North west regional discussion

[northwestsnow]

well guys if ECM is right then we have 10 days of bitter cold and snow showers a plenty..

Could be a historic period of weather for  the UK and one for the archives !!

Hope everyone waking up is as happy as i am !!

[geri]

Would that include nw coast ? 

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, geri said:

Would that include nw coast ? 

Well its only my opinion but i would say there is a possibilty the snow showers could get all the way to you, yes.

With showers/troughs its to hard to say until much closer to the event , the dreaded euro4 will be in range soon, but the meto/bbc text is a huge upgrade for our regon with mention of accumulations, possibly disruptive!

Edited February 24, 2018 by northwestsnow

[Weather-history]

Wednesday into Thursday look the coldest days at the moment. It's going to be a real shock, it's been a long time since we had sub -10C 850hpa air combined with wind. A lazy and desiccating wind, looks like the type of air that sucks the moisture out of everything. 

Could be severe penetrating black frosts if there is a lack of any protective snow cover not sure how spring bulbs will cope with this type of airmass and with the wind at this time of year.

 

 

[cheshire snow]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks like a prime spot for fridays low !!

Be careful what you wish for....

Yes Fridays low would be nice however that system introduces milder air from the South and smashes the block away so net result end of cold spell and rapid thaw of snow.

So if we go the ECM route cold locked in and plenty more snow.

Depends on your wishes I suppose but for me I would rather the ECM Over the GFS.

C.S

[joggs]

I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad run will not prevail ie,introducing mild.

This cold will not be swept away.

Another reload from ne  after next wkend.

[dodge]

Embrace the headlines that will be made south of our region, there may be a bit of giddyness and excitement to start with but when it starts to disrupt essential services and stops people moving about they may tire of it by the end of the week.  We could think ourselves lucky to escape the worst of it.  

[iand61]

1 minute ago, dodgeredee said:

Embrace the headlines that will be made south of our region, there may be a bit of giddyness and excitement to start with but when it starts to disrupt essential services and stops people moving about they may tire of it by the end of the week.  We could think ourselves lucky to escape the worst of it.  

Dodge with that last sentence are you Di Oxberry in disguise. 

i know what you mean though, by mid January 2010 I was sick of shovelling snow and driving on icy roads packed with double parked cars.

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, iand61 said:

Dodge with that last sentence are you Di Oxberry in disguise. 

i know what you mean though, by mid January 2010 I was sick of shovelling snow and driving on icy roads packed with double parked cars.

Ive analyzed the charts this morning and im absolutely convinced we are going to get decent snow showers Ian- in fact places like Rochdale / littleborough would be my sweet spots tues into wed.. no shelter from the pennines in an east/ENE wind- TBH with an EC mean at 96 showing this i can see why bbc/meto are going for heavy snow showers tues night into wed-

That looks fabulous for convective snow showers into our region to me.

i should add places further north than Rochdale onto the list of sweet spots.

edit  if the winds get any sort of southerly element then that changes the game for the worse..(rain shadow)

Edited February 24, 2018 by northwestsnow

[SP1986]

39 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Wednesday into Thursday look the coldest days at the moment. It's going to be a real shock, it's been a long time since we had sub -10C 850hpa air combined with wind. A lazy and desiccating wind, looks like the type of air that sucks the moisture out of everything. 

Could be severe penetrating black frosts if there is a lack of any protective snow cover not sure how spring bulbs will cope with this type of airmass and with the wind at this time of year.

 

 

Spring bulbs will cope fine as they can tolerate extreme cold. In fact they require cold. Here the Daffodils have bloomed already so Spring has been

[iand61]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Ive analyzed the charts this morning and im absolutely convinced we are going to get decent snow showers Ian- in fact places like Rochdale / littleborough would be my sweet spots tues into wed.. no shelter from the pennines in an east/ENE wind- TBH with an EC mean at 96 showing this i can see why bbc/meto are going for heavy snow showers tues night into wed-

That looks fabulous for convective snow showers into our region to me.

Agreed mate, I usually do we’ll out of an easterly and am expecting this occasion to deliver.

how much though we’ll see but forecasts seem to be upgrading chances in our region.

[northwestsnow]

Well the METO charts suggest E/ENE winds but looking at EC by thur they looks to be swinging more ESE which is not a direction we would want.

I may be wrong on that, would be interested to hear thoughts from others..

[captaincroc]

3 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

I will leave this metoffice update for our region.

Outlook for Monday to Wednesday:

Staying bitterly cold, with snow showers and overnight sharp frosts. An increasing risk of heavy snow showers later Tuesday and into Wednesday, leading to the risk of disruption in places.

And the BBC for same period..

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday

Sunday will be dry with sunny spells but it will feel cold. The start of next week will stay cold and breezy with a wind chill factor. Monday should stay largely dry with some sunshine but there will be an increasing chance of some snow showers later on Monday night and into Tuesday. Potential for some locally significant snow accumulations through Tuesday.

 

Fingers crosed guys its sounding gooooooood

 

Morning buddy.  This backs up my thoughts I put yesterday. I know i sound like I am hopecasting (maybe a tinge...) but with all these uber cold and extreme upper temps coming across a warmish North Sea I feel we are in kinda uncharted territory in regards to what might explode in the atmosphere, shower wise.  I honestly think there could be more organised bands of areas of heavy snow sweeping the country midweek and because of the temps being so low, every flake will stick so only a few showers will give a decent covering. This easterly isn't normal and is SO potent, exciting to see what fun and games will pop up.

