North west regional discussion

[trickydicky]

On our side of the Pennines we are likely to get the 'best' of any clear periods and dodge the worst of any wind. As such if we do get a bit of snow then we could potentially be looking at the lowest night time minima (in England) being in our neck of the woods. And under these sorts of synoptics that could be pretty low, like minus high teens low in valleys. It doesn't even matter how close you are to the sea in the West really if the wind is from the East, I seem to remember Bridgefoot, which is about 2 miles in land from the sea near Workington, getting regular -15-18's during December 2010.

[Hocus Pocus]

Just now, trickydicky said:

On our side of the Pennines we are likely to get the 'best' of any clear periods and dodge the worst of any wind. As such if we do get a bit of snow then we could potentially be looking at the lowest night time minima (in England) being in our neck of the woods. And under these sorts of synoptics that could be pretty low, like minus high teens low in valleys. It doesn't even matter how close you are to the sea in the West really if the wind is from the East, I seem to remember Bridgefoot, which is about 2 miles in land from the sea near Workington, getting regular -15-18's during December 2010.

We’re more likely to be plagued by plates of cloud, though the nighttime minimas would still be at freezing or below.

[severe snowstorm]

43 minutes ago, karyo said:

I can't believe that we have a good chance to experience the most exciting weather in years and some people want the cold spell to downgrade so that the infrastructure and the birds don't suffer! 

We experience boring, benign, mild, sleep inducing weather all year round and with climate change cold spells get less frequent and severe so why should we feel guilty for craving this event? 

I hope the charts stay as they are until they get to T0. Nature will cope and if a school closes for a day the world won't collapse. 

These people always come out the woodwork every time. We can't control the weather. The weather will do what the weather will do. I am also excited by the potential prospect of some very interesting weather!

Edited February 20, 2018 by Dexter

[Deep Snow please]

1 minute ago, Dexter said:

These people always come out the woodwork every time. We can't control the weather. The weather will do what the weather will do. I am also excited by the potential prospect of some very interesting weather!

And they never seem to have an issue with the massive heatwaves that cause huge droughts and kill off the elderly as well. Anyway onto the weather;

The North West finally gets to join the snow party at T+201, and entire 66 hours after the north east.

[Deep Snow please]

You couldn't make these charts up could you?

[Iceaxecrampon]

52 minutes ago, karyo said:

Are you looking at precipitation charts nearly a week away? 

Yes.

There out there so they're fair game.

All with a pinch of salt I know.

[karyo]

15 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Yes.

There out there so they're fair game.

All with a pinch of salt I know.

Fair enough. 

The only thing I don't like in the models currently is the orientation of the high pressure towards the end of the week. It points the cold towards the Alps and we get a southeasterly flow which warms up the uppers thanks to the interaction with the mountain range. It will feel cold at the surface of course but if the orientation was further west we would get the cold uppers much earlier. 

[frosty ground]

30 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

You couldn't make these charts up could you?

The issue with Low res charts.

[severe snowstorm]

45 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

You couldn't make these charts up could you?

The model really hates that part of the Lancs Coast lol. I know it is low res, but how!!!?

[griff74]

Well it seems I could not have picked a better week to take off (using up some holidays) as next week, am looking forward to this very much, especially as I don't have to deal with it at 7am to defrost the car to get to work!

Better stock up on some wood for the burner in the living room this weekend!! 

[Deep Snow please]

Spring is in the air, finally feels as though we're putting winter behind us. The birds are singing, the sun is out. Not a cloud in sight. Bring on the sunshine, bring on the warmth. Can't wait for the heatwave in March!

[Snow free zone]

55 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

You couldn't make these charts up could you?

May be low res but won't be far off the mark.

We are very sheltered here from any precipitation from both the east and south east especially when the offshore winds kick in - so i expect IMBY to be mainly dry and cold.  I may even stick my neck out now and say we may well end up being the only part of the country that remains green and not white.

[Iceaxecrampon]

8 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

You couldn't make these charts up could you?

Seriously - that is just North of me at Salwick. 

[karyo]

It feels awesome to read GP's post in the stratosphere thread. Basically, this is a huge stratospheric warming event and it looks like the AO will stay negative through March into early April. 

This cold spell is probably just the start in a series of events! 

[Deep Snow please]

2 minutes ago, karyo said:

It feels awesome to read GP's post in the stratosphere thread. Basically, this is a huge stratospheric warming event and it looks like the AO will stay negative through March into early April. 

This cold spell is probably just the start in a series of events! 

Yeah, could be heading for something. Not just short term.

Long term there's a lot of discussion about solar minimums from guys like BFTP in other areas which flies over my head, but the general gist is that winters are going to get harsh for the next 25 years or so, possibly to the point of leaving us wondering how they were so mild. Even discussion of a move into a little ice age where winters outlast their metereological dates by some distance. This cold spell could actually be an early introduction to our new winter pattern if my rudimentary understanding is correct. We've been edging that way for years. 

Edited February 20, 2018 by Deep Snow please

[alr1970]

1 hour ago, Deep Snow please said:

There's definitely something in the air. Most excited this forum has been for several years, and possibly a bit to easy to get swept up in it. 

Even if this fails miserably there's still the possibility of easily beating the winter's deepest snowfall so far - 3 inches on the 11th February - given that's from the wrong wind direction and in late February/early March that speaks volumes for the sheer insanity of the synoptics. I must admit I may be starting to go from "these are great charts" to "this is a great event" in my thinking.

