SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

[Darkcloud]

1 hour ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

TBQH I'm going to take a punt and declare winter over, at least south of the Pennines.

Have to agree with you on that. Game over

[Paul Sherman]

Just checking in to see if we are getting closer - Stats below make grim reading

Feb 4th the arrival of the snow was touted on here by Jaffacake to be around the 15th Feb so at Days 10-12

Feb 9th the arrival was pushed forward a bit to Days 7-9

Feb 12th the arrival was pushed back to days 9-11

Feb 14th we are now looking at days 12-14 again

Lets face it - It is not going to happen 

Hoping we get some dry weather with High Pressure to dry things out and then warm up a bit as we get into the 2nd week of March.

[Captain Shortwave]

Well today ended up pretty horrid with steady rain.

As for next week, we could be in the freezer in 6/7 days time or we may never go cold. Still no nearer to knowing what direction we will go in.

[E17boy]

This cold is not going to come seems that today it has been watered down I feel sad ?

I gues now it's time fior me to give up..,,,,,,,.,..

got a picture of you beside me

And your model history still on my new laptop..,,,,,,,,,,,,,.,

got a head of shattered dreams

couldnt you find a space in your snow ❄️ cloud for me meeee......

in a twist of seperation I set you free........

GOOD BYE  WINTER ????

[snowrye]

Too many in the mad thread have this ssw as gospel,the way this winter has gone for us,you just know the pear will prevail

[SenlacJack]

The drive from here in Hastings/St Leonards-on-Sea to my hospital appointment in Sidcup late this morning wasn't too bad apart from annoying road work hold-ups, but the drive back home this evening was pretty grim.

Thankfully temperatures held up enough to ensure it was just rain but there was plenty of that and visibility was poor at times due to spray, made worse by poor road surfaces causing unexpected areas of minor flooding.

The state of some of our so called 'major roads' is a bloody disgrace, a real bug bear of mine.

[LightningLover]

1 minute ago, SenlacJack said:

The drive from here in Hastings/St Leonards-on-Sea to my hospital appointment in Sidcup late this morning wasn't too bad apart from annoying road work hold-ups, but the drive back home this evening was pretty grim.

Thankfully temperatures held up enough to ensure it was just rain but there was plenty of that and visibility was poor at times due to spray, made worse by poor road surfaces causing unexpected areas of minor flooding.

The state of some of our so called 'major roads' is a bloody disgrace, a real bug bear of mine.

i know quite a few roads in Hastings that are terrible for large potholes, yet no one does anything abut them.

[lassie23]

3 hours ago, Paul Sherman said:

Just checking in to see if we are getting closer - Stats below make grim reading

Feb 4th the arrival of the snow was touted on here by Jaffacake to be around the 15th Feb so at Days 10-12

Feb 9th the arrival was pushed forward a bit to Days 7-9

Feb 12th the arrival was pushed back to days 9-11

Feb 14th we are now looking at days 12-14 again

Lets face it - It is not going to happen 

Hoping we get some dry weather with High Pressure to dry things out and then warm up a bit as we get into the 2nd week of March.

Yes, it's over isn't itThankfully i didn't follow the whole sorry saga of model watching, seems all a big waste of people's time if they were after snow.

Edited February 15, 2018 by lassie23

[Pixel]

4 hours ago, Paul Sherman said:

Just checking in to see if we are getting closer - Stats below make grim reading

Feb 4th the arrival of the snow was touted on here by Jaffacake to be around the 15th Feb so at Days 10-12

Feb 9th the arrival was pushed forward a bit to Days 7-9

Feb 12th the arrival was pushed back to days 9-11

Feb 14th we are now looking at days 12-14 again

Lets face it - It is not going to happen 

Hoping we get some dry weather with High Pressure to dry things out and then warm up a bit as we get into the 2nd week of March.

Like the fact you reminded us of the predictions made, always enjoy that in the forum 

I reckon a dry and cold spell is on the way... but after 4-5 days is anyone's guess.

Just from a casual observers point of view it seems this Strat Warming thing is a tad confusing for the models let alone those in the moody thread. The computer models are statistically geared up for an West to East / Atlantic driven algorithm for our shores and now along comes a spanner in the form of a SSW event to change the norm. Usual synopsis does not to apply and it's all up for grabs with what may or not happen. If the SSW affects our itsy island or near continent it depends on so many variables. But whatever happens it's not going to be very predictable if everything's coming our way from the east.  Could be just cold and dry or we could end up in the middle of the weather's struggle to regain that warmth from the atlantic against the cold from the east..... always fun.. will it wont it - INBY

I like surprises this time of year and always interesting experience winter holding out as the sun warms our northern hem but i feel this time it's a little more intriguing as the computer models try to deal with unusual data   

so after last weeks fun cooking pizza outside in the rain at a party i could be doing the same in snow in March !  Hope so.

