SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

[essexweather]

Good evening

Thought I would give a quick update on how things are developing in regards to MOGREPS and ECM (perfered medium range model currently)

MOGREPS... Consistent signal throughout the week of a Easterly flow setting in, was a brief wobble over the last couple of days to a more South-Easterly flow but now back to a direct Easterly from around 22nd February (20-30% chance of a day or two earlier)

ECM: Very high probability of much of Europe heading into the freezer next week (90% prob of this) but a couple of shortwaves keep developing from Denmark to Norway next week which either delays the cold further from reaching our shores or in some cases prevents the cold getting further than BeNeLux. Forecaster guideance of 17Z today was 70% chance of the Easterly progressing far enough to affect England. More than a few wobbles this week so there is still no guarantee we will get a bit of the cherry.

The main story from Exeter is, that *if* we do get in on the action next week, this will be a prolonged event lasting well into March with significant impacts on this country.

And just for us regional folk, here are todays 12Z ECM ensembles for Essex (but similar for anywhere in SE/EA to be honest)

-----------

2m temperaure

850 temperature

Snow depth (not really worth taking notice of at this stage)

-----------

Sunday will be another wobble day with the models but you will likely see cross-model agreement start from late Monday and into Tuesday.

Have a great weekend and fingers crossed for next week. Europe really is on the verge of something very special.

[tinybill]

1 minute ago, shotski said:

2012 ??

yep

 

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, essexweather said:

Good evening

Thought I would give a quick update on how things are developing in regards to MOGREPS and ECM (perfered medium range model currently)

MOGREPS... Consistent signal throughout the week of a Easterly flow setting in, was a brief wobble over the last couple of days to a more South-Easterly flow but now back to a direct Easterly from around 22nd February (20-30% chance of a day or two earlier)

ECM: Very high probability of much of Europe heading into the freezer next week (90% prob of this) but a couple of shortwaves keep developing from Denmark to Norway next week which either delays the cold further from reaching our shores or in some cases prevents the cold getting further than BeNeLux. Forecaster guideance of 17Z today was 70% chance of the Easterly progressing far enough to affect England. More than a few wobbles this week so there is still no guarantee we will get a bit of the cherry.

The main story from Exeter is, that *if* we do get in on the action next week, this will be a prolonged event lasting well into March with significant impacts on this country.

And just for us regional folk, here are todays 12Z ECM ensembles for Essex (but similar for anywhere in SE/EA to be honest)

-----------

2m temperaure

850 temperature

Snow depth (not really worth taking notice of at this stage)

-----------

Sunday will be another wobble day with the models but you will likely see cross-model agreement start from late Monday and into Tuesday.

Have a great weekend and fingers crossed for next week. Europe really is on the verge of something very special.

Incredible post, thank you for sharing. Always good to get some "inside info" into what the Met are currently thinking.

[shotski]

2 minutes ago, tinybill said:

yep

 

What dates was that mate ? 

Was it in this country

[SMU]

13 minutes ago, essexweather said:

Good evening

Thought I would give a quick update on how things are developing in regards to MOGREPS and ECM (perfered medium range model currently)

MOGREPS... Consistent signal throughout the week of a Easterly flow setting in, was a brief wobble over the last couple of days to a more South-Easterly flow but now back to a direct Easterly from around 22nd February (20-30% chance of a day or two earlier)

ECM: Very high probability of much of Europe heading into the freezer next week (90% prob of this) but a couple of shortwaves keep developing from Denmark to Norway next week which either delays the cold further from reaching our shores or in some cases prevents the cold getting further than BeNeLux. Forecaster guideance of 17Z today was 70% chance of the Easterly progressing far enough to affect England. More than a few wobbles this week so there is still no guarantee we will get a bit of the cherry.

The main story from Exeter is, that *if* we do get in on the action next week, this will be a prolonged event lasting well into March with significant impacts on this country.

