North west regional discussion

[chiffer]

I wouldn't be to upset if the snow misses me completely i'm just happy that it will be snow and not rain for once.

[toggerob]

MWIS Peak District/Yorkshire Tuesday...

Northeast or easterly mostly 20 or 25mph, possibly 35 or 40mph post dawn. Snow, starting by dawn will fall on and off all day, locally heavy for up to an hour, but particularly western dales often little more than flurries. Risk thunder.

MWIS Peak District/Yorkshire Wednesday...

Frequent snow; risk lightning. Whiteout.

Frequent or sometimes constant snow and sometimes hail. Whiteout likely (due to falling and blowing of previously fallen snow).

-7C: exceptionally cold. Will feel as cold as minus 22C directly in the wind.

[Iceaxecrampon]

42 minutes ago, karyo said:

The shortwave that will be coming down the country in the early hours has already exited southern Norway and it is travelling across the North Sea. 

It looks like it is travelling quite fast.

https://en.sat24.com/en/gb/infraPolair

In a short while we will be able to see the updated precipitation charts from the ICON, gfs and Aprege for the most likely track.

Looks like its going further South 

[captaincroc]

I can't find the updated Arpege for tonight yet? It's still on 6z?

[Astral Goat Juice]

Arpege makes a big deal out of the SW exiting Norway, could be 5-10cm out of that with the hills 20-30cm. 

It then makes a really big deal of the low coming up from the South. Again 5-15cm with the hills 20-30. Some big accumulations there. 

[Astral Goat Juice]

5 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Looks like its going further South 

I believe the trajectory is to enter around Newcastle and follow through the NW of England. 

[Iceaxecrampon]

10 minutes ago, Snow free zone said:

Well thats the very definition of on a knife edge !!

Will wait and see what happens the amount of times the forecast has changed today i'd still say its not nailed on.  Looks good for those to the east and south of the region though

 

[Backtrack]

The snow coming off the North Sea can’t be doing much, even in the east. It’s so light. 

[Day 10]

ICON for Tuesday's low.

 

[karyo]

Just now, Day 10 said:

ICON for Tuesday's low.

 

The ICON is more promising than the Aprege because it gives a larger area of the region a chance. 

The 12z GFS is very good for most of us!  

[Weather-history]

 

[cfallon]

Meto amber warning for greater Manchester. It has us just out of the amber on the maps

[James M]

I'm just inside the amber warning, interesting! Exciting week coming up.

[Day 10]

2 minutes ago, karyo said:

The ICON is more promising than the Aprege because it gives a larger area of the region a chance. 

The 12z GFS is very good for most of us!  

[Chris.R]

WRF max temperature watch.

Predicted maximum temperature: 3.5°C.

Actual maximum temperature: 3.0°C. 

[northwestsnow]

GFS is another bullseye for our region..

Just need misery guts euro4 to play ball now..(which it wont )..

[Day 10]

The ICON for Friday has the snow only making it to South Wales.

[pip22]

Just watched Gav's videos on YouTube he says most of the showers are light even in eastern areas except in East Anglia and South-East where it's heavy.

Edited February 26, 2018 by pip22

[Weather-history]

4 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

 

You know when you look at that precipitation model, I am asking the question why are some areas are under that amber warning when that area of precipitation doesn't appear to hit? Does anyone see my point?

[Astral Goat Juice]

5 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

 

I can understand the amber warning for that area, but a heavy band of snow crosses right across Manchester, Cheshire, Liverpool etc - I expect another warning for the NW.  

[northwestsnow]

As i feared GFS struggling to get the snow into the SW of our region due to the winds being easterly the peaks will absorb the majority of the showers, further north and east there is less pennines to 'get over' as it were.

Hope for those in the SW of the region do OK tho.

[Weather-history]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS is another bullseye for our region..

Just need misery guts euro4 to play ball now..(which it wont )..

Euro 4 06z is a shocker........

 

in terms of accuracy...... look at 3pm 

[captaincroc]

2 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

You know when you look at that precipitation model, I am asking the question why are some areas are under that amber warning when that area of precipitation doesn't appear to hit? Does anyone see my point?

Yes!! I thought the same thing when I saw it before on Twitter??!

[dodge]

Mix a drop of amber with mostly yellow and I'll classify myself as that, just east of the M60 ring road but not up in saddleworth.  Mind you I've been in two north westerly amber warnings this winter and not got the 5-12 cm level mentioned...but maybe this easterly could be different

[northwestsnow]

GFS 12Z really ramping up the shower activity tues/wed now..