SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

[JennyJane1]

13 minutes ago, Snowflake Queen said:

Not sure about there .... but as we are all mowing our lawns ( tidying up the plastic ones ) it’s a sure sign the snow is coming ?

lol, its an old quote from bbc snowwatch, someone used to ask that every five minutes.

[slater]

Has anyone who have the new BBC weather app notice how rubbish it is . The new company they get their weather data from is completely useless up to 3 days always wrong temperatures for Norwich been nowhere near correct. Even now for weeks time they are going for 8c hello not even a sniff of cold temps for the next 14 days. However the Met Office app go for 3c from Thursday onwards ! 

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, JennyJane1 said:

lol, its an old quote from bbc snowwatch, someone used to ask that every five minutes.

Will it snow in Carlisle? 

[lassie23]

has the cold spell gone tots up yet

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

28 minutes ago, slater said:

Has anyone who have the new BBC weather app notice how rubbish it is . The new company they get their weather data from is completely useless up to 3 days always wrong temperatures for Norwich been nowhere near correct. Even now for weeks time they are going for 8c hello not even a sniff of cold temps for the next 14 days. However the Met Office app go for 3c from Thursday onwards ! 

Noticed it too with the week ahead forecast, apparently it's going to turn "much colder" all the way down to 7c for the south east    

 

Hate how they always quote city temps and barely ever state rural areas, 7c maybe for central london but elsewhere will struggle to see 3 or 4, still it is a few days away yet, maybe they will get their act together

Edited February 18, 2018 by The East has Ceased

[Ben Lewis]

By next Sunday according to the GFS 12z we will be bathed in -12 to -14 uppers across our region. 

Whilst across the pond, New York up to Maine gets bathed in +12 uppers.

Is this fantasy or could I be sitting at home this time next week with those incredible upper air temps.... 

place your bets now?!?!?!.....

[Laurence Hill]

 

3 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Getting progressively snowier.

Anyone care to explain to me how radiohead can tell from that chart how it’s “getting progressively snowier”

[shotski]

15 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

By next Sunday according to the GFS 12z we will be bathed in -12 to -14 uppers across our region. 

Whilst across the pond, New York up to Maine gets bathed in +12 uppers.

Is this fantasy or could I be sitting at home this time next week with those incredible upper air temps.... 

place your bets now?!?!?!.....

-12 or -14 would be very best case scenario, remember a record SSW has just taken place so there’s going to be major implications for someone, somewhere. 

My bet would be -8 uppers this time next week with the frigid air over the near continent. 

[Sweetdream]

Latest met o update has us dry and coldest air although uncertain  with regards to very cold not happening till the 5th March 

[Sweetdream]

Headline:

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Friday 23 Feb 2018 to Sunday 4 Mar 2018:

Dry with sunny spells as we head into next weekend with overnight frosts, along with patchy mist and freezing fog. However, outbreaks of rain or drizzle along with some hill snow and stronger winds are possible at times across northwestern areas. Temperatures will turn colder for most with wind from the east or northeast, possibly brisk in SE England. The cold weather will be mainly dry initially with a chance of snow flurries in the east and southeast. Heading into the following week, there is an increased chance of snow for many, especially in the south and east. Although the location and timing of any snowfall remains uncertain. However, some milder unsettled weather may still occur at times, especially in the west.

UK Outlook for Monday 5 Mar 2018 to Monday 19 Mar 2018:

At the start of this period it is likely to stay cold for most with widespread overnight frost. There will be a greater chance than usual of mainly easterly winds originating from continental Europe, which could bring very cold weather at times and the potential for some snowfall, especially in eastern and southern parts. Unusually, it will probably be driest in the northwest. As we head further into mid March there are indications that it may become more changeable and less cold, with the wettest weather and mildest temperatures likely to be in the south or the southwest of the UK, but this is currently very uncertain.

[steveinsussex]

Just can’t get excited about any cold spell yet. Seen it go wrong way too often. When it gets to 24 hours out then I’ll be happy...

[Ben Lewis]

12 minutes ago, shotski said:

-12 or -14 would be very best case scenario, remember a record SSW has just taken place so there’s going to be major implications for someone, somewhere. 

My bet would be -8 uppers this time next week with the frigid air over the near continent. 

Yes, just can’t see -14 uppers over us this time next week.

Not prentending to be knowledgeable here just going with with what history tells me... and history tells me 99% of the time you can half those uppers come the day. 

So I’ll go with -6 uppers this time next week and a similar thinking to you @shotski - with the very cold air from Denmark eastwards 

[Flaked Queen]

7 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

Just can’t get excited about any cold spell yet. Seen it go wrong way too often. When it gets to 24 hours out then I’ll be happy...

I’m the same .... I’m screaming yes cover me with snow ⛄️ but in reality I’m thinking was cutting the grass worth the time ? 

[snowking]

24 minutes ago, Sweetdream said:

Latest met o update has us dry and coldest air although uncertain  with regards to very cold not happening till the 5th March 

I'm not really sure how you managed to conclude that from the forecast you posted.

The 'dry' part applies to the first few days of the forecast period - ie Friday to Sunday, as is currently expected anyway.

They then mention the risk of snow start to increase, especially for the South and East, into the following week - ie the week commencing 26th February - as is also currently being modelled.

So for this region, a pretty extraordinary update really and I'm not sure we could really expect more than that at this stage.

