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Posted
  • Location: Oldham, Gtr Manchester
  • Location: Oldham, Gtr Manchester
8 hours ago, WillinGlossop said:

Gfs 18z charts bad at predicting precipitation I know.... lovely to look at though....

205A5F35-8865-44C9-B3EA-59F19A75B6BF.png

Chart might be a chocolate fireguard but I appreciate it's acceptance of the Gtr Manchester snow shadow on that chart.  4cm for those areas tucked into the foothills on the sheltered side of the Pennines/Peak District before places higher up get pummelled.  

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
  • Location: Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

The Manchester snow shadow (from memory) doesn’t really come into play when we’re talking about convective snow showers from the east - indeed the Pennines can sometimes pep them up. Saw that in 2005. :) 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, Joe Bloggs said:

The Manchester snow shadow (from memory) doesn’t really come into play when we’re talking about convective snow showers from the east - indeed the Pennines can sometimes pep them up. Saw that in 2005. :) 

Correct a mondo!!

There is no shadow for greater manchester when the winds are E/ENE/NE..

Either way the vast majority of the region will be getting snow showers through tues and wed - the uppers are tremendous on EC!

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Preston
  • Location: Preston

I have no doubt a great cold spell is coming, and very little doubt that people in the east of the region will see snow maybe lots.  For the snow starved west coast, much less hopeful, we know all the models tend do overdo snow.     I did say much less hopeful, I do think there is a chance even here.

Im going to try and not obsess too much over snow, this looks like being a memorable spell without it

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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

The wind chill could cause some health issues for elderly or vulnerable people. Sadly a wind chill below -10C can probably cause death to someone who is frail and unaware. It's a good idea to let these people know (family etc) as it is going to be quite serious 

Edited by SP1986
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Despite any thoughts about snow i can't help but feel worried for the elderly and homeless next week.

The wind chill is going to be something else- i hope local authorities are going to be pro actve in getting folk off the streets , hopefully preperations are being made as we speak.

GFS maxima wed

GFSOPUK00_132_17.png

and mins wed night

GFSOPUK00_147_17.png

I reckon by fri we will be looking at a frozen landscape, lying snow, icicles, frozen ponds the lot..

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Oldham, Gtr Manchester
  • Location: Oldham, Gtr Manchester
9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Despite any thoughts about snow i can't help but feel worried for the elderly and homeless next week.

The wind chill is going to be something else

Yes I'd never ramp but bitterly cold it will most definitely feel next week.  It's the duration period that will be a concern to those most vulnerable.  No real respite during the day and a continuous feel of cold penetrating into your bones.  Not a nice feeling.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
7 minutes ago, dodgeredee said:

Yes I'd never ramp but bitterly cold it will most definitely feel next week.  It's the duration period that will be a concern to those most vulnerable.  No real respite during the day and a continuous feel of cold penetrating into your bones.  Not a nice feeling.

Yes Dodge- its cold NOW never mind next week, was a frost this morning round here with uppers of -5..

look at tues onwards on EC!

No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.

No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.

No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.

No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.

I dont think i have ever seen uppers so low for our region , ever.

I would hazard a guess warnings for our region will come out for tues/wed/thu/ but perhaos not until saturday/sunday :)

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Bollington
  • Location: Bollington
30 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

The wind chill could cause some health issues for elderly or vulnerable people. Sadly a wind chill below -10C can probably cause death to someone who is frail and unaware. It's a good idea to let these people know (family etc) as it is going to be quite serious 

I tried to tell my mother. She told me how we survived 1947 and 1963 with three kids in prams and even the coop grocery delivery didn’t stop! She did see my point when I pointed out she was over 80 now and struggles when it is just a little icy out there and the local shop no longer does deliveries!

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Posted
  • Location: Bollington
  • Location: Bollington
23 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Despite any thoughts about snow i can't help but feel worried for the elderly and homeless next week.

The wind chill is going to be something else- i hope local authorities are going to be pro actve in getting folk off the streets , hopefully preperations are being made as we speak.