 

[Daniel*]

Paul S 

i don’t quite agree with you GEM / JMA / NAVGEM all have a quick easterly solution at day 6 and UKMO gets there at day 7 the day 9/10 mean from ECM has an easterly flow we’re not talking far off here. As has GEFS mean consecutively within T+240 not checked latest. I think we’ll get our easterly it’s whether we get it earlier or later..

Edited February 15, 2018 by Daniel*

[Daniel*]

4 hours ago, E17boy said:

This cold is not going to come seems that today it has been watered down I feel sad ?

I gues now it's time fior me to give up..,,,,,,,.,..

got a picture of you beside me

And your model history still on my new laptop..,,,,,,,,,,,,,.,

got a head of shattered dreams

couldnt you find a space in your snow ❄️ cloud for me meeee......

in a twist of seperation I set you free........

GOOD BYE  WINTER ????

How poetic - is it bad I started laughing?  

im sure winter is not done with us a delayed spring looks probable, we saw the most wintriest update from Met Office in years, if you’re not encouraged by that then well there’s not much else that can.

models are struggling a lot clearly but I know what I’m siding with and it’s not just because of a preference! 

[Jimmyh]

I think i have model fatigue.... got a busy few days ahead. Plus tomorrow its the grand tour double bill and the rest of trauma to watch. Think i will take a brake now have a kit kat watch my episodes and be back sunday night to comment as everyone is taking one festering run as gospel and the sniping on the toys r us pram pages has begun. 

I will try and not check in as that will spoil the surprise oh and its chelsea friday night lol..... building up to barca by playing west brom and hull. Oooh barca are gonna b so scared........... c u soon folkes

[lassie23]

16 minutes ago, Jimmyh said:

I think i have model fatigue.... got a busy few days ahead. Plus tomorrow its the grand tour double bill and the rest of trauma to watch. Think i will take a brake now have a kit kat watch my episodes and be back sunday night to comment as everyone is taking one festering run as gospel and the sniping on the toys r us pram pages has begun. 

I will try and not check in as that will spoil the surprise oh and its chelsea friday night lol..... building up to barca by playing west brom and hull. Oooh barca are gonna b so scared........... c u soon folkes

Should shut the model thread for five days so people can do something more constructive with their time, rather than one minute be thinking woohoo and then the next, doh! if things are still up in the air by then, then we can safely say nowt of any interest will be happening this month, as the easterly will probably turn up in April.

[lottiekent]

Misty and 6c this morning. Thankfully no rain on the cards today!

[Paul Sherman]

Stunning start to the day with 9c on my drive into work - with some sun I reckon we could get 11-12c today

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, Paul Sherman said:

Stunning start to the day with 9c on my drive into work - with some sun I reckon we could get 11-12c today

8.7C currently for winter so far that’s very mild nice day expected with a high of 11C forecast here cold night though.

[Rob Deacon]

I had a few days away from watching the models and this forum, as this winter has started to do my head in lol.

What have I missed? is the cold and snow from the East still 10 days away like it has been most of winter?

[Dami]

it's sunny here. which doesn't matter as most of the day will be spent with my head in a cupboard spring cleaning the cleaning stuff i took out of under the sink. 

joy.

[Uxbridge90]

Well, what a lovely start to the day, Sunny and looks like we'll be hitting double figures! Currently 8.8c - can't stand the cold miserable weather so this is very welcome!

 

 

 

 

[yamkin]

The Latest UKMO output ties in nicely with the MetO's written forecast version. It will be interesting if ECM & GFS falls into place with UKMO in the coming days 

[Crystal Memories]

Can't believe there has been so much doom & gloom in here, definitely with the Met warning of significant snow at long range, which I can't ever remember them doing before, so I am definitely inclined to believe they are pretty sure they have this nailed on, ❄❄?

 

[Emz by the Thames]

Me: 'hey ho, spring coat, day off, off to Tesco  I walk in the sunshine"

5 minutes later: 'ahhhhh' (runs in doors after being ambushed by 10 minutes of freezing hail)

Typical.  Hair is now a wet and fizzy mess again.

All hands on deck at the allotment tomorrow. Not knowing how the SSW/possible easterly will pan out makes everything a bit uncertain, not really sure what to do, bah. I've covered my onions just in  case!

 

[trickybirdy]

To quote from the Mock Turtles song, think these words are apt with regards the weather!

 

Will you come and join the dance?
Will you, won’t you, will you, won’t you,
will you join the dance?
Will you, won’t you, will you, won’t you,
won’t you join the dance?

At least we can take heart that the sun is shining, so silver lining. 

[snow raven]

8 hours ago, Daniel* said:

I think we’ll get our easterly it’s whether we get it earlier or later..

Knowing our luck, it will finally make an appearance in Mid July!

[daveinSB]

Very spring-like shower here in Acton a few minutes ago, suddenly dark, then gusty with heavy rain/hail - and now beautiful clear skies coming in again.

I really really want these cold conditions to verify, but if not, I could deal with this kind of spring weather ?