And just for us regional folk, here are todays 12Z ECM ensembles for Essex (but similar for anywhere in SE/EA to be honest)

-----------

2m temperaure

850 temperature

Snow depth (not really worth taking notice of at this stage)

-----------

Sunday will be another wobble day with the models but you will likely see cross-model agreement start from late Monday and into Tuesday.

Have a great weekend and fingers crossed for next week. Europe really is on the verge of something very special.

nice post - I think those reading the Exeter updates put 2 + 2 together based on the bullishness of the literature on there!

Im in agreement with prolonged cold as long as the high retrogrades far enough west - If it does ( assuming day 6 is the start ) the its a +10 day event...

Based on the 00z IKON & ECM - 80-100 cms of snow in the SE - but would only come in a perfect clean flow with sub -14 air...

Edited February 17, 2018 by Steve Murr

[Bazray]

28 minutes ago, essexweather said:

Good evening

Thought I would give a quick update on how things are developing in regards to MOGREPS and ECM (perfered medium range model currently)

MOGREPS... Consistent signal throughout the week of a Easterly flow setting in, was a brief wobble over the last couple of days to a more South-Easterly flow but now back to a direct Easterly from around 22nd February (20-30% chance of a day or two earlier)

ECM: Very high probability of much of Europe heading into the freezer next week (90% prob of this) but a couple of shortwaves keep developing from Denmark to Norway next week which either delays the cold further from reaching our shores or in some cases prevents the cold getting further than BeNeLux. Forecaster guideance of 17Z today was 70% chance of the Easterly progressing far enough to affect England. More than a few wobbles this week so there is still no guarantee we will get a bit of the cherry.

The main story from Exeter is, that *if* we do get in on the action next week, this will be a prolonged event lasting well into March with significant impacts on this country.

And just for us regional folk, here are todays 12Z ECM ensembles for Essex (but similar for anywhere in SE/EA to be honest)

-----------

2m temperaure

850 temperature

Snow depth (not really worth taking notice of at this stage)

-----------

Sunday will be another wobble day with the models but you will likely see cross-model agreement start from late Monday and into Tuesday.

Have a great weekend and fingers crossed for next week. Europe really is on the verge of something very special.

Thank you - very good info.

[Methuselah]

18 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

nice post - I think those reading the Exeter updates put 2 + 2 together based on the bullishness of the literature on there!

Im in agreement with prolonged cold as long as the high retrogrades far enough west - If it does ( assuming day 6 is the start ) the its a +10 day event...

Based on the 00z IKON & ECM - 80-100 cms of snow in the SE - but would only come in a perfect clean flow with sub -14 air...

That must be as almost much snow as I've seen throughout my entire lifetime! What's the betting on whether it'll verify - 100 nanometres doesn't count...

[SenlacJack]

Cloudless skies, no wind and relatively strong sunshine here all day with a max of 10.7c. It felt warm in the sun.

The seafront was packed with folk making the most of it and it felt much more like Spring than Winter.

As much as I like the occasional snowfall to add a bit of variety to the weather, I can't say I'm looking forward to it as we head towards and into March. Winter had it's chance.

[shotski]

2 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

Standard of post must have gone up in SE thread...56 members viewing...we were talking about rats 30 mins ago...think there was 5 here

5 Rats or posters ?

I’m still busy looking for the beast from the east we had back in 2012. 

Edited February 17, 2018 by shotski

[pureasthedriven]

36 minutes ago, essexweather said:

Good evening

Thought I would give a quick update on how things are developing in regards to MOGREPS and ECM (perfered medium range model currently)

MOGREPS... Consistent signal throughout the week of a Easterly flow setting in, was a brief wobble over the last couple of days to a more South-Easterly flow but now back to a direct Easterly from around 22nd February (20-30% chance of a day or two earlier)

ECM: Very high probability of much of Europe heading into the freezer next week (90% prob of this) but a couple of shortwaves keep developing from Denmark to Norway next week which either delays the cold further from reaching our shores or in some cases prevents the cold getting further than BeNeLux. Forecaster guideance of 17Z today was 70% chance of the Easterly progressing far enough to affect England. More than a few wobbles this week so there is still no guarantee we will get a bit of the cherry.

