North west regional discussion

[itsnowjoke]

Get some paracetamol while I'm there no excuses 

[Deep Snow please]

So is anyone in here looking at the GFS? Easterly's don't bring us snow. Well polar lows do! That GFS run is simply incredible.

[pip22]

3 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

So is anyone in here looking at the GFS? Easterly's don't bring us snow. Well polar lows do! That GFS run is simply incredible.

If this keeps up we could be seeing the Mother of all Easterlies!!

Edited February 19, 2018 by pip22

[Wardlegacy]

Just now, pip22 said:

If this keeps up we could be seeing the Mother of all Easterlies!!

Not going to get too excited about a pub run over a week out!

[Deep Snow please]

1 minute ago, pip22 said:

If this keeps up we could be seeing the Mother of all Easterlies!!

It's madness. Expecting a downgrade tomorrow (but I said that last night and this afternoon) however that is the first model run I've ever looked at and thought "that's going to test our infrastructure, please bring in the mild air now" in the 8 years I've been semi-regularly following them when a cold spells on the horizon (although I may have become a bit obsessed the past few days). The thing is it doesn't it just keeps going into the middle of March with snow and cold. 

[Ice Man 85]

Stop and think people! The hospitals? Food? Animals? All would suffer once this pathetic country grinds to a halt. Hate me if you must, but I am starting to hope these runs get watered down to something more reasonable.

[snowydog]

2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

It really depends how far N the instability gets. if we manage to find ourselves under the blue areas on the pressure charts then, given the projected uppers, there is no reason why showers wouldn't be able to penetrate this far in land. Bear in mind that by now the sun is strong enough to initiate some over land convection. Therefore, any showers during the daytime should be able to sustain over land where they might not be able to in December and January.

Even if we miss the core instability, there seems to be a wide spread of low 850s outside of this core zone which would bring night temps down to about -10C IMO under clear skies.

Hey. Sorry not normally in this thread, but I've possible travel next week to the NW (plus I used to spend my summers between Blackpool, Liverpool and the Lake District ?, therefore I also love this part of the country) 

Anyway - I'm interested in what you said about land convection and the sun etc. I'm not very knowledgable but would appreciate learning what you mean by this / why that is the case? 

Thanks ?

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

While on my break will leave this here!! 

[severe snowstorm]

The models seem to be upgrading the cold on each run and some seriously impressive charts are now coming out. I still remain cautious. How 'locked in' is this cold spell? All major models are on board but I'm guessing we could still wake up one morning to see charts which are the polar opposite, eg see a sudden model flip? At the moment it just seems to be upgrades to the cold.

[SP1986]

I'd say it's as locked in as a bolted door. I'd be very surprised if there was a huge change. It may meander around a bit with regards to severity but the pattern is happening make no doubt about it 

[Vix]

Feb 20th 5.55am Stockport, extremely loud rumble like a bomb going off, my house shook slightly. Don't know whether this was a mini quake similar to the one in Wales on Saturday, or 10 large lorries passing by (joke).

Not seen anything on the news about it, but will be watching out.

[Deep Snow please]

2 hours ago, Dexter said:

The models seem to be upgrading the cold on each run and some seriously impressive charts are now coming out. I still remain cautious. How 'locked in' is this cold spell? All major models are on board but I'm guessing we could still wake up one morning to see charts which are the polar opposite, eg see a sudden model flip? At the moment it just seems to be upgrades to the cold.

It's going to be cold - almost guaranteed. The question marks are how cold, how snowy and how long. 

Yet another morning of expected downgrades not materialising...

[Day 10]

Another quick post from me wish I had more time, those worrying this HISTORIC cold spell won't deliver well believe me it will. It we hit the East first no doubt but this is a true BEAST truly awsome charts coming out. The whole of the UK is going to see powder snow  at some point in the next few weeks. I am doing a bloody big shop when I get home before panic sets in. This could seriously test the UK network from top to bottom. The only negative is homeless and animals are going to suffer big time! Right got to go, have a good day all, excitement should be growing!!!

[Deep Snow please]

6 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Another quick post from me wish I had more time, those worrying this HISTORIC cold spell won't deliver well believe me it will. It we hit the East first no doubt but this is a true BEAST truly awsome charts coming out. The whole of the UK is going to see powder snow  at some point in the next few weeks. I am doing a bloody big shop when I get home before panic sets in. This could seriously test the UK network from top to bottom. The only negative is homeless and animals are going to suffer big time! Right got to go, have a good day all, excitement should be growing!!!

