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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards


Captain Shortwave

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

I had just started work in 1987 at the Kennel Club in Mayfair and my boss was from near Maidstone, West Malling rings a bell, he never came to work for a few days was completely snowed in. When he came back to work he said that he could not see over the snow at the back of his house where I presume it had drifted. I remember that he was a rather short man though.

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Posted
  • Location: Great Yarmouth
  • Location: Great Yarmouth
2 minutes ago, starstream said:

87 gave 2 ft of level snow at heybridge Essex , and the sea froze.

Schools shut for a week, I always remember the BBC had a mini series called "Anzacs "on telly box , shown in the afternoons. 

Dad was off work ( teacher) so we all watched it as there was nothing else to do.

surprisingly, I don't remember the power going off, but that would be my only concern if we got a significant Cold event now, severely autistic son would struggle without the computer .

 

 

 

dont know if you could get a small tablet and then there are chargers which run on batteries, i have one, dont know how practical it would be for a week, but its something.

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Posted
  • Location: Ampthill, Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Heat, Cold, Sun
  • Location: Ampthill, Bedfordshire
22 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Just 6-8 days now depending on your choice of poison. :p

I think we will see an event which we haven't seen in a long time at least in terms of how widespread the affected areas will be.

Personally I think the ECM suite looks a decent call woth deeper cold arrive by the end of next weekend. Ice days will be possible (especially if we get a decent amount of snow).

No point guess snow amounts, but enough to be disruptive would be a gopd guess.

Okay 10cm at low levels widely perhaps. Or at least as much as I would feel necessary. Monster totals (1ft+) would be more of an inconvenience than anything else and I think others may jse stronger language. However this time I think we should be at least prepared for a major snow event.

I’m talking at that ECM chart that’s 10 days away dated Wednesday 28th February - I agree it looks to turn colder by day 5/6 with (hopefully) easterly winds setting in. 

Until any major snow event is modelled within T48 then I just can’t get excited CS.

I really hope your right and we do get a major event, I’m just keeping my feet firmly on ground that’s all. 

Today is 18th February- which means a life time between now and these fantasy charts to go belly up with shortwaves and not mention the HP block being modelled to far north to allow the Atlantic in. 

It can all go right of course, but boy... can it still all go wrong.

*lets get the cold in first before worrying if we need to freeze bread. LOL 

 

Edited by Ben Lewis
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Posted
  • Location: Woodham Walter Essex,between Danbury and Maldon 42 m asl
  • Location: Woodham Walter Essex,between Danbury and Maldon 42 m asl
4 minutes ago, JennyJane1 said:

dont know if you could get a small tablet and then there are chargers which run on batteries, i have one, dont know how practical it would be for a week, but its something.

Unfortunately not, he's 22 and very LD as well, he doesn't understand why it wouldn't work.

tablets get thrown ,RIP many an iPad!

usually with power outages we go for a drive to get away till it comes back on . But we shall manage .

 

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So the starting pistol fires Weds (t78) as the -6c line hits the SE -

4D502299-B8DF-4505-9622-CCEE9F3CC302.thumb.png.2ec97f9e76cff1194efc211ad2e328be.png

Give it a day to mix through the layers & maxes thurs we be down to about 3-4c then Friday be another degree off that...

Edited by Steve Murr
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Posted
  • Location: Rye East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: snow (but who doesnt like that)
  • Location: Rye East Sussex

Ooooo look what I found???? Shame it isn’t heavy but it’s still something I suppose 

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Posted
  • Location: Eythorne, East Kent
  • Location: Eythorne, East Kent

Oh I didn't think of that! I also have an autistic child (5 year old) who loves his iPad! Luckily he also seems to love the snow as he spent ages crunching about in the garden in it a couple of weeks ago when we had a sprinkling! 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Rye East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: snow (but who doesnt like that)
  • Location: Rye East Sussex

Sorry messed that up a bit start again oooooo look what I found????

0B944D9B-4916-48ED-9B86-98943DC97EF1.png

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Good morning all hope you all are are ok ?. Lovely start to the day here in Walthamstow was frosty though. Looks like it's going to be like one of those spring days for now. 

I am excited ? but trying to take things with caution as well hope everything goes to plan next week. 

Anyway my only day off today so will have a chance to enjoy bit of the sun. 

Hope you have a wonderful day all

speaks soon ????

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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

It is the third morning of very bright sunshine, with spring like temperatures. The sunshine has been lasting until the late afternoon for the past three days.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
2 minutes ago, Katrine Basso said:

It is the third morning of very bright sunshine, with spring like temperatures. The sunshine has been lasting until the late afternoon for the past three days.

Yes its been lovely, hard to believe that its going to snow next week!:good:

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

I've been watching a documentary about 1962/63 and this part explaining what caused it all made me chuckle

It really shows just how far we've come in terms of knowledge, weird to think that we on here know more about the weather than they did back in that time, the guy describes the weather as if it's some kind of living entity. 

Sudden Stratospheric Warming wasn't even conceived at this point and wouldn't be for many, many years.

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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

I was born in 1963 at the end of July in Edinburgh. My mother was worried that the snow won't be gone in time of my birth.    

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Posted
  • Location: Springfield, Chelmsford, Essex 30Mtr ASL
  • Weather Preferences: snowy or sunny but not too hot!
  • Location: Springfield, Chelmsford, Essex 30Mtr ASL

Good Morning Everyone.

Hopefully very exciting times just around the corner.

