swipes the SE on the 00z. 

A nail-biting long wait until all the 12z output is out to be certain the GFS is not leading us up the garden path!

Edited February 19, 2018 by Nick F

[username home]

Currently excited but fully prepared for a complete let down! The joys of living in the SE! 

 

[KDME]

I am about to order a bag of salt for the drive.  Shall I ... Shan't I .... we all know about the law of the Sod!
 

[Laurence Hill]

8 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Given the sheer consistency of the GFS to bring that sub -10C T850 cold pool across the whole of the UK, you’d have to assume the EC will have to shift further north with cold pool on the 12z later, as the deep cold pool only side swipes the SE on the 00z. 

A nail-biting long wait until all the 12z output is out to be certain the GFS is not leading us up the garden path!

So if today’s 12Z output is all hunkey dorey, can we assume it’s all go or can tomorrow’s runs potentially scupper our chances.