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Captain Shortwave

SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

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Final month, the last chance saloon perhaps? Who knows but the stratosphere has been cooked like a persons brain after watching a lecture by Donald Trump.

So you get the drift, please keep this to weather chat please and of course be nice. We are snow starved together you know. :)

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7 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Final month, the last chance saloon perhaps? Who knows but the stratosphere has been cooked like a persons brain after watching a lecture by Donald Trump.

So you get the drift, please keep this to weather chat please and of course be nice. We are snow starved together you know. :)

is the strat well done or medium rare

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Aww I wanted to post something on the other thread and now you've opened a new one instead.:rofl:

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Anyone solved my riddle yet...

My 1st name means I can be male or female but I'm confused.
I wear my coat of arms with pride.
Everyone of us has a unique coat of arms.
Please don't make a hat out of me.
I can sing I'm not artificial.
Please welcome me with an open door not a round one.
You all named me wrong. You were too early! Il never forgive you.
Catch me if you can! 

 

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3 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

is the strat well done or medium rare

I think even the biggest germ freak would be sending it back for being "overdone".

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Just now, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

Anyone solved my riddle yet...

My 1st name means I can be male or female but I'm confused.
I wear my coat of arms with pride.
Everyone of us has a unique coat of arms.
Please don't make a hat out of me.
I can sing I'm not artificial.
Please welcome me with an open door not a round one.
You all named me wrong. You were too early! Il never forgive you.
Catch me if you can! 

 

Is it a snowflake 

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Do we definitely know that the ssw has disappeared ??? The mod thread is in massive argument over it. The star says it’s happening  :rofl: so it must be happening.

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My son reported heavy snow in Canterbury at 6pm ❄❄

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1 minute ago, DonnaThw said:

Do we definitely know that the ssw has disappeared ??? The mod thread is in massive argument over it. The star says it’s happening  :rofl: so it must be happening.

it's already underway, but either the models don't know what to do with it or it's in the wrong place, like the UK when it comes to snow:rofl:

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1 minute ago, DonnaThw said:

Do we definitely know that the ssw has disappeared ??? The mod thread is in massive argument over it. The star says it’s happening  :rofl: so it must be happening.

The strat warming is happeneing right now causing split which filters downwards towards the troposphere. The issue has been on a couple of fronts. Firstly the ammount of time that the split holds in the lower strat to allow high pressure to build favourably for cold conditions across Europe. This has proven to be more problematic than the models were suggesting a couple of days ago. Without that window we cannot get the same level of amplification but we are still within a shout. The ECM has been poor more so because the ridge over the Pacific that building and physically pushing the cold air over Canada eastwards which is igniting the Atlantic jet, it is no surprise that because the ECM gets the greatest amplitude with that Pacific ridge that we end up with the flattest Atlantic profile.

Heights will build eventually as there is no support to keep those low heights so strong to our north west, these will receed but the pathway to colder weather looks tough. We hope the ECM is wrong and we can get enough amplitude on the ridge later this week to help usher in a cold pattern quickly, especially as time is ticking by towards the first day of spring.

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3 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

Great answer but no...

Thought that would be the answer as countrywide they are hard to catch

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1 minute ago, Captain Shortwave said:

The strat warming is happeneing right now causing split which filters downwards towards the troposphere. The issue has been on a couple of fronts. Firstly the ammount of time that the split holds in the lower strat to allow high pressure to build favourably for cold conditions across Europe. This has proven to be more problematic than the models were suggesting a couple of days ago. Without that window we cannot get the same level of amplification but we are still within a shout. The ECM has been poor more so because the ridge over the Pacific that building and physically pushing the cold air over Canada eastwards which is igniting the Atlantic jet, it is no surprise that because the ECM gets the greatest amplitude with that Pacific ridge that we end up with the flattest Atlantic profile.

Heights will build eventually as there is no support to keep those low heights so strong to our north west, these will receed but the pathway to colder weather looks tough. We hope the ECM is wrong and we can get enough amplitude on the ridge later this week to help usher in a cold pattern quickly, especially as time is ticking by towards the first day of spring.

so winter is over :rofl:

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Can't quite believe the weather today....it was 6 degrees earlier when I parked at the ex-outlaws in Brentwood to see my little girl.

After a ridiculous amount of hail 'balls', I go out to my car 30 mins ago and found all the puddled water frozen solid on it....it was like something out of The Day after Tomorrow. 😂

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23 minutes ago, DonnaThw said:

Do we definitely know that the ssw has disappeared ??? The mod thread is in massive argument over it. The star says it’s happening  :rofl: so it must be happening.

The ssw is happening, which is why the models seem drunk, they will be all over the place for a while, expect the disagreements in the models to move even closer to the reliable, rather than a firming up. No one knows if it will bring us cold warmth or even both interchanging just yet.

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19 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

so winter is over :rofl:

The ECM suite is a long old slog, we might get an easterly by easter when it will be predicted to reach 20C. :)

No guarantees on which model is right though and we might have cross model agreement for large snowfalls by tomorrow night.

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7 minutes ago, Snowflake Queen said:

I’m very sorry if I made anyone feel uncomfortable tonight ... x

Lolol you an Daniel best friends now:rofl:....

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1 minute ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

Lolol you an Daniel best friends now:rofl:....

It’s simply not making others whom I have known long time feel awkward.. I shouldn’t have lowered and bit back ... anyway moving on 

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lots of ice out & about here- air temp though dropping slow 0.8c

 

S

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Another double duvet night I suspect, below freezing for most locations overnight.

arpegeuk-41-19-0.png?11-17

Probably down to -2/3C in sheltered spots. Tomorrow looks like a nice day with plenty of sunshine after a crisp start. 

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I'm fairly confident we'll see high pressure building close to the N and NE by the end of the month, possibly as soon as 8 days time, can't conceive such a long lasting reversal of winds in the strat not triggering blocking over northern Europe, Our area will likely benefit the most if come off, i.e. cold easterly or northeasterly flow.

Shame the showers have died back towards NW England / WALES tonight, would more likely have got settling at night, but today's showers likely driven by a little ground warming as well as troughs moving through.

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