North west regional discussion

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

25 years ago this week, there was a northerly flow and snow showers developed inland, forecasts had underestimated convective development. Infact the winds on that Monday came in from the ENE and showered developed along the Pennines pushing westwards.

Interesting, perhaps thats why meto are going for the posibilty of significant accumulations.

Ive just been out and the wind is already bonechilling..

And thats before the really cold uppers hit !

[Backtrack]

Tuesday seems to be getting upgraded each time I look. Could be great for us 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Backtrack said:

Tuesday seems to be getting upgraded each time I look. Could be great for us 

it would be great if we got snow overnight monday into tues !!

[karyo]

Looking at the precipitation charts from different models it looks like the feature that comes from the north sea on Tuesday morning will largely miss us. Lincolnshire, Midlands, south Wales seem to be the favoured track. This may still change but the fact they all pretty much agree is not good news. 

After that we have to rely on showers and the best day o far looks like it is going to be Wednesday. By Thursday the proximity of the low coming from the south looks like pushing the shower activity to Northeast England and Scotland with us mainly dry. 

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, karyo said:

Looking at the precipitation charts from different models it looks like the feature that comes from the north sea on Tuesday morning will largely miss us. Lincolnshire, Midlands, south Wales seem to be the favoured track. This may still change but the fact they all pretty much agree is not good news. 

After that we have to rely on showers and the best day o far looks like it is going to be Wednesday. By Thursday the proximity of the low coming from the south looks like pushing the shower activity to Northeast England and Scotland with us mainly dry. 

gfs?

looks a direct hit IMBY

[Chris.R]

Wow in the Yorkshire/E England thread they’re already calling this a damp squib. If  I was liveing anywhere in the east I would be absolutely ecstatic right now. 

[frosty ground]

4 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Wow in the Yorkshire/E England thread they’re already calling this a damp squib. If  I was liveing anywhere in the east I would be absolutely ecstatic right now. 

Really...... can they see the wood for the tress 

[karyo]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

gfs?

looks a direct hit IMBY

I never use this chart as it is very misleading - it overdoes precipitation. Use the net weather one here and you will see what I mean: https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/gfs

Also the Aprege: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege.php?ech=3&mode=1&map=330

And the ECM from the Icelandic Met Office: http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec

They all show the path as Lincolnshire into Mids into South Wales. Of course it may change is later output but as things stand we are not in the path.

[Winter Hill]

4 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Wow in the Yorkshire/E England thread they’re already calling this a damp squib. If  I was liveing anywhere in the east I would be absolutely ecstatic right now. 

Funny folk them tykes 

 

[pip22]

6 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Wow in the Yorkshire/E England thread they’re already calling this a damp squib. If  I was liveing anywhere in the east I would be absolutely ecstatic right now. 

Isnt it abit too early for them yet? I expect the showers get going in the evening there especially overnight!

[shadowfax]

58 minutes ago, iand61 said:

TBH it’s probably a fantastic day to be out walking and if I didn’t have a couple of jobs to finish off i’d be off like a shot.

need plenty of layers though.

Been out with Hounds wearing 3 layers on body plus hat and gloves- just right!

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, karyo said:

I never use this chart as it is very misleading - it overdoes precipitation. Use the net weather one here and you will see what I mean: https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/gfs

Also the Aprege: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege.php?ech=3&mode=1&map=330

And the ECM from the Icelandic Met Office: http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec

They all show the path as Lincolnshire into Mids into South Wales. Of course it may change is later output but as things stand we are not in the path.

Guess we will see K..

Meto clearly think we will get some, quite a lot actually.

So i will stick with them for now.

[Spah1]

Looks like Met may be swaying to a warm up next Sat. 

[karyo]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Guess we will see K..

Meto clearly think we will get some, quite a lot actually.

So i will stick with them for now.

I am only talking about what I see in the models for Tuesday. Yesterday's models were more favourable for us. Still time to change.

[Chris.R]

4 minutes ago, pip22 said:

Isnt it abit too early for them yet? I expect the showers get going in the evening there especially overnight!

 That’s the point though they’re looking at things 4 days ahead and already writing there chances off. 

[iand61]

1 minute ago, shadowfax said:

Been out with Hounds wearing 3 layers on body plus hat and gloves- just right!

Aye it looks grand out and the dogs look to be enjoying it.

i bet the long distance views are fantastic with Snowdonia easily visible from the top of Rooley Moor and Blackpool Tower from Deerplay war memorial.

i might just treat myself to a look out later.

[Winter Hill]

2 minutes ago, iand61 said:

Aye it looks grand out and the dogs look to be enjoying it.

i bet the long distance views are fantastic with Snowdonia easily visible from the top of Rooley Moor and Blackpool Tower from Deerplay war memorial.

i might just treat myself to a look out later.

Get the same views from Rivington pike.

[Joe Bloggs]

17 minutes ago, karyo said:

I am only talking about what I see in the models for Tuesday. Yesterday's models were more favourable for us. Still time to change.

06z GFS shows us staying generally dry until Wednesday afternoon http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK06_81_43.png

[Wardlegacy]

25 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Looks like Met may be swaying to a warm up next Sat. 

Ferguson isn’t with the Met now. Although I think Meteogroup and the Met Office are seeing milder incursions into the SW and that is where Ian ferguson is forecaster for.

[northwestsnow]

GFS bringing in heavy snow friday

[karyo]

4 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

06z GFS shows us staying generally dry until Wednesday afternoon http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK06_81_43.png

Yes, not what we want to see re: Tuesday. 

On the plus side it places the late week low further south and east which keeps us cold.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, karyo said:

Yes, not what we want to see re: Tuesday. 

On the plus side it places the late week low further south and east which keeps us cold.

yes not seeing the rain shadow later in the week but maybe we will as we get closer.

[karyo]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

yes not seeing the rain shadow later in the week but maybe we will as we get closer.

Yes, the main thing is to stay cold. The 0z had the low further west which is not good for the longevity of the cold spell. So that's a good move from the 6z and the ICON agrees. 

[Alexis]

59 minutes ago, karyo said:

Looking at the precipitation charts from different models it looks like the feature that comes from the north sea on Tuesday morning will largely miss us. Lincolnshire, Midlands, south Wales seem to be the favoured track. This may still change but the fact they all pretty much agree is not good news. 

After that we have to rely on showers and the best day o far looks like it is going to be Wednesday. By Thursday the proximity of the low coming from the south looks like pushing the shower activity to Northeast England and Scotland with us mainly dry. 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm

FAX charts show the system moving east to west, even exiting Ireland. Looks great for a lot of the country. Note how it becomes a complete system in the Atlantic on Thursday. It’s gaining strength  all the while. No decaying system here.

Edited February 25, 2018 by Alexis

[damianslaw]

Been looking at archive weather charts, and memories of 26/27 Jan 96 keep coming to mind. Synoptics on offer Tuesday/Wed almost a carbon copy. What did we see - much of the region had heavy snow from a feature that tracked from east to west over the Pennines, we had 5 inches, I think Manchester did well as well.

This time we will have stronger convection and a deeper cold pool.

Its rare to say expect all precipitation to be of snow, but on this occasion its justified, Parameters are perfect. No marginality whatsoever, this is going to be an impressive spell for the time of year, indeed I think it would have been just as cold had it occured earlier in the winter, in some respects this is optimum time for extreme depth of cold, given how SST values are at there lowest.

Next weekend could bring some significant long lasting heavy snowfall.