GFS maxima wed

GFSOPUK00_132_17.png

and mins wed night

GFSOPUK00_147_17.png

I reckon by fri we will be looking at a frozen landscape, lying snow, icicles, frozen ponds the lot..

I know Cheshire East have instigated their cold weather plan for homeless and vulnerable people ready for this.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

LOL metoffice for moorside Oldham has ---

SUNDAY    MAX 0 MIN -3

MONDAY   MAX 0 MIN -3

TUESDAY  MAX -1 MIN -5

WED          MAX -3 MIN -6

THUR         MAX -2 MIN -5 

Thats incredible even of it were mid Jan letalone late Feb!!

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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

It will also prevent extreme minima though I'm sure they will be very very cold still

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

It will also prevent extreme minima though I'm sure they will be very very cold still

Indeed-

Absolutely amazing uppers on ECM, maybe Kevin will know the last time we had uppers of -11 to -14 over a 4 day period..

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: St helens, warrington, widnes border
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, Clod snowy Winters
  • Location: St helens, warrington, widnes border
1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Despite any thoughts about snow i can't help but feel worried for the elderly and homeless next week.

The wind chill is going to be something else- i hope local authorities are going to be pro actve in getting folk off the streets , hopefully preperations are being made as we speak.

GFS maxima wed

GFSOPUK00_132_17.png

and mins wed night

GFSOPUK00_147_17.png

I reckon by fri we will be looking at a frozen landscape, lying snow, icicles, frozen ponds the lot..

North sea may freeze over!

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Posted
  • Location: St.Helens
  • Location: St.Helens

My view is east of our region has a good chance, West is flurry territory at best. I am waiting for the break down that's usually when here in st Helens we can get very big falls. The temps are very low tho indeed. 

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Posted
  • Location: St helens, warrington, widnes border
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, Clod snowy Winters
  • Location: St helens, warrington, widnes border
3 minutes ago, gearbox100 said:

My view is east of our region has a good chance, West is flurry territory at best. I am waiting for the break down that's usually when here in st Helens we can get very big falls. The temps are very low tho indeed. 

I said this on Twitter before usually the breakdown thats good but this setup is different. There are low centers popping up everywhere so should get more

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

LOL metoffice for moorside Oldham has ---

SUNDAY    MAX 0(0) MIN -3

MONDAY   MAX 0(0) MIN -3

TUESDAY  MAX -1 (-2)MIN -5

WED          MAX -3 (-3) MIN -6

THUR         MAX -2 (-3) MIN -5 

Thats incredible even of it were mid Jan letalone late Feb!!

Updated in Brackets.... :cold: (also the max for today and tomorrow is only (2)

Might turn the heating up slightly 

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Posted
  • Location: Preston
  • Location: Preston

Very IMBY post here, we know on the west coast eaterlies arent great for snow, this isnt looking like an ordinary easterly though, as said above lots of lows popping up ,very unstable flow etc.     But this easterly isnt totally unprecedented, so are there any major historical easterlies that have ever delivered snow right to the west coast (not from the breakdown but from the eaterly itself) 

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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

I'm going for a walk in t shirt and shorts for a laugh this morning.

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Posted
  • Location: St helens, warrington, widnes border
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, Clod snowy Winters
  • Location: St helens, warrington, widnes border
2 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

I'm going for a walk in t shirt and shorts for a laugh this morning.

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Posted
  • Location: Eden Valley, Cumbria
  • Location: Eden Valley, Cumbria
1 hour ago, SP1986 said:

It will also prevent extreme minima though I'm sure they will be very very cold still

We’re bound to get a clear night with light winds at some point. I suppose it’s more likely if it ends up being a longer spell and things settle down after the initial easterly blast. Records for the North of England for March are record low max of -3.3 on 2nd March 1965 at Spadeadam and record low of -21.1 at Houghall in County Durham (I can’t find anything for strictly the north west) on 4th March 1947. I think the daytime one is odds on to go. 

Edited by trickydicky
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