[Sweetdream]

I agree we have been here many times for it to get to reliable time frame and it goes pear shaped.  Yes different sort of set up but with still the same problems that can scupper it.   The met offiice update was for the very cold air to be over us by the 1st of March now their update says the 4th   

So while the gfs model brings it in early the ikon / ukmo/ecm all have it taking longer  normal a shortwave in the wrong place will push the cold back and that is shown on the gfs and ecm .  I personally don’t see us getting the deep cold like the charts are churning out at the moment , anything can happen within 2 weeks which will bring us to the 4th of March   

There are a lot of excited peeps saying it’s nailed on !   It’s not as it can still change within 48hrs.  

 

[shotski]

7 minutes ago, snowking said:

I'm not really sure how you managed to conclude that from the forecast you posted.

The 'dry' part applies to the first few days of the forecast period - ie Friday to Sunday, as is currently expected anyway.

They then mention the risk of snow start to increase, especially for the South and East, into the following week - ie the week commencing 26th February - as is also currently being modelled.

So for this region, a pretty extraordinary update really and I'm not sure we could really expect more than that at this stage.

Not seen you much in the Mod thread snowking. What’s your thoughts on the up coming event ? 

[Flaked Queen]

2 minutes ago, Sweetdream said:

I agree we have been here many times for it to get to reliable time frame and it goes pear shaped.  Yes different sort of set up but with still the same problems that can scupper it.   The met offiice update was for the very cold air to be over us by the 1st of March now their update says the 4th   

So while the gfs model brings it in early the ikon / ukmo/ecm all have it taking longer  normal a shortwave in the wrong place will push the cold back and that is shown on the gfs and ecm .  I personally don’t see us getting the deep cold like the charts are churning out at the moment , anything can happen within 2 weeks which will bring us to the 4th of March   

There are a lot of excited peeps saying it’s nailed on !   It’s not as it can still change within 48hrs.  

 

Can and will change ... no way are we going to get this dumping of snow .. not going to happen but it is fun watching the guys in the mod thread say about it ... nope I don’t have facts it won’t happen but I have spoken to a few ppl Who do   

[Sweetdream]

8 minutes ago, snowking said:

I'm not really sure how you managed to conclude that from the forecast you posted.

The 'dry' part applies to the first few days of the forecast period - ie Friday to Sunday, as is currently expected anyway.

They then mention the risk of snow start to increase, especially for the South and East, into the following week - ie the week commencing 26th February - as is also currently being modelled.

So for this region, a pretty extraordinary update really and I'm not sure we could really expect more than that at this stage.

I’m on about the depth of cold. Not the amount of snow 

[Sweetdream]

2 minutes ago, Snowflake Queen said:

Can and will change ... no way are we going to get this dumping of snow .. not going to happen but it is fun watching the guys in the mod thread say about it ... nope I don’t have facts it won’t happen but I have spoken to a few ppl Who do   

Yes it’s fun to watch and charts churning out that is a collies dream. If we could bank it we would. Snow is always hard to pin point even down to the last 6 hrs. I have seen that happen before.  The problem is some people take it way to seriously and don’t like it when the mention of what can go wrong become very defensive..  

IF and I mean a big IF this came off as the models are suggesting today then my concern is for our many homeless people.  

[Dbarb]

Placing my comment in here for the history books before the great 2018 blizzard.

[Neilsouth]

38 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

Just can’t get excited about any cold spell yet. Seen it go wrong way too often. When it gets to 24 hours out then I’ll be happy...

Same, so far the only people getting really excited over this is over in the model section... Say differently and " DELETE ". Meh, still a week away and it's been delayed a lot so far

[Flaked Queen]

Just now, Sweetdream said:

Yes it’s fun to watch and charts churning out that is a collies dream. If we could bank it we would. Snow is always hard to pin point even down to the last 6 hrs. I have seen that happen before.  The problem is some people take it way to seriously and don’t like it when the mention of what can go wrong become very defensive..  

IF and I mean a big IF this came off as the models are suggesting today then my concern is for our many homeless people.  

Couldn’t agree more ! Our churches took a lot of homeless in 2010 when it got very cold , me and hubby took down some blankets and soup to the local church ... we ( most ) all love snow but it can cause huge devastation to some and we forget that 

[Chris101]

Should of been watching 2010, cold and snow went all the way from around 144/168 and then we watched it come all the way to 0z, things to me look like its just a matter of time.

[Daniel*]

36 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

Yes, just can’t see -14 uppers over us this time next week.

Not prentending to be knowledgeable here just going with with what history tells me... and history tells me 99% of the time you can half those uppers come the day. 

So I’ll go with -6 uppers this time next week and a similar thinking to you @shotski - with the very cold air from Denmark eastwards 

-6C uppers that would be ordinary cold, what lays ahead could be extraordinary. I think we’ll see uppers between -10c to -15c outside chance but not impossible of colder. This is a one in xx possible event. 

[Darkcloud]

1 hour ago, slater said:

Has anyone who have the new BBC weather app notice how rubbish it is . The new company they get their weather data from is completely useless up to 3 days always wrong temperatures for Norwich been nowhere near correct. Even now for weeks time they are going for 8c hello not even a sniff of cold temps for the next 14 days. However the Met Office app go for 3c from Thursday onwards ! 

It's completely useless now. I have uninstalled it and gone back to the Met Office app.