But look at what's following behind it - more than enough for a good covering, anyway precipitation charts that far in the future are toilet paper.  

I think your whole post says it all: "easily beating the winter's deepest snowfall so far - 3 inches on the 11th February". So far this winter, I have not seen a single uniform covering of snow at home in Chorlton. Considering just how many chances there have been, that shows the power of the basin effect.

From the perspective of that grey patch - the Manchester basin - it's entirely believable that we will miss out on some of the snowfall. It's why Manchester is here: it's a consistently drizzly place, but not especially wet overall. The hills surrounding it drain a lot of the moisture from the airflow over it, from all directions except a straight westerly. In a sw-erly it's not uncommon to see greens and yellows on the radar become blues over the basin, then reinvigorate as the airmass heads back up over the hills around Oldham.

I'll be very pleased to see decent snow at our level next week, and also surprised. See my profile pic for the last decent snow here: 9 inches in Jan 10.

[karyo]

1 minute ago, Deep Snow please said:

Yeah, could be heading for something.

 

Long term there's a lot of discussion about solar minimums from guys like BFTP in other areas which flies over my head, but the general gist is that winters are going to get harsh for the next 25 years or so, possibly to the point of leaving us wondering how they were so mild. 

I would love to believe that we will have harsh winters to look forward for the next 25 years but I can't see it be anywhere near as good. I just expect more frequent cold spells and generally colder winters due to the southerly tracking jet. 

The planet is sadly warming fast and there is less cold air to go about. By the way, Arctic ice is at a record low and the last record was only set a year ago! 

[karyo]

2 minutes ago, alr1970 said:

I think your whole post says it all: "easily beating the winter's deepest snowfall so far - 3 inches on the 11th February". So far this winter, I have not seen a single uniform covering of snow at home in Chorlton. Considering just how many chances there have been, that shows the power of the basin effect.

From the perspective of that grey patch - the Manchester basin - it's entirely believable that we will miss out on some of the snowfall. It's why Manchester is here: it's a consistently drizzly place, but not especially wet overall. The hills surrounding it drain a lot of the moisture from the airflow over it, from all directions except a straight westerly. In a sw-erly it's not uncommon to see greens and yellows on the radar become blues over the basin, then reinvigorate as the airmass heads back up over the hills around Oldham.

I'll be very pleased to see decent snow at our level next week, and also surprised. See my profile pic for the last decent snow here: 9 inches in Jan 10.

I agree but no to worry, if we get a direct easterly the snow showers will cross the Pennines. I have seen it happen several times. The problem is when we have low pressure to the southwest which creates the dreaded rainshadow effect. 

With a bit of luck, after the easterly the high pressure will move to Greenland with a cold attack from the north, northeast or northwest.. 

[Iceaxecrampon]

I know the ppn charts are aguide but as I said they're all well and out there.

But

Monday

Wednesday 

Friday

You cannot make this one up 

 

If your a fledgling Bird -  Young Lamb or Old and Infirm head towards the Sunny Fylde its going to be toasty warm?

The other side of the coin -  I hope if this spell verifies all of the above will have a positive outcome - I have experienced enough cold in mountainous extreme conditions but I chose to go looking for them.

 

[karyo]

7 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

I know the ppn charts are aguide but as I said they're all well and out there.

But

Monday

Wednesday 

Friday

You cannot make this one up 

 

If your a fledgling Bird -  Young Lamb or Old and Infirm head towards the Sunny Fylde its going to be toasty warm?

The other side of the coin -  I hope if this spell verifies all of the above will have a positive outcome - I have experienced enough cold in mountainous extreme conditions but I chose to go looking for them.

 

Are you going to be knocking your head against the wall after every run till next week? 

[Snow free zone]

10 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

 

You cannot make this one up 

 

 

 

Funny isn't it ...thats almost the identical area (west of the M6) that misses out on the white stuff when it comes from the "other" direction as well - nothing new but like you say you cannot make it up 

Edited February 20, 2018 by Snow free zone

[Deep Snow please]

Just now, karyo said:

Are you going to be knocking your head against the wall after every run till next week? 

Yes, and he won't be the only one.

It's going to be a bit chilly though. You know it's bad when the express can actually use charts to back up their usual drivel rather than James Madden quotes.

There was a winchill chart with -13s and -15 windchill temperatures in our region. If we can't get troughs for snow we're going to be cold.

[Deep Snow please]

Netweather forecast fairly confident of snow showers here over the weekend. 

7.73mm of precipation so that's 7.73cm of snowfall by Monday night? With more predicted for Tuesday - Friday as well.

 

All for fun, but just shows that this could actually be fairly significant.

[SP1986]

It'll feel cold although temperature projection suggest no ice days here. Even in 2010 we did not achieve an ice day here with the lowest being 0.7C in the day. 

Edited February 20, 2018 by SP1986

[trickydicky]

1 hour ago, karyo said:

It feels awesome to read GP's post in the stratosphere thread. Basically, this is a huge stratospheric warming event and it looks like the AO will stay negative through March into early April. 

This cold spell is probably just the start in a series of events! 

I like cold weather as much as the next bloke but by the end of March I'll be looking for some warmth. Never mind April. With this in mind it will probably be cold til mid May.