I a genuinely happy with any type of covering as I have not seen powder snow blowing about since I was a child as I grew up n Crewe... Anything else is a bonus.

[trickydicky]

Am I right in thinking a little feature is expected to run south west across our area coming in from the North Sea overnight Monday into Tuesday giving an organised area of snow? 

[Joe Bloggs]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well the METO charts suggest E/ENE winds but looking at EC by thur they looks to be swinging more ESE which is not a direction we would want.

I may be wrong on that, would be interested to hear thoughts from others..

To be honest mate I think you’re barking up the wrong tree. The snow shadow only really comes into play when frontal precipitation is involved (think a slider event, or a low pushing up from the south), combined with winds from the SE, East or NE.

Convective showers or troughs are completely different affairs and showers shouldn’t have much difficulty getting across the Pennines if the flow is dynamic and cold enough (certainly looks that way), no matter if the wind is from the SE, East or NE. In fact I’ve noticed in the past that showers can actually reinvigorate as they reach the Pennines with East Manchester getting a good covering. 

I think it’s looking like a hit and miss affair for next week, but convective easterlies are NOT necessarily a dead duck for the NW, especially with a cold pool as deep and as unstable as this. 

I think most of the region will get at least a few flurries with the sweet spots (Pennine areas) maybe getting 10cm plus, but that’s maybe being conservative. 

To be frank I wouldn’t bank on a low pushing in from the south, then we would have to start worrying about the rain shadow effect and we could well miss out, unless the winds are very slack. 

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, trickydicky said:

Am I right in thinking a little feature is expected to run south west across our area coming in from the North Sea overnight Monday into Tuesday giving an organised area of snow? 

Yes i think so, TBH showers are going to pop up almost anywhere next week IMO.

[karyo]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well the METO charts suggest E/ENE winds but looking at EC by thur they looks to be swinging more ESE which is not a direction we would want.

I may be wrong on that, would be interested to hear thoughts from others..

The start NE and then the direction varies, gradually becoming more easterly and then possibly ESE. I think that's a good thing as areas that miss out in the NE can then get some activity as the wind direction changes a bit.

Still disagreement regarding Tuesday's trough. The gfs has it further north with mainly Cumbria benefiting while the ECM has it further south missing much of our region. The exact position won't be decided till Monday I think.

The good thing is that both models are are starting to pick up a lot of showery activity and troughs.

[Alexis]

7 minutes ago, trickydicky said:

Am I right in thinking a little feature is expected to run south west across our area coming in from the North Sea overnight Monday into Tuesday giving an organised area of snow? 

Yes. Very excited after seeing that system! 

Edited February 24, 2018 by Alexis

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Joe Bloggs said:

To be honest mate I think you’re barking up the wrong tree. The snow shadow only really comes into play when frontal precipitation is involved (think a slider event, or a low pushing up from the south), combined with winds from the SE, East or NE.

Convective showers or troughs are completely different affairs and showers shouldn’t have much difficulty getting across the Pennines if the flow is dynamic and cold enough (certainly looks that way), no matter if the wind is from the SE, East or NE. In fact I’ve noticed in the past that showers can actually reinvigorate as they reach the Pennines with East Manchester getting a good covering. 

I think it’s looking like a hit and miss affair for next week, but convective easterlies are NOT necessarily a dead duck for the NW, especially with a cold pool as deep and as unstable as this. 

I think most of the region will get at least a few flurries with the sweet spots (Pennine areas) maybe getting 10cm plus, but that’s maybe being conservative. 

To be frank I wouldn’t bank on a low pushing in from the south, then we would have to start worrying about the rain shadow effect and we could well miss out, unless the winds are very slack. 

Great post Joe..

My childhood snow events were almost exclusively east/North easterlies..

The bbc/meto text is a pretty huge upgrade - and the models could still be underplaying convection at this range.

TBH i think i'm going to give euro 4 a miss this week as it just annoys me every time i look at it!!

If EC is right the cold spell will extend to next sund/mon and by that time i will be happy for spring i think.

 

[itsnowjoke]

I just wanted some snow to play in I don't want these daft temps by day I'm ready for spring now never thought I would say that but I could feel the warmth of the sun on my face yesterday and the day before and it was great

[karyo]

11 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

 

To be frank I wouldn’t bank on a low pushing in from the south, then we would have to start worrying about the rain shadow effect and we could well miss out, unless the winds are very slack. 

Agreed! We want the low to stay further south as per the ECM.

Edited February 24, 2018 by karyo

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, karyo said:

The start NE and then the direction varies, gradually becoming more easterly and then possibly ESE. I think that's a good thing as areas that miss out in the NE can then get some activity as the wind direction changes a bit.

Still disagreement regarding Tuesday's trough. The gfs has it further north with mainly Cumbria benefiting while the ECM has it further south missing much of our region. The exact position won't be decided till Monday I think.

The good thing is that both models are are starting to pick up a lot of showery activity and troughs.

nice post K..

Perhaps joe is right that the rain shadow only really comes into effect in frontal situations..

Sounds to me like BBC/METO expect the trough to hit us but we'll see.

[karyo]

3 minutes ago, itsnowjoke said:

I just wanted some snow to play in I don't want these daft temps by day I'm ready for spring now never thought I would say that but I could feel the warmth of the sun on my face yesterday and the day before and it was great

There are some cheap flights to La Palma at the moment. Book one. 

[Joe Bloggs]

I’ll just leave the latest Arpege here... ;-)

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Joe Bloggs said:

I’ll just leave the latest Arpege here... ;-)

Backs up METO/BBC and looks juicy!!