North west regional discussion

[severe snowstorm]

6 minutes ago, Darren Bown said:

If that’s 30-60% for each hour, then it should snow for around 6 hours of that period.

I really hope it is correct, but probabilities stated are mostly significantly less than 50/50. Combining that with the fact that these apps change by the hour means that confidence is probably low in that outcome atm.

Edited March 2, 2018 by Dexter

[The Northern Ramper]

5 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

This was put on UKWeatherworld by a member called AnotherWeatherEnthusaist

""Police say wind speeds over the Rakewood Viaduct in Greater Manchester had reached 90mph"

I was unlucky enough to be caught up in the M62 chaos. Tried leaving Milnrow (jct 21) on the M62 around 11am to get back to Leeds. During the course of the next 11 hours I tried to find an alternative route. Gridlock traffic everywhere. I eventually gave up and took upon an epic drive to get home - M62 (westbound), M60, M6 (south), A50 to Derby, then followed signs to Nottingham, to join the M1, then up to Leeds. Got home at 01:30 this morning, after been up since 04:30 the previous morning!! 
I was just to the lee side of the Rakewood Viaduct and obviously a Foehn effect was in force due to the easterly crossing the Pennine chain. I hate hysteria and the mainstream media sensationalising, but conditions around there were truly bad. A snow drift trying to leave Littleborough on the A58 was about 9ft high partially blocking one side of the road and the wind was whipping the snow around to near constant white-out conditions. Crazy! "

 

 

Jeez, why didn't the Met Office issue a red for the Peaks and Pennines? 

There was a pregnant woman stuck at Milnrow this morning that set off from Cumbria to Leeds yesterday morning.

[severe snowstorm]

1 minute ago, Ramp said:

There was a pregnant woman stuck at Milnrow this morning that set off from Cumbria to Leeds yesterday morning.

The question is, was her journey really essential yesterday?

[captaincroc]

7 minutes ago, Dexter said:

I really hope it is correct, but probabilities stated are mostly significantly less than 50/50. Combining that with the fact that these apps change by the hour means that confidence is probably low in that outcome atm.

Yeah, it's a weird one as i know the percentage is low but it's not just localised, it covers S Cheshire and most of Staffs? Maybe the front clears to showers?

[severe snowstorm]

1 minute ago, captaincroc said:

Yeah, it's a weird one as i know the percentage is low but it's not just localised, it covers S Cheshire and most of Staffs? Maybe the front clears to showers?

Interesting - whether it is right or wrong, indicates expectation by one model at least that the second front makes it as far North as you with some decent intensity left. Nothing set in stone certainly.

[The Northern Ramper]

7 minutes ago, Dexter said:

The question is, was her journey really essential yesterday?

Who knows, was she aware?

So many people use weather apps and yesterday wasn't forecast.

[captaincroc]

1 minute ago, Dexter said:

Interesting - whether it is right or wrong, indicates expectation by one model at least that the second front makes it as far North as you with some decent intensity left. Nothing set in stone certainly.

 

That's the strange thing, it's after the front. You can see the front on there...it moves in around 3pm,  light snow for a few hours then stops and clears. the heavier 'showers' arrive a good few hours later... 

 

 

I wonder what model they use?

[Chris.R]

 It’s 1.1°C now. It was below freezing for 48 hours which I have to say makes this a memorable cold spell whatever else happens. We could do with some clear spells this evening now or it’s going to get too marginal already. 

[severe snowstorm]

1 minute ago, Ramp said:

Who knows, was she aware?

So many people use weather apps and yesterday wasn't forecast.

I suppose weather nuts are on the radars/models etc all the time so would possibly be more aware of yesterday. There were warnings in place though, and as such I would assume someone making that sort of journey would have checked conditions/travel etc. 

[Interitus]

39 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Well BBC have st athan which is Cardiff airport at 49cm. We've got 4ft drifts too.

The SYNOP data has Cardiff reaching 51cm

[severe snowstorm]

3 minutes ago, captaincroc said:

 

That's the strange thing, it's after the front. You can see the front on there...it moves in around 3pm,  light snow for a few hours then stops and clears. the heavier 'showers' arrive a good few hours later... 

 

 

I wonder what model they use?

See what you mean. Expecting significant showers from the East maybe?

[captaincroc]

The Lake Effect snow in Ireland is mental!

