North west regional discussion

[SP1986]

There has been such potential this winter but mostly there have been let downs. This is not even because a band of ppn missed us necessarily.. it's because it was often too marginal. 

At the risk of politicising the thread and drawing derogatory comments.. I feel this winter is a hint of climate change and a sign of things to come.

When I look at the opportunities we've had for significant snow this winter, I am in a kind of disbelief that it was all as marginal as it turned out to be. Synoptically it has been a fairly cold winter with polar maritime airmasses dominating .. but it's still been hard to achieve significant wintry weather

Edited February 10, 2018 by SP1986

[Mokidugway]

5 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

There has been such potential this winter but mostly there have been let downs. This is not even because a band of ppn missed us necessarily.. it's because it was often too marginal. 

At the risk of politicising the thread and drawing derogatory comments.. I feel this winter is a hint of climate change and a sign of things to come.

When I look at the opportunities we've had for significant snow this winter, I am in a kind of disbelief that it was all as marginal as it turned out to be. Synoptically it has been a fairly cold winter with polar maritime airmasses dominating .. but it's still been hard to achieve significant wintry weather

AGW or plain old GW ,I feel in the years to come the winter side of this thread will become alarmingly quiet.

[Chris.R]

Downgrade :-(

This Evening and Tonight:

Heavy rain will arrive this evening, and snow on Cumbrian hills. The rain will ease for a time but then very strong winds will sweep in from the west, bringing coastal gales, wintry showers and a risk of ice. Minimum temperature -1 °C.

Sunday:

Tomorrow will feel bitterly cold everywhere in brisk northwesterly winds. Frequent blustery sleet and snow showers will come and go all day though snow accumulations will mainly affect high ground. Maximum temperature 3 °C.

Outlook for Monday to Wednesday:

Sunshine and wintry showers on Monday and Tuesday will be interrupted by squally persistent rain and hill snow early on Tuesday. Wednesday will be wet, windy but become milder.

[Deep Snow please]

Is this rain supposed to turn to snow overnight then? How many times have we said this.

 

Roads are absolutely sodden round here, so it's going to need a shit-tonne of snow to settle at all.

[pip22]

16 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

There has been such potential this winter but mostly there have been let downs. This is not even because a band of ppn missed us necessarily.. it's because it was often too marginal. 

At the risk of politicising the thread and drawing derogatory comments.. I feel this winter is a hint of climate change and a sign of things to come.

When I look at the opportunities we've had for significant snow this winter, I am in a kind of disbelief that it was all as marginal as it turned out to be. Synoptically it has been a fairly cold winter with polar maritime airmasses dominating .. but it's still been hard to achieve significant wintry weather

I do believe in global warming but it will cause the gulf stream to slow down eventually.

[Hocus Pocus]

19 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

There has been such potential this winter but mostly there have been let downs. This is not even because a band of ppn missed us necessarily.. it's because it was often too marginal. 

At the risk of politicising the thread and drawing derogatory comments.. I feel this winter is a hint of climate change and a sign of things to come.

When I look at the opportunities we've had for significant snow this winter, I am in a kind of disbelief that it was all as marginal as it turned out to be. Synoptically it has been a fairly cold winter with polar maritime airmasses dominating .. but it's still been hard to achieve significant wintry weather

Until we see the AMO switch to its negative  phase around 2020 then anything coming off the Atlantic will always be more marginal than in a -AMO. Of course whether mans influence on the climate is worth discussing is another matter.?

[Hocus Pocus]

The MOD thread appears to be creaming it’s pants with a snowy Easterly affecting the SE in the outer reaches of FI. It’s a pity it’ll be gone later. ?

[Had Worse]

4 minutes ago, Hocus Pocus said:

The MOD thread appears to be creaming it’s pants with a snowy Easterly affecting the SE in the outer reaches of FI. It’s a pity it’ll be gone later. ?

At t+264 thats way past the semi reliable.  Eye candy yes. Will it actually happen...Hmmmm.

[Mokidugway]

17 minutes ago, Hocus Pocus said:

The MOD thread appears to be creaming it’s pants with a snowy Easterly affecting the SE in the outer reaches of FI. It’s a pity it’ll be gone later. ?

Who cares 

[Wardlegacy]

1 hour ago, SP1986 said:

There has been such potential this winter but mostly there have been let downs. This is not even because a band of ppn missed us necessarily.. it's because it was often too marginal. 

At the risk of politicising the thread and drawing derogatory comments.. I feel this winter is a hint of climate change and a sign of things to come.

