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Mokidugway

North west regional discussion

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3 minutes ago, Chill Pill said:

Think the general public are starting to latch on to the cold spell judging by the amounts of logs and coal Home Bargain were selling earlier. Glad I stocked up! I do hope we see some decent snow during the next couple of weeks.

I,ve brought a car load of logs down from the stables and bought 3 bags of coal today,  I am prepared!!

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BBC text for sunday to tues-

Sunday will be dry with sunny spells but it will feel cold. The start of next week will stay cold and breezy with a wind chill factor. Monday should stay largely dry with some sunshine but there will be an increasing chance of some snow showers later on Monday night and into Tuesday. Potential for some locally significant snow accumulations through Tuesday.

thats NW England BTW.

Edited by northwestsnow
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Imagine those freezing temperatures moving across relatively warm seas!

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Just to add to that BBC upgrade GFS 12z brings in a spell of heavy snow thru tues :)

No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.

Edited by northwestsnow
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I really hope we see some. So exciting for coldies next week but it does look like we might miss out on the snow. I managed to be out of the country Jan 2010 when they had a foot here. Be sorry if we don’t get anything this time ! 

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gfs-0-132.png?12

GFS looks very snowy to me ... UKMO looks ever so slightly south with the pattern but looking at the GFS snow chart above even if its a bit further south we should still cop for that trough (hopefully). (tues).

Edited by northwestsnow
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GFS and UKMO are awesome with a proper bitter easterly. 

ICON less of an easterly, still cold with low minimas and flabby little lows bringing potential for snow. 

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Just now, karyo said:

GFS and UKMO are awesome with a proper bitter easterly. 

ICON less of an easterly, still cold with low minimas and flabby little lows bringing potential for snow. 

Yes they are mate :)

Amazing 12zs .. if we dont get snow showers in this set up its time to call it a day..

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5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes they are mate :)

Amazing 12zs .. if we dont get snow showers in this set up its time to call it a day..

Fingers crossed! 

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Let's not panic about snow showers getting over here. We've had several occasions this winter where NW or W winds with -7 or -8 850's have blown showers in and these have not only made it across the Pennines but in many cases have become more organised as they do. I'm sure it'll be the same but just in the opposite direction. In fact surely given the upcoming set up there is even more potential. We've done very well from similar situations in the past from the NE and E and this looks like being better still. 

 

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Nw 10 day showing a grand total of 0.6 mm of usable ppn for my location exactly what I expected unless theres trough activity.

Edited by Mokidugway

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8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes they are mate :)

Amazing 12zs .. if we dont get snow showers in this set up its time to call it a day..

All depends on whether those convective showers can cross the pennines or not, the PPN charts would suggest they won't which would make sense really hence I say any troughs and fronts are our best chance for snowfall.

On a selfish pov, I won' mind if that low does come up northwards, who cares if southern areas get sleet or rain but another part of me hopes the cold pattern continues and the low does not come into play. Long way to go before that is decided though.

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1 minute ago, Mokidugway said:

Nw 10 day showing a grand total of 0.6 mm of usable ppn for my location exactly what I expected unless theres trough activity.

Troughs will be picked up at a sort range. 

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1 minute ago, Geordiesnow said:

All depends on whether those convective showers can cross the pennines or not, the PPN charts would suggest they won't which would make sense really hence I say any troughs and fronts are our best chance for snowfall.

On a selfish pov, I won' mind if that low does come up northwards, who cares if southern areas get sleet or rain but another part of me hopes the cold pattern continues and the low does not come into play. Long way to go before that is decided though.

well as we saw a few weeks ago with a very light easterly draft the snow flurries even made it over the hills, should be OK.

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1 minute ago, karyo said:

Troughs will be picked up at a sort range. 

K you have a much better memory than me, wasnt it only a few weeks ago we had a very light east wind and flurries made it over the hills?

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Just now, karyo said:

Troughs will be picked up at a sort range. 

Indeed there's a fair amount of instability forecast so owt can hapoooooon..............

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4 minutes ago, PennineMark said:

Let's not panic about snow showers getting over here. We've had several occasions this winter where NW or W winds with -7 or -8 850's have blown showers in and these have not only made it across the Pennines but in many cases have become more organised as they do. I'm sure it'll be the same but just in the opposite direction. In fact surely given the upcoming set up there is even more potential. We've done very well from similar situations in the past from the NE and E and this looks like being better still. 

 

The air will dry out as it cross the hills because it is such a cold airmass which might mean the convective showers will fizzle out as it does so?

Either way, East is best this week so let's hope the flow does have some embedded troughs in when it becomes really unstable between Tuesday and Thursday.

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

K you have a much better memory than me, wasnt it only a few weeks ago we had a very light east wind and flurries made it over the hills?

Do you mean during the early Jan weekend easterly? It was dry as a bone here but it was very light and the uppers were far from impressive.

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2 minutes ago, karyo said:

Do you mean during the early Jan weekend easterly? It was dry as a bone here but it was very light and the uppers were far from impressive.

cant remember exactly when it was but i remember weather history saying the flow is very light but flurries still making it over the hills.

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Only problem is if there's snow on the ground it will reduce lapse rates and reduce potential convection for showers in our part of the world so will need some mixing from mesoscale  trough activity.

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TBH its probably too early to know where and how much snow,the BBC text sounds great for tues and K is correct, troughs in the flow will only be picked up on closer to the time.

 

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Interesting start to my working week - 6pm train Preston to London Sunday, back Tuesday evening. Somehow I don't think it will be snow free one or both ends looking at today's charts. Will be taking extra essentials! 

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25 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Nw 10 day showing a grand total of 0.6 mm of usable ppn for my location exactly what I expected unless theres trough activity.

Go away! :rofl:

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