To be honest, that's what I thought might have happened to the East Coast rather than individual showers? I expected more constant snow, just like Lake Effect.

[Day 10]

Looks like last chance saloon this evening for maybe 2cms of snow lol, once that has past even I am giving up and would welcome Spring with open arms as I'm knackered from this non-event.

Oh well there's always next year.

Edited March 2, 2018 by Day 10

[Day 10]

2 hours ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

FI anyone?

......or have some of you had yer fill?

Expect a correction south

[Day 10]

Quite a few flooding reports down south now.

[captaincroc]

3 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 It’s 1.1°C now. It was below freezing for 48 hours which I have to say makes this a memorable cold spell whatever else happens. We could do with some clear spells this evening now or it’s going to get too marginal already. 

Yes, that was why I was so frustrated yesterday with that front as the temps were below freezing so even a moderate fall would have stuck and could have been played in... today on Crewe it is forecast to be 0c but I know it will be probably 1 or 2c as it was -1c at 8am and the only way is up.  So if we do get anything from that front it will melt as it arrives around 3pm (the warmest part of the day). If it was meant to be heavy then game on but it's meant to be - if it does even reach here - mainly light.  A bit gutting really, I am just hoping the temp does drop quick and the snow does stick, as my nephew who is 5 hasn't seen a decent (Snowman building) fall in is life.

[Interitus]

9 minutes ago, captaincroc said:

The Lake Effect snow in Ireland is mental!

To be honest, that's what I thought might have happened to the East Coast rather than individual showers? I expected more constant snow, just like Lake Effect.

Not lake effect snow

[captaincroc]

9 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Looks like last chance saloon this evening for maybe 2cms of snow lol, once that has past even I am giving up and would welcome Spring with open arms as I'm knackered from this non-event.

Oh well there's always next year.

Yeah, when this spell goes it's all about warmth then! Slushy lowland snow I don't care about, bring me sunshine! haha.

[Wardlegacy]

Interesting clouds moving in against the windflow 

[Barmada_Casten]

Innorth Devon and this is the snow I got. A dusty MGM that doesn't cover all surfaces. Areas the the north east south and west recording well over 20cms. FML.

[Chris.R]

Liverpool TAF still looking good.  12 hours of light snow. 

The report was made 26 minutes ago, at 11:10UTC

Forecast valid from 02 at 12 UTC to 03 at 12 UTC

Wind 20 kt from the East with gusts up to 35 kt

Visibility 10 km or more

Scattered clouds at a height of 2000 ft

Probability 30% :

Temporary
from 02 at 12 UTC to 02 at 15 UTC

Wind 28 kt from the East with gusts up to 45 kt

Probability 30% :

Temporary
from 02 at 18 UTC to 03 at 12 UTC

Visibility: 5000 m

Broken clouds at a height of 1400 ft

light snow

Becoming
from 02 at 21 UTC to 02 at 24 UTC

Wind 14 kt from the East

Probability 30% :

Temporary
from 03 at 00 UTC to 03 at 12 UTC

Wind 17 kt from the East with gusts up to 27 kt

Edited March 2, 2018 by Chris.R

[JeffC]

6 minutes ago, Interitus said:

Not lake effect snow

what's the true definition of Lake Effect then please? can it only be applied to Gt Lakes etc where it's over fresh water?

There must be a defined limit regarding the area of water required Vs Temperature? I daren't even mention lake effect snow in my house because we can see Coniston Water from my bedroom, office etc, but have got nobbut a thick sprinkling really, so something of a let down!

[Day 10]

The updated warning still clinging on lol.

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

3 minutes ago, JeffC said:

what's the true definition of Lake Effect then please? can it only be applied to Gt Lakes etc where it's over fresh water?

There must be a defined limit regarding the area of water required Vs Temperature? I daren't even mention lake effect snow in my house because we can see Coniston Water from my bedroom, office etc, but have got nobbut a thick sprinkling really, so something of a let down!

It called lake effect because it has the effect of a lake. So can be sea river or any mass of water

Edited March 2, 2018 by Stratocumulus perlucidus

[JeffC]

Just now, Stratocumulus perlucidus said:

It called lake effect because it acts like a lake. So can be sea river or any mass of water

understood, so why is the easterly blowing over the Irish Sea creating snow shower not lake effect?