When I look at the opportunities we've had for significant snow this winter, I am in a kind of disbelief that it was all as marginal as it turned out to be. Synoptically it has been a fairly cold winter with polar maritime airmasses dominating .. but it's still been hard to achieve significant wintry weather

I think we can still get severe winter weather but we seem to need much colder uppers. Although after going down to Birmingham and Gloucester after Christmas and seeing large snowfalls there then the script isn’t quite as straight forward as we may think. I am sure very similar Synoptics in the past have brought me severe deep snow whereas as Now at 160metres I am getting what I call spring snow that is slushy and has gone by the end of the day. 

[Wardlegacy]

42 minutes ago, Hocus Pocus said:

The MOD thread appears to be creaming it’s pants with a snowy Easterly affecting the SE in the outer reaches of FI. It’s a pity it’ll be gone later. ?

To be honest those charts on the GFS would bring the whole country  a lot of snow. Long way off though 

[dodge]

I think as well as the recently formed 'short range model' thread, there should be a seperate long range one for anything 9 days and over, because there always seems to be a silly 'day after tomorrow' 'a minute closer to doomsday' chart at the +240 range that to be honest doesn't deserve the discussion time, and very, very rarely comes to fruition.

[severe snowstorm]

1 minute ago, dodgeredee said:

I think as well as the recently formed 'short range model' thread, there should be a seperate long range one for anything 9 days and over, because there always seems to be a silly 'day after tomorrow' 'a minute closer to doomsday' chart at the +240 range that to be honest doesn't deserve the discussion time, and very, very rarely comes to fruition.

The short range thread was a very good idea and I enjoy reading through that one more. The problem with the main mod thread is that it does seem to be a constant chase for an Easterly in deepest, darkest FI which rarely comes to fruition. I have no problem with that discussion as it is the model discussion thread. Problem is it seems to always end up with constant sniping when the Easterly disappears and it seems discussion of PM flows are usually considered too IMBY for some reason......

[Deep Snow please]

40 minutes ago, Wardlegacy said:

I think we can still get severe winter weather but we seem to need much colder uppers. Although after going down to Birmingham and Gloucester after Christmas and seeing large snowfalls there then the script isn’t quite as straight forward as we may think. I am sure very similar Synoptics in the past have brought me severe deep snow whereas as Now at 160metres I am getting what I call spring snow that is slushy and has gone by the end of the day. 

 

Birmingham and Gloucester are much further inland than us though, so there's more chances for something substantial. Maybe we need to start building onto the north of Wales...

[Day 10]

12 minutes ago, Dexter said:

The short range thread was a very good idea and I enjoy reading through that one more. The problem with the main mod thread is that it does seem to be a constant chase for an Easterly in deepest, darkest FI which rarely comes to fruition. I have no problem with that discussion as it is the model discussion thread. Problem is it seems to always end up with constant sniping when the Easterly disappears and it seems discussion of PM flows are usually considered too IMBY for some reason......

I do think the odds of an Easterly and a very good one at that are greater than normal this year and I feel we really could be on the cusp of a proper cold spell in around 7-10 days time. I normally wouldn't be bothered with longer range models and forecasts but the factors at play right now are lining up quite nicely.

[Barmada_Casten]

2 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

I do think the odds of an Easterly and a very good one at that are greater than normal this year and I feel we really could be on the cusp of a proper cold spell in around 7-10 days time. I normally wouldn't be bothered with longer range models and forecasts but the factors at play right now are lining up quite nicely.

I highly doubt it! Last chance saloon we are in right now, and given the downgrades.... winter is over! 

[itsnowjoke]

Just now, Barmada_Casten said:

I highly doubt it! Last chance saloon we are in right now, and given the downgrades.... winter is over! 

I'm in total agreement 

[Day 10]

1 minute ago, Barmada_Casten said:

I highly doubt it! Last chance saloon we are in right now, and given the downgrades.... winter is over! 

And why is that then please expand?

[itsnowjoke]

48 minutes ago, Wardlegacy said:

To be honest those charts on the GFS would bring the whole country  a lot of snow. Long way off though 

Even if it's 6 hours away it's usually wrong 

[Day 10]

1 minute ago, itsnowjoke said:

I'm in total agreement 

Am I in the right thread here!

[itsnowjoke]

Just now, Day 10 said:

And why is that then please expand?

Just because of the way everything has gone so far this winter 

[itsnowjoke]

Just now, Day 10 said:

Am I in the right thread here!

Being lead down the garden path too many times 

[itsnowjoke]

Would love to be proved wrong though

[itsnowjoke]

4 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

And why is that then please expand?

You asking him to put on weight 

[Day 10]

1 minute ago, itsnowjoke said:

Just because of the way everything has gone so far this winter 

 

1 minute ago, itsnowjoke said:

Being lead down the garden path too many times 

 

Just now, itsnowjoke said:

Would love to be proved wrong though

Well I don't share your pessimism this time round mate, the default Northern Hemisphere weather pattern is about to go into reverse which will greatly improve our chance of Winter proper.