The main story from Exeter is, that *if* we do get in on the action next week, this will be a prolonged event lasting well into March with significant impacts on this country.

And just for us regional folk, here are todays 12Z ECM ensembles for Essex (but similar for anywhere in SE/EA to be honest)

-----------

2m temperaure

850 temperature

Snow depth (not really worth taking notice of at this stage)

-----------

Sunday will be another wobble day with the models but you will likely see cross-model agreement start from late Monday and into Tuesday.

Have a great weekend and fingers crossed for next week. Europe really is on the verge of something very special.

Great stuff, thanks. Potential Scandinavian shortwaves always give me the heebies in these set-ups. Classic spoilers. Looks good this time though. 

[Chris101]

3 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

Standard of post must have gone up in SE thread...56 members viewing...we were talking about rats 30 mins ago...think there was 5 here

Won't be long before you go to check the lampost, come back and see 5 new pages

[JennyJane1]

7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

That must be as almost much snow as I've seen throughout my entire lifetime! What's the betting on whether it'll verify - 100 nanometres doesn't count...

and in the triangle? or like december 2010, everywhere else except here? mind you, i have to travel at the end of feb so if i dont get snowed in before i start out i expect i'll see some snow on my travels.

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, JennyJane1 said:

and in the triangle? or like december 2010, everywhere else except here? mind you, i have to travel at the end of feb so if i dont get snowed in before i start out i expect i'll see some snow on my travels.

Funny you should mention The Triangle, JJ...I've just been perusing the BBC's wonderful new 14-dayer for Norwich...And not one day will be colder than +5C...?

Maybe they're getting live updates from the CFS?

[Daniel*]

Call me a jinx but I see a sense of inevitability about it all. D10 mean from ECM support for the beast into Europe !

[abruzzi spur]

Let's have a Saturday night sing song.  From Annie, albeit slightly adapted to suit:

"Tomorrow (+9)

Tomorrow (+9)

I love you, tomorrow (+9)

You're always a day (+9) away"

(repeat ad nauseam until late April)

[Cold weather]

[Sweetdream]

It is always these short waves that scupper the easterly as it gets into the reliable time frame  and  Europe end up in the freezer with plenty of snow while the British isles gets the dregs. So to me this will go the same way  met o model good out to 3 days ecm out to 5 days  that’s how the met o rate these two models. 

‘So as ecm is showing short waves between Denmark and Norway this coming week Garden path comes to mind. And another huge let down of something that could have been epic. It seems no matter how much we have in our favour there’s always something to come along and jaffa cakes on our chips. 

[lawrenk]

18z is a barnburner of a run.

This really does look like it could be one to live in the memory IF it pans out like this.

[matt111]

50 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Call me a jinx but I see a sense of inevitability about it all. D10 mean from ECM support for the beast into Europe !

And this was before the 18z. 

[Rob Deacon]

how long away is this really cold snowy easterly now? dont tell me its still 10 days lol 

[SLEETY]

No it begins next week and get colder and colder as the days go on.Have you not been following the models to make that assumption

[pureasthedriven]

31 minutes ago, Sweetdream said:

It is always these short waves that scupper the easterly as it gets into the reliable time frame  and  Europe end up in the freezer with plenty of snow while the British isles gets the dregs. So to me this will go the same way  met o model good out to 3 days ecm out to 5 days  that’s how the met o rate these two models. 

‘So as ecm is showing short waves between Denmark and Norway this coming week Garden path comes to mind. And another huge let down of something that could have been epic. It seems no matter how much we have in our favour there’s always something to come along and jaffa cakes on our chips. 

Yeah, disappointing tbf. 

[Southender]

Just hopped in my time machine and come back from London next Sunday...

Grabbed a quick snap. Bring a coat if your visiting it’s a bit nippy...

[snowrye]

Absolute stunner of a day,felt very warm out of the wind,another beaut of a day tomoz hopefully,may even open the french doors while im doing the housework

[SMU]

I fly back sat 23:40

just as the proper snow starts !

yes please !!!