North west regional discussion

[SP1986]

1 minute ago, Geordiesnow said:

It' a public health England cold health warnine hence only England has got the amber colours on that chart. I be shocked if it does not upgrade to  a red warning because the wind chill from this will be very serious indeed.

Ah I thought it was a blanket UK warning system. That explains it 

[trickydicky]

2 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Obviously with what I do we go looking for the extreme conditions - been waist deep in it at time particularly once near Harrison Stickle before I took an "interesting" ice slip.

But locally......

About 6" on the Garden Table at Salwick

And

1979 skiiing and sledging on Ingol golf course

1981 got stuck at work on nightshift

1987 car broke down in Garstang - it was a long walk home

1995? previous terraced house we lived in drifts up to the window cill

2001 my son was born it was snow and ice days at Salwick

2010 The best.

Are the most memorable - I dont have time today but there are the Model archives on this site - maybe have a look.

These are of Goosnargh just outside Preston in 1947. The absolute extreme of extremes but shows what’s possible if low pressure bumps into the cold air.

Edited February 23, 2018 by trickydicky

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

10 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

This smells of fake news given that Wales would almost certainly included along with southern Scotland or would at least have yellow first. Hmmm

Its official on their website. Its all over twitter that its fonna be a red there just waiting for authorisation from PM.!!

[Iceaxecrampon]

Decent pub the Grapes - nearly as good as the Dagger near us

Oh to be snowed in......

[Wardlegacy]

1 minute ago, Stratocumulus perlucidus said:

Its official on their website. Its all over twitter that its fonna be a red there just waiting for authorisation from PM.!!

If she says no would that be a constitutional crisis?! Not sure that is how it works.

Edited February 23, 2018 by Wardlegacy

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

1 minute ago, Wardlegacy said:

If she says no would that be a constitutional crisis?! Not sure that is how it works.

Something about the non health agencies?

[Iceaxecrampon]

Concerned how the country will cope if that LP verifies

[chicken soup]

Do i not like that.

[northwestsnow]

Warnings out for west yorks now for tues, that will do for me- 12 miles from Hudds so confident tues will deliver snow showers imby.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, chicken soup said:

Do i not like that.

I don't either , but as long as the winds are not SE i don't believe that chart..

[Snow free zone]

6 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

Do i not like that.

Seems fair enough to me.  Usual areas getting snow usual areas missing out.  One constant is at least it won't be mild.

[Astral Goat Juice]

24 minutes ago, Stratocumulus perlucidus said:

Its official on their website. Its all over twitter that its fonna be a red there just waiting for authorisation from PM.!!

Where does it say this on Twitter, can't find that. 

[Geordiesnow]

14 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

Do i not like that.

I would take it with a pinch of salt to be fair at this range but use it as a guide in respect the North East will get hammered whilst we get far less and it's more patchy from place to place.

[karyo]

Good to see the deep cold is still on track.

As for snowfall, too hard to predict at this stage. The first thing to see is the track of Tuesday's shortwave. The 6Z gfs takes it through the northern half of the region while the ECM has it a bit further south. This will not be finalised before Sunday night or Monday and even then slight variations can occur. After that it is a case of snow shower in the east forming bands and moving west. As a general rule, the greater Manchester area is always drier but not completely. For example, the easterly of Feb 2009 gave a good covering here and so did the one in late Nov 2010. We do of course have the stronger sun now so a light covering can still vanish as March 2013 showed pretty well.

Fingers crossed that the shower activity upgrades as we approach the event.

[Chris.R]

18 hours ago, Chris.R said:

 Wow 6 AM Thursday: 504 DAM and -14  850s. We’re back to the stupid  figures of a few days ago. 

Well we still have 504 DAM thickness but now we have -15 850s! Keep expecting it to downgrade but it just doesn’t. 

[karyo]

Just now, Chris.R said:

Well we still have 504 DAM thickness but now we have -15 850s! Keep expecting it to downgrade but it just doesn’t. 

Yes pretty crazy! One more reason to think there will be intense shower activity from the North Sea.

[Frost HoIIow]

10 minutes ago, karyo said:

Good to see the deep cold is still on track.

As for snowfall, too hard to predict at this stage. The first thing to see is the track of Tuesday's shortwave. The 6Z gfs takes it through the northern half of the region while the ECM has it a bit further south. This will not be finalised before Sunday night or Monday and even then slight variations can occur. After that it is a case of snow shower in the east forming bands and moving west. As a general rule, the greater Manchester area is always drier but not completely. For example, the easterly of Feb 2009 gave a good covering here and so did the one in late Nov 2010. We do of course have the stronger sun now so a light covering can still vanish as March 2013 showed pretty well.

Fingers crossed that the shower activity upgrades as we approach the event.

The extremely low dew points should help preserve snow cover. 

[Chris.R]

6 minutes ago, karyo said:

Yes pretty crazy! One more reason to think there will be intense shower activity from the North Sea.

Oh god yes. Imagine if this was a westerly. We’d be getting buried with intense thundersnow and all sorts of crazy stuff. 

Edited February 23, 2018 by Chris.R

[karyo]

1 minute ago, Chris.R said:

Oh god yes. Imagine if this was the westerly. We’d be getting buried with intense thundersnow and allsorts. 

If only, we could get those uppers with a westerly! Pity we won't be around when the next ice age begins 

[karyo]

7 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

The extremely low dew points should help preserve snow cover. 

Yes, if it is a proper cover. When it is just enough to turn the ground white the sun makes short work of it. I saw this happen in 2013 here.

Look out for a Humber streamer ;-)

Edited February 23, 2018 by karyo

[Iceaxecrampon]

2 minutes ago, karyo said:

If only, we could get those uppers with a westerly! Pity we won't be around when the next ice age begins 

..........next Tuesday by the sound of it Dahhn Saaath.

[Iceaxecrampon]

Wednesday as per.....

Interesting feature next Sunday but at +231

[karyo]

10 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Wednesday as per.....

Interesting feature next Sunday but at +231

The Sunday chart is a southeasterly so not good for our region. haha. Thankfully it is more than a week away.

[Joe Bloggs]

55 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

I would take it with a pinch of salt to be fair at this range but use it as a guide in respect the North East will get hammered whilst we get far less and it's more patchy from place to place.

Yes definitely take with a pinch of salt for now.

Feb 2005 saw plenty of snow showers pushing over the Pennines, same in Feb 2009.

Feb 1991 and Dec 1996 were snowy for Manchester I think. We're looking for a streamer to develop towards the Humber. The whole of Northern England could potentially do well if we're lucky, with snow showers potentially even pushing into North Wales.

Too early to say. Depends on the exact nature of the flow. Unlike SW England we have the benefit of a longer sea track and a shorter land track. Not that far to Hull. 

Also the snow shadow effect usually only comes into play when the precipitation is frontal, rather than convective.

We shall see, but I'm cautiously optimistic, if the flow continues to look like the below. I'm convinced we'd see showers. 

[Iceaxecrampon]

25 minutes ago, karyo said:

The Sunday chart is a southeasterly so not good for our region. haha. Thankfully it is more than a week away.

Ppn risk for same timescale?