I wonder if someone could assist me with this. A week or so back I seem to recall there was a thread on Netweather in respect of the UKMO losing the BBC contract, but can't find it anywhere now. I was going to read it to see what models Meteo use to furnish the BBC with their forecasts as they seem to be less bullish on our forthcoming cold weather.

Thanks in advance.

Kind Regards

Dave

 

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Posted
  • Location: Rye East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: snow (but who doesnt like that)
  • Location: Rye East Sussex

Well my husband is trying t break his record for the earliest bbq of the year. We will see how that goes. It is a beautiful day though.

im trying very hard to keep calm about the next few weeks. We were in the same position a few weeks ago and nothing came of that. I even got my extra gas bottle:rofl: 

if this easterly does decide to play ball  how bad could this get (really) sensible answers only please.:D just posted about the meto forecast this is netweather future forecastF82E989E-8A51-470D-97E7-856635487EC9.thumb.png.b9fc8371c32d3aafc154b3187e474259.png

Edited by DonnaThw
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level

was sunny and cold this morning.

Edited by Dami
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
1 hour ago, Ben Lewis said:

I’m talking at that ECM chart that’s 10 days away dated Wednesday 28th February - I agree it looks to turn colder by day 5/6 with (hopefully) easterly winds setting in. 

Until any major snow event is modelled within T48 then I just can’t get excited CS.

I really hope your right and we do get a major event, I’m just keeping my feet firmly on ground that’s all. 

Today is 18th February- which means a life time between now and these fantasy charts to go belly up with shortwaves and not mention the HP block being modelled to far north to allow the Atlantic in. 

It can all go right of course, but boy... can it still all go wrong.

*lets get the cold in first before worrying if we need to freeze bread. LOL 

 

The -8c isotherm arrives on the 26th on the ECM at 8 days out with snow becoming increasingly widespread and heavy. It is also the slowest to get to this point. The gfs has us in the freezer by Saturday which is just six days away. Of course the winds will swing easterly late on Tuesday as the front gets pushed back westwards. The rest of this week looks dry with plenty of sunshine with just the chance of one or two light wintry showers.

The outlook looks promising for cold weather which could become severe for region later on and there is a lot of factors supporting this potential severe cold so unlike the previous situations I think this one will verify in some form.

Still got this week to get through, one where getting to work will be simple. Next week though i am already starting to prepare for that eventuality.

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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

Yes, it seems a very long time since there has been widespread heavy snow for the U.K. and Ireland. It is very hard for me to imagine what very cold and very snowy weather will be like. When it will come, the very cold weather will only be forecast 2 to 3 days before it is due to hit the U.K. and Ireland. Any snow coming our way will only appear in the 12 to 24 hour forecasts and they will not be able to know how much will fall.  I feel we will have a repeat of the chaos in London and other areas that occurred in February 2009. I have already bought snow boots which I bought two years ago and I still have not had a chance to wear them in snowy weather.

Edited by Katrine Basso
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level

Always fun to look back on when the event has happened, might snow on wednesday. But yay i have green light to buy stuffs.

piccyweatherythingy.png

Edited by Dami
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

For us in the SE, the 06z control run looks just right, -14c uppers moving in, notice the streamer in the SE. Thats just the start, proper straight easterly or ENE here should bring the Steve M lake effect snow to us at D7.:good:

 

edit: Problem is when the SW moves in the wind direction changes to more of a NNEly and then it turns mainly dry away from coasts in the SE, the NE of England gets hammered though.

gens-0-1-180.png

gens-0-0-180.png

gens-0-2-180.png

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Springfield, Chelmsford, Essex 30Mtr ASL
  • Weather Preferences: snowy or sunny but not too hot!
  • Location: Springfield, Chelmsford, Essex 30Mtr ASL

Hello again.

As others are reminiscing about past winters and frozen bread etc I wish to add my tuppence worth.

The following shows that attempts to save money can sometimes be very expensive.

In the 1980's I was working for Essex County Council in the Building Surveyors Section of the County Architects Department.

Energy conservation was very much in vogue at the time and a programme of installing frost censors to the outside of buildings was undertaken.

One Christmas/New Year break with heating turned off in schools and colleges etc the weather started reasonably mild, but one evening a very active cold front came down from the north and the temperature plummeted rapidly. By the time the censors had activated the central heating systems the water in radiators had frozen solid. The result was a lot of burst radiators and pipework. There was several million pounds worth of associated damage ranging from collapsed ceiling, damaged electrics and flooring including laminate gymnasium flooring that started to lift.

An expensive failure with the benefit of hindsight.

Kind Regards

Dave

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Posted
  • Location: Benfleet, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow events / Wind storms
  • Location: Benfleet, Essex
8 minutes ago, Dami said:

Always fun to look back on when the event has happened, might snow on wednesday. But yay i have green light to buy stuffs.

piccyweatherythingy.png

Yikes, what are those purple temperatures? overnight lows or windchills :shok: :cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
6 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

The -8c isotherm arrives on the 26th on the ECM at 8 days out with snow becoming increasingly widespread and heavy. It is also the slowest to get to this point. The gfs has us in the freezer by Saturday which is just six days away. Of course the winds will swing easterly late on Tuesday as the front gets pushed back westwards. The rest of this week looks dry with plenty of sunshine with just the chance of one or two light wintry showers.

The outlook looks promising for cold weather which could become severe for region later on and there is a lot of factors supporting this potential severe cold so unlike the previous situations I think this one will verify in some form.

Still got this week to get through, one where getting to work will be simple. Next week though i am already starting to prepare for that eventuality.

that's the downside of having snow.. having to commute to work:closedeyes:

I can foresee a lot of folks with rear wheel drive getting stranded

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