North west regional discussion

[Spah1]

13 minutes ago, Miamay said:

What is the latest update ??

Freezing cold. More chance of snow for us 

as next week goes on. 

[Day 10]

10 minutes ago, Miamay said:

What is the latest update ??

Off to work so no time again. The short answer for our region is turning bitterly cold by Monday top temp 1c, turning ever colder through the week. Powder snow chances yes, were & when will still change. Might start doing charts with snow chances from the weekend.

[Day 10]

22 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

Do you reckon that low coming up from the south on ecm would reach us...if it does we will be buried.

No point looking past day 5 esp when the weather is in reverse. Great runs again this morning.

[HafrenLMP1]

Weather forecast on Chris Evans' Radio 2 show this morning mentioned 'colder next week, with some snow'..... Hmm..

[frosty ground]

Met Office App update from Sunday...... Max 0 , 0 , -1, -2

It's gonna be a cold one.

Also some random snowfall this morning very very light but still snow!

[captaincroc]

12 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Met Office App update from Sunday...... Max 0 , 0 , -1, -2

It's gonna be a cold one.

Also some random snowfall this morning very very light but still snow!

I was just thinking that, i know the super cold doesn't arrive until Sunday but as the uppers don't need to be low for snow with an easterly I wondered if we could get some light showers before the main course! haha

....so when can we start to tell people? 

[pip22]

I've looked on the BBC weather app and it looks abit underwheming so I just deleted the app too because its rubbish.

The models this morning looking really great this morning!!  Keep it coming!!

 

 

 

[chris78]

Would it be possible to ban any reference to what weather apps say over the next week or so.    They are ALL absolute garbage, at most things but particularly rain and snow

It would be right pain in the weeble if the thread was full of sad faces becasuse their weather apps said snow yesterday but dont today.

Well done pip for deleting yours....dont look looking for a better one...it doesnt exist!

[frosty ground]

1 hour ago, frosty ground said:

Met Office App update from Sunday...... Max 0 , 0 , -1, -2

It's gonna be a cold one.

Also some random snowfall this morning very very light but still snow!

Met Office App update from Sunday...... Max 0 , 0 , -1, -3 

@chris78You can ignore the Apps if you wish but they give a guide and should be treated as such!

[griff74]

I still can't believe my luck that this is heading towards us on a week that I randomly picked to have off work!!! 

[dodge]

Well the latest GFS certainly not backing down, every so slightly shift northwards of the cold and showing a direct hit from the Beasterly... (ps this is not me saying it will happen this way only what the model is showing...I'm the last person to go down the ski-jump ramp)..

Thought I'd copy this over from the Mod thread because even though it might not work out this way it's quite good to look at considering we very rarely get reverse zonal winds in our forecasts..

Edited February 22, 2018 by dodgeredee

[griff74]

I have no idea what that means apart from all that purple heading our way means cold, cold, cold!!!

[Snow free zone]

3 hours ago, Spah1 said:

Freezing cold. More chance of snow for us 

as next week goes on. 

I think talking of snow and upgrades at the moment is all a little premature.  We have seen already that snow charts and predictions from the models are wildly inaccurate (the recent tepid NW blast for one) there were charts being posted on here showing us all under inches of snow - we got into the realistic time frames and surprise surprise nothing even close to those "armageddon" charts materialised.

I see something similar happening this time - you have to use your own personal experiences when looking at these outputs. IMBY easterly winds will bring dry and cold weather backed up at the moment by this https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcw1fe28j#?date=2018-02-28

Yes i know that forecast goes out to a week away but i'd take forecast that over a GFS or ECM prediction any day of the week. For here at least I expect little change from this even when/if we see bands of showers trying to head over the pennines. Seeing posts in the MO thread and to a lesser extent in here of widespread snow and disruption are IMO a little misleading. Yes some will get snow in our region but widespread .... I really cannot see it. 

 

 

 

[captaincroc]

56 minutes ago, dodgeredee said:

Well the latest GFS certainly not backing down, every so slightly shift northwards of the cold and showing a direct hit from the Beasterly... (ps this is not me saying it will happen this way only what the model is showing...I'm the last person to go down the ski-jump ramp)..

Thought I'd copy this over from the Mod thread because even though it might not work out this way it's quite good to look at considering we very rarely get reverse zonal winds in our forecasts..

Loving the fact everything is nudged north again, as long as it's trending in that direction I then think we could be secure in this outcome! 

[Iceaxecrampon]

To be honest the 06zGFS looks as dry as a bone for us this side of the Pennines with this "Beasterly" - even more so for us sandwiched between the hills and the coast - only until +348 does there look like any meaningful ppn but as ever thats FI.

[Joe Bloggs]

Meteo Group app. I don’t think I’ve ever seen such significant cold forecast for Manchester - this one is normally conservative 

[Geordiesnow]

I've no doubt that the hills to the East will stop most if not all of the showers heading this way but troughs are different as the cloud height should be higher and the PPN more organised.

Also IF it's going to be a true convective easterly then you will see how the North Sea can produce proper heavy snow showers and frequent at the same time! Unlike the infamous Irish Sea with its small speckle showers although in fairness up here we did see some beefy snow showers from the last cold spell which included the blob that directly hit us but frequency of such showers was s bit dissapointing and shower activity across the region was fairly poor I recalled.

[Thunder Snow]

Well im ready for the cold DRY frosty Easterly lol

[karyo]

3 minutes ago, Thunder Snow said:

Well im ready for the cold DRY frosty Easterly lol

Better than a watery westerly

[Wardlegacy]

I think we live in a region of two halves and I would be very surprised if showers didn’t make their way over to the east of the region and there could well be land based convection which in the last has produced heavy continuous snow for parts of the region. 

[karyo]

8 minutes ago, Wardlegacy said:

I think we live in a region of two halves and I would be very surprised if showers didn’t make their way over to the east of the region and there could well be land based convection which in the last has produced heavy continuous snow for parts of the region. 

There were plenty of snow showers during the March 2013 easterly event. Unfortunately, the accumulations of snow were brief here because the sun between the showers was strong enough. 

Maybe if we get heavy snow showers they can give a decent covering that will not disappear. There is of course the possibility of a frontal event. 

Snow cover or not I am looking forward to the potent easterly and the hard frosts. 

[robbo88]

It's already feeling bitter out today. Sun shining and only 3c 

[karyo]

Looking better for a frost tonight as drier and clearer air is moving in from the southeast.

[Wardlegacy]

13 minutes ago, karyo said:

There were plenty of snow showers during the March 2013 easterly event. Unfortunately, the accumulations of snow were brief here because the sun between the showers was strong enough. 

Maybe if we get heavy snow showers they can give a decent covering that will not disappear. There is of course the possibility of a frontal event. 

Snow cover or not I am looking forward to the potent easterly and the hard frosts. 

My memory is fading but didn’t 2013 bring frontal snow? I know it was some of the deepest snow I have ever seen around here and I am in a prone area! 

[karyo]

2 minutes ago, Wardlegacy said:

My memory is fading but didn’t 2013 bring frontal snow? I know it was some of the deepest snow I have ever seen around here and I am in a prone area! 

There was frontal snow with a large rain shadow over greater Manchester. There was big variations of snow depths when this happened. There was just a dusting in Manchester.