We're still a few days out. Not panicking until I'm still seeing these charts on Friday. 

[Miamay]

Certainly seems like some exciting weather ahead 

[severe snowstorm]

25 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

It's going to be cold - almost guaranteed. The question marks are how cold, how snowy and how long. 

Yet another morning of expected downgrades not materialising...

Yes, it is fascinating model watching. Every day I keep expecting a downgrade or watering down of the cold, but the opposite seems to be true! I'm still cautious and of course we won't know about snow potential until nearer the time but we are certainly on the cusp of something special.

[trickydicky]

People are going on about infrastructure and how we don’t be able to manage. We (parts of the UK) have seen deep cold and heavy disruptive snow this decade. Not in the 1890’s, the 1940’s or whenever, in all of our relatively recent memory. Nothing stopped (apart from maybe sheep farming briefly) and we all got on as normal. We all have enough food, clothes, body fat and whatever else to see it out without worry. So with that in mind, let’s enjoy it! 

[Deep Snow please]

6 minutes ago, trickydicky said:

People are going on about infrastructure and how we don’t be able to manage. We (parts of the UK) have seen deep cold and heavy disruptive snow this decade. Not in the 1890’s, the 1940’s or whenever, in all of our relatively recent memory. Nothing stopped (apart from maybe sheep farming briefly) and we all got on as normal. We all have enough food, clothes, body fat and whatever else to see it out without worry. So with that in mind, let’s enjoy it! 

I think it's the road network that's the main concern - some of the forecasts are blizzards lasting days and we all know how will grit works in them. The NHS is already in crisis mode as well, so all the extra falling old ladies and pneumonia cases could cause it to struggle even more.

 

We'll get through it we always do, but I don't have confidence for the government to plan properly. I remember in Jan and Nov 2010 schools, workplaces and public transport completely shut down for a few days in my area. 

Edited February 20, 2018 by Deep Snow please

[karyo]

I can't believe that we have a good chance to experience the most exciting weather in years and some people want the cold spell to downgrade so that the infrastructure and the birds don't suffer! 

We experience boring, benign, mild, sleep inducing weather all year round and with climate change cold spells get less frequent and severe so why should we feel guilty for craving this event? 

I hope the charts stay as they are until they get to T0. Nature will cope and if a school closes for a day the world won't collapse. 

[Iceaxecrampon]

1 minute ago, karyo said:

I can't believe that we have a good chance to experience the most exciting weather in years and some people want the cold spell to downgrade so that the infrastructure and the birds don't suffer! 

We experience boring, benign, mild, sleep inducing weather all year round and with climate change cold spells get less frequent and severe so why should we feel guilty for craving this event? 

I hope the charts stay as they are until they get to T0. Nature will cope and if a school closes for a day the world won't collapse. 

What Easterly?

[Iceaxecrampon]

1 hour ago, Deep Snow please said:

I think it's the road network that's the main concern - some of the forecasts are blizzards lasting days and we all know how will grit works in them. The NHS is already in crisis mode as well, so all the extra falling old ladies and pneumonia cases could cause it to struggle even more.

 

We'll get through it we always do, but I don't have confidence for the government to plan properly. I remember in Jan and Nov 2010 schools, workplaces and public transport completely shut down for a few days in my area. 

Its called time to "Cabin Up".

[karyo]

5 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

What Easterly?

Are you looking at precipitation charts nearly a week away? 

[itsnowjoke]

5 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

What Easterly?

I live in that grey patch too 

[Deep Snow please]

There's definitely something in the air. Most excited this forum has been for several years, and possibly a bit to easy to get swept up in it. 

Even if this fails miserably there's still the possibility of easily beating the winter's deepest snowfall so far - 3 inches on the 11th February - given that's from the wrong wind direction and in late February/early March that speaks volumes for the sheer insanity of the synoptics. I must admit I may be starting to go from "these are great charts" to "this is a great event" in my thinking.

2 minutes ago, itsnowjoke said:

I live in that grey patch too 

But look at what's following behind it - more than enough for a good covering, anyway precipitation charts that far in the future are toilet paper.  

Edited February 20, 2018 by Deep Snow please

[Hocus Pocus]

4 minutes ago, karyo said:

Are you looking at precipitation charts nearly a week away? 

The sad part is that you could almost say with some degree of  certainty how that chart will no doubt verify. ?